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Speaking of the Cubs...

We were having some discussions in this thread about the Cubs' chances in the NL Central, for the most part concluding they would again be well out of first at the end of the year. I would personally agree with that, as well.

Star-divide

I came across this article that concludes the opposite. Except that the writer, uh, didn't really give any reasons.

That is, beyond this juicy little passage:

But the best thing the Cubs have going for them is a midmarket division and the winter of discontent for both Houston and St. Louis, not to mention the usual helping of Milwaukee, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

Putting aside the Brewers' chances, that's basically the whole argument that the Cubs will contend. Sure, the Cubs aren't that good, but neither is anyone else.

I'm sure Jeff and Jacob will add more, but perhaps he forgot they finished in fourth with 79 wins last year and also didn't make any vast improvements (sans Pierre)? If his logic holds up then the Cubs would just finish in fourth again wouldn't they?

But then again, I guess it is all summed up by the final passage of the article:

All you need is a little help from above.

With that team, nothing more need be said.

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments

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Wow.
That's really silly.  As you say, no major improvements for the Cubs.  Let's be crazy optimistic and say that Pierre + a more expensive bullpen + better general health = 10 more wins, for 89 wins.  That still requires the Cardinals to lose ELEVEN more games just to tie.  Cards may be midmarket, but they are a very, very good team.  I don't see them hitting 100 again, but Grudz -> Spivey, Walker -> Encarnacion, and Sanders -> J-Rod isn't a downgrade of more than maybe five or six wins.  

And the scary thought is this: Pujols just turned 26 last month.  He is just entering his prime.  The guy who has consistently been one of the top five hitters in the game for the last five years may get better.  He had an off year last year.

I try to steer clear of hints of profanity on this site, but that's f'ing scary.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 10, 2006 6:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

riiiiight...
You also forgot the chestnut Cubs fans always roll out that starts "If our pitching is healthy this year..." which, to the best of my knowledge, has never happened yet with their arms.

Sure, if Baker doesn't run their starters to death and Wood finally looks like the player everyone thought he'd be when he fanned twenty... 8 years ago.

Never underestimate the Cubs fan's capacity for self-delusion.

by Acheron on Feb 11, 2006 3:45 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

funny.
It is pretty funny the way he looked the Milwaukee Brewers, who have been finishing AHEAD of the Cubs in the standings since 2005.

(i really should get those t-shirts made up.)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 11, 2006 12:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

yargh
that should read:

"It is pretty funny the way he looked PASTthe Milwaukee Brewers."

sorry.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 11, 2006 12:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Defending the Cubs
"[i]I'm sure Jeff and Jacob will add more, but perhaps he forgot they finished in fourth with 79 wins last year and also didn't make any vast improvements (sans Pierre)? If his logic holds up then the Cubs would just finish in fourth again wouldn't they?[i]"

Well yes and no. No other big name acquisitions, but lets look at what has and hasn't changed.

In CF last year was Corey Patterson, whom I sure you all know did terribly. I mean AWFUL. Just getting rid of him and his terrible BA and OBP at the top of the lineup is addition by subtraction, let alone replacing him with a terrific leadoff hitter in Juan Pierre.

In LF last year, there was Todd Hollandsworth, Jason DuBois, Jody Gerut, and other assorted junk until Matt Murton came on the scene. During that brief time he hit .321.386/.521. Now obviously, he's due to drop from that, but he should be much more productive.

At SS we had Neifi Perez almost all year. Think about that. I'm talking .274/.298/.383 at the 1 or 2 spot all year. It's shambolic. He will be replaced by Ronny Cedeno. He played for the Aragua Tigres in winter ball and batted .355 with nine doubles, four triples and 28 RBIs in 45 games. He was named Rookie of the Year in the Venezuelan league. Again due to drop, but how could he fail to be worse than a whole year of Neifi?

In RF we signed Jacque Jones. Generally, I'd say he'll produce like Jeromy Burnitz last year, but with a bit more speed. So that's a wash.

As per the Closer, we now have a definite one this year, and he'll start closing from the beginning of the season, instead of 1/3 of the way into it. That should tack on another couple wins from last year's Latroy Hawkins fiasco.

Hopefully this year Todd Walker won't have his knee broken again by Carlos Lee either.

We've addressed a key weakness in the offseason by signing Howry and Eyre. The bullpen, especially with the experience the rookies got last year, should be much, much stronger last year. This has the added effect of allowing our starters to leave the games earlier if need be.

Speaking of starters:

Prior: Hopefully won't get another line drive at his elbow or collide with a second baseman again. He should be healthy all year. I'm not worried about him. We'll benefit from more starts from him.

Zambrano: The guy is a monster. Also, it seems he never breaks down. He also lost 15 pounds over the offseason.

Wood: True wild card. When he does pitch, he's good. For two years however, he's done little of that.

So basically the Cubs have either improved upon their previous position or it's been a wash in changes. People are assuming injuries are gonna happen to this club. And that's a correction assertion because injuries happen TO EVERY CLUB. To beleive the Cubs are going to be more injured than any other team is superstition.

I'm not imagining that the Cubs are gonna run away with the division, but I think you've seen the Cardinals (position-wise and bullpen-wise) and the Astros get weaker this offseason, and I think the Cubs have a good shot at making the playoffs.

by BalsaWoodKeyBoard on Feb 18, 2006 8:49 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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