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Around SBN: Transfer Rumor: Bolton On Verge of First Signings

Sorting out the outfield

Since Ned doesn't know how he'll play everybody, let's help him out. We've got seven--maybe eight or nine--arguably Major League ready outfielders who could be in the organization next year. It seems like a foregone conclusion that Ned will misuse some of them this year; let's try to figure out what their roles should be next year.

  • Brady Clark: It has felt like he's been slumping most of the year, but he's been right in line with his career averages most of the way (after his dreadful start). He's getting on base at a .370 clip, and playing at least decent defense. He's signed for next year at $3.9 million, which could make him a commodity in the offseason. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in 2007 in some sort of time-share with Tony Gwynn.

  • Gabe Gross: Gabe is basically Brady Clark with some more pop--and less defensive acumen. He seems to me like a 4th OF on a good team--maybe a platoon guy for us. I wish he were a little better in the field: if he could develop into a credible centerfielder, he'd be worth a lot more to this team. He'll be around next year, but depending on who else is here with him, he could be caught in a playing-time bubble, especially if Corey Hart solidifies a starting role.

  • Tony Gwynn: TG Jr. has been one of the best surprises of the year, playing great D and hitting much better than expected at Triple-A. Like Gross, he may be caught in a numbers game: if Clark stays around to start and Gross or Hart is considered to be an option in CF, Gwynn could at least start the year back in the Minors. On the other hand, a strong spring would get him on the team--maybe even force Doug Melvin to trade Brady.

  • Bill Hall: He doesn't really belong on this list, but consider a possibility: if Koskie and Hardy come back healthy (especially if Cirillo is back, too), Clark gets traded, and Gwynn can't hack it at the plate, Billy might be the best option in center. I'd imagine that Ned will plow through some options--Nix, Gross in center, maybe even Dave Krynzel--before settling on Billy for the job, but it's conceivable. And really, it wouldn't be a bad move. JJ may never be the next Miguel Tejada (or even Alex Gonzalez) at the plate, but the dude can field. If Koskie and Cirillo platoon at third, something has to give to get Billy in the lineup every day. (Paging Ned: When I say "every day," I do not mean three, four, or five times per week. I mean every freaking day. He is your best hitter.) I'm convinced Hall can hack it in center--with a bit more practice, he may be above average and yet another difficult defensive position.

  • Corey Hart: He's started hitting for power, which just about erases the only question mark that was left about this guy. He may not be a great fielder, but the guy can hit. Along with Weeks and Fielder, this guy is a building block. He should be starting every day in left or right field. Ned just has to learn that Corey is not a leadoff hitter, not a "playmaker"--he's a slugger in the making, albeit one who can run.

  • Geoff Jenkins: We've talked about him enough. Maybe we can find somebody to take him. Hey, if Neifi Perez got traded, anything's possible.

  • Dave Krynzel: he's hitting in the 220s in Triple-A, so maybe he doesn't belong here. But...I have to imagine he'll be invited to big-league camp, so he could be a wildcard. His defense, apparently, is top-notch, which might be enough to make him a 4th or 5th OF, especially if Brady gets traded.

  • Kevin Mench: I've resigned myself to seeing him wearing the ball and glove next year, though I have to imagine Doug will listen to offers. Since this year has been underwhelming for him, he probably won't make too much, but due to arbitration rules, it'll still have to be in the $2.5 million range. In an ideal world, Jenkins will be gone, and Mench and Gross will platoon in left. Do I trust Ned to execute that properly? Right.

  • Laynce Nix: I probably wouldn't have put him on this list if he didn't get called up the other day. Like Krynzel, he's a wildcard--a good spring and a Brady Clark trade could get him on the Opening Day roster. However, I just don't see him contributing. Apparently the defense is good, but he's almost as K-tastic as Jenkins. We'll wait and see on this guy.
In other words, I think the Opening Day OF ought to be Corey in right, Gross/Mench platoon in left, and Clark/Gwynn in center. Or we could trade for Andruw Jones.

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Although I still really don't have a feel for the kind of hitter Gross is.  Power guy?  Average guy?  I don't think he has much speed.  I think you're right, though --- I think he's going to be your 4th OF, certainly a huge upgrade over Macgruder (and an indication of really how far we've come).

Based on who I think will be around next year, I'd be pleased with a Jinxie/Giant Head platoon, Gwynn, and Hart.  (Jinxie and the Giant Heads would be a great name for a band.)

The winter meetings should be interesting, though, as the offseason is Moustache's favorite time to make trades.  With our crowded outfield, M has to do something (I'd hope).  Here's how I'd handicap it.

CLARK: I'd be very surprised if he were in camp next year.  Good OBP, and he's cheap.  Plus, he looks a little like a weasel, which is something the ladies seem to go for.

MENCH: Although he has a lot of trade value, I think Moustache likes him too much (so out goes the platoon), plus there's the extra pressure of having to justify the trade.    (One bright spot about the trade: imagine Nelson Cruz in the hands of Butch Wynegar?  He'd strike out twice a game.)  I think we'll get offers, but he stays.

JINXIE: I don't know why he's pouting so much --- of all MLB RFs, his numbers have to be among the worst, statistically.  What, we should keep putting you out there to drag down the team because you were good once?  You're getting $1.5 million per homer --- suck it up.  Anyway, now that he's established that he can't hit lefties, he's pretty much a platoon player now, and no one's gonna pay for that.  He stays, plus we'll give him half a mil to not play for us in 2008.  Mark A., I don't mean to complain, but don't do that again.  He stays.

