Ohka versus Davis (versus nothing)

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 3, 2006 9:56 AM CDT in Milwaukee Brewers News

Last night's game reminded us that Tomo Ohka is not a savior; look back through old threads at this or any other Brewers site and you see plenty of frustration with our #4 starter. That issue is going to come up again this offseason when Doug Melvin decides whether to re-sign Ohka, and for how much.

As we're discussing here, there are plenty of candidates for next year's rotation: Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, Dana Eveland, Zach Jackson, and Carlos Villanueva, to begin with. Dennis Sarfate will probably also compete for a spot. There should also be mid-season candidates at Triple-A (just as there [gulp] were this year) in Tim Dillard, Steve Hammond, and Yovani Gallardo. However, after this year's disaster, in which Ned couldn't find a suitable replacement starter when Sheets and Ohka went down, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Melvin tries to sign a veteran starter to go along with Sheets, Cappy, and Bush.

Of course, there will be a few other pitchers on the market this offseason aside from Ohka and Doug Davis (like, ahem, Barry Zito), but let's stick to our two potential returnees. If you had asked around before the season, people in baseball would've told you to expect Davis to sign a pretty big deal before the '07 season, maybe $24m/3 years. He won't do that after his up-and-down performance this year; he might end up getting something closer to Cory Lidle money ($6.3m/2).

Ohka, on the other hand, will probably be more expensive. He is probably a better bet going forward, as well. He's also been inconsistent, but his overall numbers should look stronger to potential suitors. He may end up getting something like $20m/3 years, if only because there are never a whole lot of free-agent pitching options.

So, what do you think? Sign Ohka? Sign Davis for cheaper and give him a chance to bounce back? Sign no one and hope we get two starters out of Villanueva/Eveland/Jackson/Sarfate?

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Excuse me

But it seems you forget the great AAAA pitcher, Ben Hendrickson, who will undoubtedly be given an opportunity by Yost (or Larry Bowa!!) in spring training, will probably pitch amazing and then give up forty eight runs in the first two innings of his first start.

by thekranz on Aug 3, 2006 8:16 AM CDT reply actions

That's ridiculous

He'll be pulled after run #20. Then we'll bring in Helling, and Ned will feel compelled to start the season with a 15-man bullpen.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions

sarfate

is being converted to the bullpen, he might be a closer one day.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 3, 2006 8:27 AM CDT reply actions

Did you read that somewhere?

His game log has him starting until his last outing, which might be because of the power-out/rain-outs. Either way, I'm not counting on much from him...his walk rates are staggeringly high.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 3, 2006 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions

Sounds like a Brewers closer to me

He'd fit right in behind Coco and Turnblownsave. Time to start working on a nickname.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions

Sarfate

McCalvy floatetd it in his latest mailbag. Not sure if it was his own idea or if he heard it somewhere. He mentioned not relief, but closer.

by thekranz on Aug 3, 2006 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions

I wonder

After a horrendous start, Davis has been pitching better, though perhaps not at last year's clip. With a relatively strong second half, I bet someone will give him $5 mil/season.

I think Melvin will overspend to keep one or both, in an attempt to show an effort to "win now" with "salty, seasoned, veterans." I don't know if these two are the way to go, but I like the idea of veteran pitchers than our veteran hitters, if only because I have less faith in our young pitchers than our young hitters.

Of the two, I think Ohka is pitching better than he is, and will likely reveal that over the final few months. I'd like him a whole lot better as a #5 pitcher/swing man, assuming we had enough talent above him to make him a #5. Well, talent who wasn;t hurt all the time, I mean.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 8:33 AM CDT reply actions

On second thought...

Going into this year, I'd've thought the plan would be to not overpay for pitching, either: if you're not going to get your money's worth out of Ohka or Davis, then don't overpay for them.

(As an aside, I wonder what they would have been worth right before the trading deadline: one you get over the fact that we're not going win the wild card, decent starting pitching at the deadline could have brought in a mint.)

After this year, though, when Mike Maddux has been cut down from immortal to merely mortal, I'm not so sure. My guess: Ohka goes, Zachson is called up, we overpay for Davis. I don't think Moustache could stomach letting two veteran pitchers going, for fear we might be accused of not trying to win in 2007.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 9:11 AM CDT reply actions

The other option

which I forgot to mention in my post...is a one-year deal for Greg Maddux. Maddux is tough to judge at this point...but I'd say he's at least equal to Davis, maybe a little better.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 3, 2006 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions

I'd assume better

I wonder: how much would Maddux be? I don't think you can help but pay for the name. It would be cool to have him though. Were the Maddux brothers ever on the same team?

