07/30/2006 vs. Cincinnati Reds

by John on Jul 30, 2006 4:33 PM CDT in WPA Game Recaps

Top Win Expectancy shifts:
16.0% - David Ross' 9th inning, 2-out game-ending ground out to third with runners on first and third and the Reds down 3-4.
11.3% - Juan Castro's 9th inning, 1-out, strikeout with a runner on second and Cincinnati down 3-4.
11.2% - Kevin Mench's 7th inning, 0-out, 3-run home run to increase Milwaukee's lead to 4-0.
10.2% - Brandon Phillips' 7th inning, 1-out double play ground out with the Reds down 0-1.
9.2% - Kevin Mench's 1st inning, 1-out, 1-run single to give the Brewers a 1-0 lead.

(Click on the graph for a larger version)

What is WPA?

Current Brewers' Hitting Streaks:
Brady Clark - 7 games
Jeff Cirillo - 4 games
Bill Hall - 4 games

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Wait, so...

The Reds only had a 16% chance of winning the game when Ross came to the plate? Hey guys, there was no reason to worry! Turnbow had that shit locked down tight.

by battlekow on Jul 30, 2006 5:06 PM CDT reply actions

well...

you gotta figure that the odds he gets on base are 35% or so, and even if he does, that only ties the game, at which point the Crew still has another time up. So there's only a 35% chance the Reds survive to have a 40% chance. Then there's the 5% or less chance that they score two...but still.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 30, 2006 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Jeff is right

The Brewers will still up by a run, with 2 outs to go. If Ross did get a hit, it would have been an even higher swing, but the Brewers would still have had a higher win expectancy in the tie.

"I think it's overrated. I think it takes away from the game. A lot of the guys with high on base percentages, they just clog the bases." -- Harold Reynolds

by John on Jul 31, 2006 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions

You guys...

Are totally missing the joke.

by battlekow on Jul 31, 2006 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions

i figured

it was half-joke, half-serious. I got the joke...but it's still an interesting problem. It certainly seemed like the Brewers were on the brink of blowing it...of course the potential was there, but it was a lot lower than most of us probably would've thought.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 31, 2006 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions

Forget it

It's a humorless blog. I'm making posts about Luna hitting moon shots, and it went over like a lead balloon. (Or a balluna.)

Sure, if we're the Yankees or Red Sox, we can afford the big-time humor. For a small market like ours, though, this is as good as it gets.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Jul 31, 2006 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions

by battlekow on Jul 31, 2006 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Yost on Sheets

"Benny didn't want to come out of the game," Yost said. "It made no sense to push him."

Right, except when it did.

by battlekow on Jul 30, 2006 6:40 PM CDT reply actions

Wait a minute

you're not questioning Neddy Ballgame, are you?

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Jul 30, 2006 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions

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