My take on Suppan, in part

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 20, 2006 11:45 AM CST in Milwaukee Brewers News

Since Jeff Suppan has been slow to sign, and there haven't been a lot of offers floating around, I used today's Hardball Times article to look at just how much money he might get. Read the article for the details and the methodology, but judging by the contracts that other free-agent starters have gotten, Suppan ought to be worth something like $11M per year. No surprise there--that seems to be the consensus, give or take a million.

Obviously, that's a lot of dough. Especially if it takes a four or five year deal to sign him, which it probably will. Now, there's no disputing the fact that Suppan would add something to most teams--he may be a mid-rotation starter, but mid-rotation starters are extremely valuable. Heck, the difference between Suppan and Barry Zito may only be about one marginal win. Granted, Zito isn't everything some teams seem to think he is, but he's the only other solid option out there.

Based on Suppan's numbers, he should be worth about two wins above a "bench player" over a full season. Last year, Zach Jackson fit the Win Shares definition of a bench player, as did Rick Helling. Carlos Villanueva was a bit above that last year, but I would assume that he'll take a step back in his second time around the league. Given that Claudio Vargas is also a big question mark, I think it's safe to say that we'll have 30 "bench player" starts next year if we do nothing to change the rotation.

Thus, adding Suppan ought to be worth about two wins to this team. In other words, if the team, as currently constructed, would win 81 games, it would win 83 with Suppan. Not a huge difference, of course, especially for a $45 million contract.

But that's one of the main points I led up to in my article: it all depends on what two wins those are!

In general, then, the teams considering adding one of these two starters are making the same kinds of decisions clubs face at the trading deadline: are we in it or not? The value of Suppan to the Brewers or Zito to the Rangers is not entirely encapsulated in the numbers above: it depends on whether those teams view themselves as two or three wins away from a playoff spot.

As bizarre as it may have sounded even a few months ago, if the addition of Jeff Suppan turns a team into a Wild Card winner, he probably will have been worth $11 million. Even if he doesn't repeat as championship series MVP.

As some of the discussion in this thread has made clear, there's a lot of variation among Brewers fans as to just how much hope we should have. It seems like a stretch to project the 2006 Brewers as, say, an 86-win team that the addition of Suppan would turn into an 88-win team. If this is yet another consolidation year in which we'll be lucky to break even, it would be dumb for us to spend the money on Suppan. If we're going for it, that's a different story.

Now, the Pirates? That's a completely different story. They'll be lucky to break 75 wins this year, and I would imagine Suppan will require a larger contract to go toil in Pittsburgh. Especially for a team with so much young pitching (albeit some of it mediocre), that would be a horrible contract. Maybe the money's there and they have to spend it on something, but...sheesh.

Systematically evaluating just how good this Brewers team will be is another topic for another day, but that's a very important part of deciding whether to shell out the cash for Suppan. If you think we're within striking distance of the Wild Card, he's probably the best available option (besides Zito, who we're not getting) to put us there. If you think we're going for the gold in 2008, we ought to wait and sign a mid-level starting pitcher next year.

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80 vs. 90

The stuff about the wins is key here. Can we really say that we expect the team to win 86 games in 2007? I'd like to think it's possible, but in the case that it's not, is it worth it to invest now in Suppan, banking that his "2 wins" will put us over the top in 2008 or 2009, assuming he's still a two-win player by then? If nothing else, I don't think we're winning it all in 2007, in which case I think it's better to hold off and see what two wins might do for us in 2008, and to see if we can get those two wins for less commitment, or for cheaper than what Suppan will charge for them. Here's a list of some free agent SP after the 2007 season:

Mark Buehrle
Odalis Perez
Casey Fossum
Kris Benson
Paul Byrd
Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon
Jason Jennings
Shawn Chacon
Freddy Garcia
Livan Hernandez
Rodrigo Lopez
Wade Miller
Carlos Zambrano
Tim Wakefield
Curt Schilling
Joel Piniero
Kip Wells
Jaret Wright
Jake Westbrook

I mean, there are a number of guys on this list that I'd take over Suppan, and if the free agent class is actually this deep (i.e. if half these guys don't sign extensions/contracts midseason), then we're looking at a good thing for the Brewers. I'd put in for Buehrle, Westbrook, Zambrano, or Garcia without thinking about it, and a handful of other guys might be just as useful and cheaper than Suppan.

Really, I'd wait if I was Doug Melvin. Don't do something just to do it. Let the Pirates do that.

by baumann on Dec 20, 2006 12:11 PM CST reply actions

one possibility...

If you think we're going for the gold in 2008, we ought to wait and sign a mid-level starting pitcher next year.

What if Suppan-level pitchers are going for 15m/year in the next off-season? I don't think it's likely, but then few people expected the crazy contracts being handed out this year, either...

by Zeyes on Dec 20, 2006 6:30 PM CST reply actions

My guess

Looking at that list of FA pitchers, here are my guesses for which of those pitchers will not be FAs after they sign extensions before next offseason....

