Brew Crew Ball: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Sounder At Heart for Seattle Sounders Fans!

The Ned Yost Lifetime Employment Program

Ned sez:

Yost also is taking extended looks at catchers Mark Johnson and Mike Rivera but downplayed the notion that Chad Moeller's job could be in jeopardy after his slow start (0 for 12, including four strikeouts in the Japanese exhibition game).

"We want to look at different guys," Yost said. "I played Jeff Cirillo at second base today. Does that mean Rickie Weeks should be worried? No. This is the time to look at guys."

I really don't understand why Ned doesn't put pressure on Moeller.  Maybe he thinks Chad will perform better without it; it's always possible there are back-office conversations that we're not privy to.  As we need to be reminded during Spring Training, what managers and GMs tell beat writers doesn't really tell us much until moves actually happen.

But here's what we do know.  

  1. Chad Moeller hasn't been good since 2003.  
  2. He just turned 31, so there's no reason to expect he's maturing or somehow "peaking" at this point in his career.  
  3. We have one organization soldier, Mark Johnson, who is at least as good (though probably not much better).  
  4. We have another journeyman in Mike Rivera who probably is better.
  5. Both Johnson and Rivera  would cost an extra $150k or so to put on the major league roster.  In other words, the cost of upgrading from Moeller to Rivera is negligable.  We'd be eating Moeller's $800k, but that's spent whether Chad plays for Milwaukee, Nashville, or Yomiuri.  
  6. Moeller's not a world-beating defender.  Neither is Rivera, but Rivera isn't bad--many observers think Moeller is.  

Moeller has never done anything on the field for Milwaukee to earn this kind of guarantee.  He may well have earned a S.T. invite, and a spot on the 40-man.  Heck, with the backup catchers available this offseason, Chad may deserve that $800k deal.  But bringing Moeller back and gifting him the backup catcher job is like giving Chris Magruder a deal, promising him a role as 5th OF, and then unthinkingly sending Gabe Gross to Nashville.  

Ouch.

0 recs  |  Comment 3 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

moeller's defense & more.
I always thought he was a great defender.

And something much harder to judge, I always thought he called a good game.

Hopefully Damian Miller starts 125 times like he wants to. The difference between Moeller and some other catcher is not going to make much of a difference.

Seems to me that the relationship Moeller has developed with the pitching staff is worth something as well.

Let's be generous and say Moeller gets 200 ABs, or any backup catcher whoever that might be. Let's look at Runs Created using OXS x AB.

Let's say Moeller repeats his '05 season and posts a 260/370 line for an OXS of .096. Using ZIPs for the other two, we can put together this chart:

Name OBP SLG OXS RC
Moeller .260 .370 .096 19.2
Rivera .280 .400 .112 22.4
Johnson .330 .340 .112 22.4


Very little difference, eh?

Well Ok, now let's say we got a backup catcher who was as good as Damian Miller (zips has him at 320/380) and our Damian Miller Clone got 200 ABs. Damian Miller Clone would create... <drumroll> ... 24.3 runs.

Our Damian Miller Clone outperforms Moeller by 5 runs over the course of 200 ABs. Only 5 Runs!

There is no way Moeller doesn't make the team, the "upgrade" offensively is not worth the experience Moeller has.

If Moeller repeats his 16 runs created from last year I'll be happy with that.
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Mar 16, 2006 9:41 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Okay...
...you sound more rational than I am.

I think ZiPS is regressing a bit too favorably for Chad though.  That seems like something that might be structurally wrong with the system--I know Dan regresses a lot, which makes sense for the vast majority of players.  But backup catchers, and maybe some middle infield scrubs are not "major league" hitters in the usual sense.  I mean, regress John Flaherty all you want, he'll still hit .200.  Chad looks to me more like John Flaherty than somebody primed to bounce back at age 31.

Just a thought.  Thanks for looking at that stuff...and you're probably right, I'm making a big deal over nothing.

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 16, 2006 2:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I take back some of that.
I saw Moeller's .260 and thought it was BA.  Duh.  I figure a .260 OBP is reasonable, not overly regressed.  

All hail ZiPS!

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 16, 2006 2:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Brew Crew Ball is dedicated to providing a friendly atmosphere for intelligent Brewer conversation. Click here to view our Posting Guide and Community Guidelines.
Start posting about the Brewers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Braun_fielder_small
Vazquez/Bradley
Barrelman_small
Just for Fun: Comparing Gomez and Gutierrez
Box_small
Low OBP + Young Player = What Kind of Career?
Barrelman_small
Updated 2010 Brewers Roster/Salary Predictions
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
2009 Offseason Free Agency Dates
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Speculationville: Glen Perkins
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Somebody Get Me My Cardboard: Bob Wolfley Breaks It Down
Small
Brewers Minor League Leaders thru the 00's - Strikeouts
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
JJ Hardy's Trade Value
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Tangentially related Brewers news

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Featured Poll

Poll
Who won the J.J. Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade?

  157 votes | Results

79 - 82

11

Won 3

1

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 28.5 Lost 2

(updated 11.9.2009 at 4:19 AM CST)

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Baseball, I wish I could quit you.
Reminder
The Pilots/Brewers First Home Game
You think you know the Brewers Farm System? You've got nothing on this guy.
Red Sox offered Bowden for Hardy?
Melvin: "We are going to consider [Lucroy] as a candidate
Hot Stove: Garland's option declined, will be a FA
Post on Minor League Ball asking for top 5 Brewers prospects
Alcides Escobar "abandoned his daughter before she was born"
Cain, Lucroy, Green in the lineup in the AFL tonight.

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


Moderators

U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small roguejim

Mordecai_brown_small Jeff Sackmann

Newavatar_small KLSnow

Box_small TheJay

Communist_party_small Jordan M

Contributors

Dsci0355_small kirbir

Picture_069_small tristarscoop

Dsc01174_small BrewHaHeather

Rubie_edited-1_small Rubie Q

Hikaru_50_small morineko

X1pxoywqu4sjf73f7drxq2lmqys7mzsyx7pa9necepiffk_ewcuwmuazb-o17ukmbriclcdkn4lk-4xposaawiq4j8hzdsccpjwatqpz2o2p-i0nnqjlyt7pmytaycsaknszvaktpshtcu9sjle1qchlw_1__small NoahJ

Hulk_buddy-icon_small Fatter than Joey