Everyone, Dave Studeman has made some modifications to the WPA spreadsheet, which I use to create these charts and graphs. The P value was flawed and replaced by the Leverage Index (LI). The Leverage Index is a better measurement of the critical level at each point in the game. For example, in the chart below, the highest level of LI in the game last night was when Bill Hall tied the game in the 9th inning.
Because LI doesn't fit well into the WPA graph, I have reduced its size on the chart so it doesn't overpower the Win Expectancy line.
Please comment if the Leverage Index is of value to you, if you have ideas in how to display it, or if you'd like to disregard this measurement all together. I have also removed the gray background to improve the chart's clarity.
Top Win Expectancy shifts:
30.4% - Bill Hall's 9th inning single to tie the game at 4-4
29.8% - Nomar Garciaparra's 9th inning single to win the game 5-4
18.4% - Saenz's 8th inning double with the game tied 3-3, to put runners on first and second with no one out.
17.4% - Geoff Jenkins grounding into a double play in the 6th inning with runners on first and third, 1 out, and the game tied 3-3.
(Click on the graph for a larger version)