05/04/06 vs. San Francisco

by John on May 4, 2006 3:51 PM CDT in WPA Game Recaps

Brewers almost let that one get away with the dip in the seventh inning.

Top Win Expectancy shifts:
Carlos Lee, 1st inning HR (16.7%)
Mike Matheny, 7th inning HR to make score 5-4 (16.1%)
Geoff Jenkins, 7th inning HR to make score 7-4 (13.0%)

(Click on the graph for a larger version)

Top Brewers' Current Hitting Streaks:
Rickie Weeks - 6 games
Damian Miller - 3 games
Geoff Jenkins - 2 games

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It makes sense

but it's interesting that right after that dip in the 7th, the P-value was never that high. It would've gotten much, much higher had the Giants gotten a runner on after the Matheny dinger, but at least we didn't cut it that close.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 5, 2006 3:53 PM CDT reply actions

P Value Useful?

Does anyone find the P value useful? In the new version of the spreadsheet, the P and volitility values have been removed and replaced by a leverage index. The values of this index can be quite large and would make the Win Expectancy chart much smaller. In each situation, the leverage index is the difference between the Win Probability at that moment and the Win Probability of a strikeout. Should I continue to use the previous version and include the P value in the chart, or go with the new version and only provide the Win Expectancy? John

by John on May 5, 2006 6:14 PM CDT reply actions

Why not

Post a sample including leverage when you post the data for last night's game and let everyone eyeball it?

by battlekow on May 6, 2006 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions

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