HART: It's all circumstantial, but I'm pretty sure Melvin likes the guy, but Yost doesn't.  Thus, Moustache won't trade him, but Yost only grudgingly plays him.  He'll be on the team next year, but he won't be a starter, not with Mench and Jinxie both starting.  (There's no way Ballgame will bench either of his salty veterans, even when they deserve it.)  Misuse of talent.  If this pans out, I kind of hope he DOES get traded, if only so he can play everyday somewhere.

NIX AND GWYNN: I think Nix is up now because again, they need to justify the trade (and, to be fair, he was hitting better than Gwynn in AAA).  My guess is, he and Gwynn battle it out in spring training for the starting CF spot, with the loser going back to AAA.  I think Gwynn has more upside (and more trade value), so I wouldn't be totally surprised to see him traded, though I'd be disappointed.  It's hard to say, though, because we haven't seen him.

KRYNZEL: will either be traded for a non-prospect or just play out his career as a minor-leaguer.  It's hard to envision him having any impact at this point.  Maybe we can trade him for JDLR.

GROSS: Like I said above, limited trade value because we have no idea what we have.  I don't know if he'll be an everyday player, but he's cheap and I doubt there's any interest in him.

HALL: Agree with Jeff --- he needs a home.  If we had options at short, I'd like to see him play the rest of the year at third to see how he'd do.  He can still be our main 3B, and move him around when we need a Salty Sirillo to play.  But he's our best offensive player, hands down --- for him to not get 600 ABs is another misuse of talent.

That gives us...Clark and Krynzel traded, with one of Gwynn/Nix starting in center.  Jinxie in right, in his last season as a Brewer.  Mench in left, auditioning for a long-term contract --- if he does poorly, he might be traded at the deadline.  Hart and Gross on the bench.  Hall is catching.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 21, 2006 8:15 AM CDT reply actions  

platoon
Anyway, now that he's established that he can't hit lefties, he's pretty much a platoon player now, and no one's gonna pay for that.

That should be true, but there are quite a few complete morons running these billion dollar businesses (see cubs, esp. jacque jones).

I don't think it's as difficult to move these players as one might think.

good notes.
a couple of things, i don't think the brewers can afford to run jenkins out there next year, an i think hart is handed RF.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 21, 2006 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

For the Brewers' sake...
...I hope you're right.  Hmmm...maybe we can trade Jenkins for JDLR....
"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 21, 2006 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

My ideal outfield
I agree with Jacob.  Nedly wouldn't be playing Hart right now if he didn't think starting him there next season was a viable option.  Hart will be in RF.

Here's what I want to happen:

Since Clark and Gross appear to be the same people aside from the obvious weasel traits, trade Clark for some pitching.

Hart in RF - Jinx/Big Dome in LF - Gross in CF

Gwynn will get a lot of playing time spelling Hart and Gross.

Krynzel and Nix in the minors or traded.

by antbogey on Aug 21, 2006 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

Pardon my ignorance but...
What makes JJ untouchable at short?  Why is Hall being our starter next season out of the question?  I think Billy seems to have more upside.

by antbogey on Aug 21, 2006 9:10 AM CDT reply actions  

Because
we have Robin Yount on our team, and people like to think JJ Injury is the next Robin Yount.
"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 21, 2006 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

Which is funny
Because clearly Bill Hall is the next Robin Yount--I haven't seen JJ play CF.

by battlekow on Aug 21, 2006 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

JJ
It's a good question, but I don't know how much it's going to be discussed within the brain trust. Hall isn't playing that much better than he was last year--he's just gotten more PT so his counting stats look more impressive. And this year, of course, JJ was handed the job. Everybody loves a supersub, which sucks for the supersub.

I do think, though, that if everybody's healthy, JJ at short, Koskie at third, and Hall in center might be better, offensively and especially defensively, than any other option. Hall could still be supersub, with Gwynn getting two or three starts a week in center.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 21, 2006 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure what you mean
Hall in center is the best defensive option?  It might be the best option overall (doubtful but possible) but I really doubt he's even an average CF at this point.  He has no experience.

Given Koskie's stellar defensive play and more than adequate bat this year, I'm more than happy to have him and Hall platoon at 3B again next year will Hall spot-starting elsewhere.  After next year, hand the job to Hall unless Hardy doesn't work out, in which case Hall becomes even more valuable as the SS.

As for CF, neither Hall nor Gross nor Hart nor Krynzel are realistic solutions, for various reasons.  I'm very much in favor of trying to trade Clark in the offseason and then opening a competition between Gwynn and Nix.  If their defense is as good as reported, they don't have to hit all that much to be valuable.  I guess I'm growing more optimistic on Nix as I keep hearing about his prior performance-affecting shoulder injuries and awesome defense.  If only one of them was right-handed...

That said, running Clark out there for another year wouldn't be disastrous, and neither Gwynn nor Nix is likely to be appreciable better overall than him.

by battlekow on Aug 21, 2006 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

(At least catching
seems to be settled....)

I vote for Hall to stay at short and let JJ beat him out of the job in March - if he can. That said, Hall can play seven positions for us.  It's those "high twitch" muscles, ya know. I wouldn't doubt he's got a pretty decent fastball, as well. The Majors haven't had a guy play all nine positions in a season recently. Hall might be the next one.)

by heybatterbatter on Aug 21, 2006 4:34 PM CDT reply actions  

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