Starting lineup predictions

by Griswald on Feb 9, 2006 12:46 AM CST Comment 22 comments

With the re-signing of Clark today, I thought it might be time to predict what the most consistent starting lineup would be for the Crew in '06. It may be a little early, but at least it's February now, right?

So here's what I got:

Clark, CF (R)
Hardy, SS (R) (continuing on last year's success)
Weeks, 2B (R) (probably not right away but my gut says he'll find the 3 hole and get comfortable)
Lee, LF (R) (more consistency from Carlos this year after a year of NL pitching)
Jenkins, RF (L)
Fielder, 1B (L) (I foresee him coming out of games if the opposition brings in a lefty out of the pen, and probably sitting a lot against starting southpaws in favor of Hart or Hall. He'll have his lumps like Rickie and JJ did last year)
Koskie, 3B (L)
Miller, C (R)
pitcher

Hmmmm. Looking at this lineup I just made some things jump out at me. First of all, that is not a bad lineup at all. I'd be really comfortable if that unit stayed healthy all year, and you throw in the depth we will have this year - from veterans like Cirillo to youngsters like Hart and Hall - and this is dare I say pretty solid.

But just in the order itself, the way I have it has four right handers at the top, followed by three left-handers. So that probably won't happen, so depending on how Koskie is, maybe he moves up to the 2 and JJ moves back? I personally like Hardy at the 2 because he makes contact and would be able to play the small ball before Lee et al get their cracks.

Also, Jenkins-Fielder back to back kind of scares me, because if they both struggle at the same time, that's a lot of K's in the 5-6 spots. Of course, this is all hypothetical. Any other thoughts?

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Here's my guess

Clark, CF (R).
Hardy, SS (R).
Koskie, 3B (L). Professional hitter, plus starts the L/R switcheroo in the lineup. (I just like saying switcheroo.)
Lee, LF (R).
Jenkins, RF (L).
Weeks, 2B (R).
Fielder, 1B (L).
Miller, C (R)
Mystery Pitcher.

Kind of weird to bat Prince so low, but yeah, I think you have to assume he'll struggle in the first half. If he does well, or if they want to move him up so he'll see better pitches...

Clark, CF (R).
Hardy, SS (R).
Jenkins, RF (L).
Lee, LF (R).
Fielder, 1B (L).
Weeks, 2B (R).
Koskie, 3B (L).
Miller, C (R)
Mystery Pitcher.

This lineup makes more sense to me --- maybe this is what they'd open the season with.

What do you think?

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Darren Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Feb 9, 2006 6:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

yost & weeks

I don't think Yost understands what type of hitter Weeks is yet, as we saw with him leading off while clark was DL'ed last year.

Most interesting in the lineup will be where yost puts weeks.

i think Neddy will start the season like this:

clark
weeks
jenkins
lee
fielder
koskie
hardy
miller

i think he should go like this:

clark
hardy
fielder
weeks
jenkins
lee
koskie
miller

it's going to change from day to day anyway with Hall getting in and out of the lineup.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 9, 2006 10:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Jacob's right on the mark...

...in that it'll change every day. Billy can hit just about anywhere...I wouldn't want his K's in the #1 slot and maybe not #2 either, but he can as has hit everywhere else. It'll be interesting to see whether the rest of the lineup is consistent (and injury-free) enough so that Billy just slots in wherever the guy he's replacing usually hits.

But the big question is probably where to hit Prince, as you guys have already suggested. I'd guess he'll start at #6 or so, move up to #5 pretty quickly, and if Jenkins goes down, or even on Geoff's off days, he could hit third. I agree with Griswald, though, Weeks could be a great #3 hitter--certainly, if he's hitting .290 or better, he should be up at #3 rather than down at 6 or 7.

Now the real question--will Ben Sheets pull a Dontrelle on us and deserve to hit in the #8 spot?

Tee hee.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 9, 2006 12:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

dude...

...hold the phones. I didn't read your post carefully enough the first time, I guess.

Lee #6? Wow. Wanna say more about why you think Ned should do that? I don't necessarily disagree, but...you could start a flamewar on the brewerfan boards if you said that...

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 9, 2006 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

#6

I guess I have a much different philosophy on batting orders than the traditional theories.

What i set up there was as pseudo 1-2-3, 1-2-3
with Lee being the second number three hitter.

Also, I want my best hitters lower in the lineup than tradition dictates, I think a lot of 4 or 5 hitters should actually be 6 hitters. It's ALL about seeing pitches.

Jenkins needs good pitches to survive as a hitter. Lee doesn't. Lee is a good enough hitter, with enough patience at the plate and enough control over the strike zone that he doesn't need protection the way Jenkins needs protection.

So in the lineup I've got together you don't walk jenkins to pitch to lee, you don't walk weeks to get to jenkins and you certainly don't walk fielder to get to weeks.

The easier outs, (hardy, fielder, weeks) theoretically anyway, come earlier in the lineup then the experienced hitters in jenkins and lee. With it flopped you can pitch around the good hitters and go after the "easier outs". with it inverted. anytime one of the "easier outs" gets on base it's an RBI opportunity for the best hitters.