Jason Jennings-signs with Astros, that would help them save face after the trade they made for him.

Carlos Zambrano-Cubs sign him if they have enough money left over. He likes it there.

Tim Wakefield-Either retires or Red Sox pick up another of his endless options

Curt Schilling-signs with Sox again or retires

I think those 4 are the most likely to come off the market before the bidding wars begin again next year.

by Dutch on Dec 20, 2006 7:10 PM CST reply actions

That sounds reasonable.

I'm hoping that Zambrano's available, but I think it's more likely that he either signs an extension mid-season, or uses the market to up his price and the resigns with the Cubs anyway.

I don't think, Zeyes, that mid-rotation guys will be more next year, because there are more guys available.

If not Zambrano, I'll settle for Westbrook. He should go for less than $10mil per, and he's another healthy workhorse that can at least post a 2:1 K:BB ratio. He also has a microscopic HR/9. I'd give him 4 and $36.

by baumann on Dec 20, 2006 8:42 PM CST up reply actions

M-M-M-M BAD

Suppan is a fine mid-rotation starter, but the
timing isn't right. If we had been close to the playoffs last season it would be different.
The healthy price tag would tie up the payroll for too long. Besides, this team should get better this season, and there someone named Gallardo who could join Sheets, Cappy and Bush
in '08...and Inman perhaps by '09. It would be wiser to save the bucks for a big bat in 08!

by rugger54929 on Dec 20, 2006 9:19 PM CST reply actions

Melvin confirms offer to Suppan

sorry, i'm in the midst of finals week so i haven't been keeping up with the site lately so i don't know if this has been discussed, but this was posted on the journal sentinel a couple hours ago:

Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin confirmed this morning that he made a four-year offer to free-agent pitcher Jeff Suppan during a meeting earlier in the week in Los Angeles with Suppan and his agent, Scott Leventhal.
That meeting was held at the home of Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, who took part in the discussions.
Melvin wouldn't reveal details of the Brewers' offer but based on the market for free-agent pitchers this winter, it probably included yearly salaries in the $10 million neighborhood.
"I feel good about our offer," said Melvin. "I'm not saying we'll get him but I feel we made a competitive offer. We'll wait to hear back from them."
Melvin, manager Ned Yost and Attanasio met for five hours Tuesday with Suppan and Leventhal at Attanasio's house in Los Angeles. Melvin then had lunch with Leventhal on Wednesday to finalize the club's offer.
"We had a good meeting," said Melvin. "Mark, Ned and I got to know Jeff a little bit. We had dinner and everything went well."
Melvin tried to convince Leventhal and Suppan that the Brewers are focused exclusively on signing the 31-year-old right-hander who pitched for St. Louis the past three seasons.
Leventhal and Suppan also met with a contingent from the New York Mets, who are trying to sign left-hander Barry Zito, considered the top pitcher on the free agent market.
Suppan is believed to be Plan B for the Mets if they do not sign Zito.
Melvin said he hopes to hear back from Leventhal on Friday with a response to the club's offer. But Melvin conceded that Leventhal might wait until Zito signs, which would leave Suppan as the top pitcher on the market.
"That's probably what will happen," said Melvin. "We can't do anything about that. All we can do is make what we feel is a legitimate offer and take care of things from our end."
Suppan went 12-7 with a 4.12 ERA in 32 starts for St. Louis last season. He was named most valuable player of the NLCS after holding the Mets to one run in 15 innings in his two starts.

by Griswald on Dec 21, 2006 10:40 AM CST reply actions

Noooooooooooo

oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

by baumann on Dec 21, 2006 3:41 PM CST up reply actions

It's Not Our Money...

I don't see Suppan as the best option either, but I think we forget sometimes that it's not our money. It's not my 40 million bucks. If it will improve the team, then I say do it. Pitchers are gonna be getting 10 million a year from now on; that's just the sad truth. Attanasio is a bazillionaire; so I say sign the guy. He is always gonna try to improve this team; and just cause he signs Suppan, doesn't mean he won't make a run for another big name guy next season or the season after that. I'm worried that Suppan is already 32; but he might fit in well with this team.

by engbjm06 on Dec 22, 2006 9:43 AM CST reply actions

That's kinda the Kow's point

And it's a good one, though I think Battlekow was referring to other signings this season, and not necessarily 2008 and 2009. It really depends on what this signing would mean. At its most basic, signing Suppan would help the team, so sure, it's a good move.

I think most of the concern is that Mark A. has said the payroll is going up by about...well, the cost of getting Suppan, I suppose. It would seem that if we splurge on Suppan, we're not going to have the payroll to go after anyone else this year.

(Which doesn't mean the team can't be improved via trades, of course.)

I think if we had solved our outfield dilemma and our offense looked somewhat credible (and, honestly, it doesn't right now), THEN everyone would be a lot more optimistic about signing the Big Soup. The biggest fear is that by going after Soup now, we're not going to have the financial wherewithal to improve our outfield/offense.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Dec 22, 2006 10:54 AM CST up reply actions

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