The difference between batting 4,5 or 6 and the impact on the offense you have is negligible. The only tangible things here, i think, are the R, L thing, and protection.

The serious problem with this lineup up though is the 2 on 1 out with jenkins at the plate, the GIDP and Lee leading off the next inning.

eh, i could just as easily see, and be happy with this:

clark
hardy
fielder
lee
jenkins
weeks
koskie
miller

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 9, 2006 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think...

if batting averages were all about 100 points higher, so the probability of having people on base is higher, that makes a lot of sense. But as is, I'm not sure the benefits would outweigh the disadvantage of getting Lee 50+ fewer plate appearances over the course of the season.

But it's all quibbling over details...a bunch of studies have shown you can't do THAT much by tweaking the lineup. It seems like you want to set up the first inning, b/c that's the one you can control; you want to get your good hitters higher up, so they get more PAs; and with relief pitching these days (especially against LaRussa), you want to alternate L/R as much as practical.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 9, 2006 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fielder

The problem, at least imho, is that we really don't have much of a sense as to what kind of hitter Prince will be. Sure, he'll hit them out of the park --- but when he's not sending Bernie down the slide, will he have the patience to take a walk, or to settle for a single up the middle? If he turns into Rob Deer, I don't see any scenario where you could bat him higher than 5th or 6th.

What do you think?

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Darren Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Feb 9, 2006 4:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

we know SOME

...usually patience is a skill that players carry with them from the minors to the majors. There might be an adjustment period, but in the long term we can expect Prince to walk a lot. His totals were 71 BBs (502 ABs) in '03, 65 BBs (497 ABs) in '04, then 54 BBs in 378 ABs last year in Nashville.

For reference, the walk leader on the team last year was Lyle with 78 followed by Lee and Jenkinss at 57 and 56. If he does in fact keep that up, he might be a great guy to slot in at #3--despite the strikeouts and less than exemplary footspeed, he'll often turn a one on, one out threat into a two on, one out threat with Lee at the plate...that's when he doesn't turn it into a 2-0 lead :).

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 9, 2006 5:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

just noticed

Prince's minor league OBP is .398! That's with a BA of .297. If he can stay anywhere near that (granted...a big if), he belongs in the 3 hole.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 9, 2006 5:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Starting Lineups

To me, there are two questions outstanding.

Will Hardy have the OBP to be a #2 hitter?
How fast does Prince Fielder start crushing MLB pitching?

Based on what I know now, and my guesses, here's the lineup I would use. I'm optimistic on Weeks and Fielder developing, so that's my basis for htis.

VS RHP
Clark
Koskie
Lee
Fielder
Weeks
Jenkins
Hardy
Miller

VS LHP
Clark
Hardy
Lee
Weeks
Fielder
Hall
Jenkins
Miller

Jenkins Ks vs L don't hurt me as much. If Hardy gets his OBP vs R above 360, then he slots up to the number 2 spot, and Koskie gets shifted down.

by Matt L on Feb 10, 2006 1:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting.

I would hesitate to put Carlos in the #3 spot, since he could have one of the lowest OBPs of a regular this year.

But if this thread has shown us anything, its that we've got a very, very versatile lineup, especially if the 2 or more of Fielder, Weeks, and Hardy perform as expected.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 10, 2006 1:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Carlos Lee #3

I understand that reservation, I put him there for a couple reasons.

At least to start off the year, I wanted a veteran in the #3 spot. It's the highest profile spot in the order. The eliminated Weeks and Fielder for me.
Jenkins is lefty, which means I'd want to put Hardy at #2 over Koskie, in order not to have two lefties back to back that don't really do much against lefty pitchers.
This may be pure superstition, but here are Jenkins' and Lee's OPS for the last 4 years

Jenkins: 764, 913, 798, 888
Lee: 843, 830, 891, 811

It will also be Lee's second time through the NL, so he'll have seen more of the pitchers before.

4) Another superstitious reason is that Lee is playing for a contract this season.

by Matt L on Feb 11, 2006 6:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

to watch for a big year from Carlos. And everything fit together nicely for Geoff last year...maybe we can't expect the same from him this year. And I think most of us agree, at least to some extent, that the L/R swap should be maximized, especially since we've got a strong lineup with three quality LH guys in Koskie, Fielder, and Jenks.

If Carlos bounces back to his 2004 OBP of .366, then fantastic, he can bat wherever he wants! If not, it'd be equally fantastic if Rickie turns into a 30 HR guy and slots in there.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 11, 2006 6:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Adam McCalvy at MLB.com

The guy who covers the Brewers at MLB.com made his own (puzzling) starting lineup projections as well:

Projected batting order
1. CF Brady Clark:
.306 BA, 94 R, 12 HR in 2005
2. 2B Rickie Weeks:
.239 BA, 13 HR, 42 RBIs in 2005
3. RF Geoff Jenkins:
.292 BA, 25 HR, 86 RBIs in 2005
4. LF Carlos Lee:
.265 BA, 32 HR, 114 RBIs in 2005
5. 1B Prince Fielder:
.291, 28 HR, 86 RBIs with Triple-A in 2005
6. C Damian Miller:
.273 BA, 9 HR, 43 RBIs in 2005
7. 3B Corey Koskie:
.249, 11 HR, 36 RBIs with Toronto in 2005
8. SS J.J. Hardy:
.247 BA, 9 HR, 50 RBIs in 2005

Projected rotation

Ben Sheets, 10-9, 3.33 ERA in 2005
Doug Davis, 11-11, 3.84 ERA in 2005
Chris Capuano, 18-12, 3.99 ERA in 2005
Tomo Ohka, 11-9, 4.04 ERA in 2005
Dave Bush or Rick Helling

Projected bullpen
Closer: Derrick Turnbow, 39 saves, 1.74 ERA in 2005
RH setup man: Dan Kolb, 5.93 ERA with Atlanta in 2005
RH setup man: Matt Wise, 3.36 ERA in 2005

I guess I have a hard time seeing Weeks as #2 in the lineup. I always consider the #2 guy as where you put a professional hitter, one who can sacrifice if needed, hit the ball to the right side if needed, set everything up for the mashers. I don't think Weeks is ---or maybe will ever be --- that guy, plus unless you plan to run him a lot in front of Jenkins, Lee, et al., you don't really capitalize on his speed. (Imagine if Weeks leads off some day? Frightening.)

Plus it has Hardy and Koskie next to each other in the lineup at the bottom. Not that they're dead weight in the lineup --- not at all --- but I envision them as more OBP guys than ones who will regularly hit the ball out of the park. I think you only put them at the bottom of the lineup if you want to see the pitcher end a lot of rallies with runners on base, and we had plenty of guys LOB last year.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Darren Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Feb 11, 2006 7:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

weeks

you are right about weeks. Also, i think he really could hit 30 HRs next year. Seriously. His power is wasted in the two hole.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 11, 2006 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

clark

the only thing we seem to agree on is Clark at the top of the order.

Clark
Weeks, Hardy, Koskie
Weeks, Fielder, Lee, Koskie, Jenkins
Weeks, Fielder, Lee
Weeks, Fielder, Jenkins
Weeks, Fielder, Lee, Koskie, Jenkins, Hall, Miller
Koskie, Fielder, Hardy, Jenkins
Miller, Hardy

Votes so far, includes how people want to see it and how they think they'll see it.

Weeks could hit 2-6
Fielder could hit 3-7
Lee could hit 3,4 or 6 (i might have been the only one to say 6)
Jenkins could hit 3,5,6,7
Koskie could hit 2,3,6,7 (who had Koskie at 3? want to explain that one on a team with Jenkins, Lee, Weeks & Fielder?)

Quite a dynamic lineup. I'm sure Yost will use it that way too. At the end of the year I predict we will have seen 41 different lineups (not including pitchers).

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 11, 2006 12:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

If Clark fades

and Koskie has a big rebound, you could make a case for batting Hardy-Koskie 1-2 and moving Clark down to the seven spot.

Remember back in '04 when Brady was the 4th OF, he often slotted in in place of whoever he was subbing for, so he saw a lot of the 3, 5, and 6 holes. As "obvious" leadoff hitters go, Brady has a bit of power and way more experience than most batting farther down in the lineup.

Just being a contrarian :).

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 11, 2006 12:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

my vote

Clark
Koskie
Weeks
Fielder
Lee
Jenkins
Hardy
Miller

volatility early on but I see this being in place by may 1

by NedYostCoast2Coast on Feb 12, 2006 3:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

new info

according to this site

http://shegel4.mybesthost.com/ProjectionLineupToy.html

the best Brewers lineup would be
Clark
Weeks
Jenks
Fielder
Lee
Koskie
Hardy
Miller

by NedYostCoast2Coast on Feb 23, 2006 8:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

ehhh

Lee batting fifth and Fielder 4th? Interesting, but I don't know how much sense it would make at all. First you would have leftie-leftie back to back in the order, and you also have a largely unproven rookie ahead of an established veteran.

"Hardy to Weeks to Fielder for the double play!"

by Griswald on Feb 23, 2006 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

it's just a computer program

and I don't think it takes anything into account like all that. but why not put fielder ahead of lee? they'd be more likely to challenge prince there to avoid lee, wouldn't they? which would give him some good balls to hit. whereas putting him in front of koskie or hardy will just lead to lots of walks, which is fine and all sabermetrically but, y'know, not optimal.

by NedYostCoast2Coast on Feb 23, 2006 1:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

you'd think

the computer program would consider L/R balance, but yeah, it wouldn't pay attention to vets & rookies. I can see the merits of putting Prince up higher, if you think he's good for a .360-.370 OBP, whereas Lee is probably not.

I'm afraid we will see Prince walked a lot in the 6 hole...let's hope he has 12 HRs and a .420 OBP at the end of May and Ned has to move him up to #3 :).

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 23, 2006 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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