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions

Davis & Ohka

Davis at $3m per would be a bargain and Ohka and $7-8 m per would be excessively expensive. I think Davis could fetch more -- he's been healthy and has better Ks/BBs numbers. I see him costing us in the $4-5 m per range. I see Ohka costing about the same, but would prefer if we kept Davis.

As for Hendrickson, I have not gviven up completey. Throw in a few Melvin waiver finds (and maybe a free agent?) and we will have, if nothing else, good competition for the starting slots. That beats heading to Arizona with Scott Karl penciled in for a spot.

Whatever happened to Ramser Correa???!

by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Aug 3, 2006 9:37 AM CDT reply actions

Choose Boof!

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions

To sign both Davis and Ohka...

would be foolhardy. Yeah, yeah, TINSTAAPP, I know, but none of our prospects have been injured, they've just sucked remarkably when given a shot, for the most part after rather pronounced success at AAA. At some point, you have to stop calling it bad luck and nerves and start pointing fingers at the coaching staff. To have two pitchers alternating between <2 ERAs in AAA and >8 ERAs in the Majors is insane.

I vote for signing one of the vets and handing the 5th starter job to whichever young 'un pitches the best in spring training and is not named Hendrickson. Given the choice between either Ohka or Davis, I'd much prefer Davis, the one without the "slight" rotator cuff tear and better stuff.

by battlekow on Aug 3, 2006 10:29 AM CDT reply actions

TINSTAAPP?

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions

tinstaapp

there is no such thing as a pitching prospect

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 3, 2006 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions

why?

money? why would it be foolhardy to sign davis & ohka? if '07 is going to be a playoff year, don't you want all the established pitchers you can get your hands on?

given tinstaapp?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 3, 2006 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions

Established, sure

But not established as that good. I just think there has to be something better to spend $8M on than Tomo Ohka.

by battlekow on Aug 3, 2006 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions

for sure

8 million yeah, but how about 5?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 3, 2006 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions

Why

can't we sign Zito? I bet that would put some asses in the seats to pay off the hefty salary he'd require.

by antbogey on Aug 3, 2006 10:41 AM CDT reply actions

That's true

He'll be more expensive than Davis or Ohka, but probably not more expensie than Davis AND Ohka, not to mention more reliable.

I'd be surprised if we were the highest bidder for him, but he might actually be worth it.

Actually, that's the thing with free agents: none of the big ones are ever worth their contracts.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm willing to bet

it would take market value plus 15-25% to get Zito to sign with Milwaukee. Read the book Aces, those folks think of Milwaukee as a piss bucket town with piss bucket fans.

by thekranz on Aug 3, 2006 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions

I'd rather have Davis

... he appears more durable and will probably be cheaper after this down year. There's no reason to think he can't come back to his previous 2.5 yrs with the Crew.

Tomo Ohka p
1 year/$4.53M (2006), plus $0.1M in incentives

* re-signed 2/06, avoided arbitration ($5.2M-$4.25M)
* may earn $0.1M in incentives based on innings pitched
o $25,000 each for 185 & 195 IP
o $50,000 for 200 IP
* 1 year/$2.75M (2005), avoided arbitration 1/05
* 1 year/$2.3375M (2004), avoided arbitration 1/04
* 1 year/$0.34M (2003) 3/03
* 1 year/$0.24M (2002) 3/02
* 1 year/$0.225M (2001)
* ML service: 5.070

Doug Davis p
2 year/$4.75M (2005-06), plus $0.4M in incentives

* 05:$2.05M, 06:$2.7M
* 2005 salary increases by $0.3M with 34 GS in 2004
* 2006 salary increases by $0.5M with 33 GS in 2005
* signed extension 7/04
* 1 year/$0.45M (2004) (minor-league contract)
* 1 year/$0.4275M (2003) 2/03
* 1 year/$0.31M (2002) 2/02
* ML service: 4.138

From the amazingly up-to-date Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Would the team be able to snag draft picks from either of these two leaving? I doubt it, but wondering if anyone in the audience knows.

Nate

by nmc on Aug 3, 2006 10:48 AM CDT reply actions

Compensation

A Type A, B or C Player shall be a Player who became a free agent and ranks as a Type A, B or C Player under the statistical system of ranking Players set forth by the Elias Sports Bureau using statistics based on a two-year average for each respective position group.

Type A Players: Ranks in the upper 30% of his respective position group
Type B Players: Ranks in the upper 50%, but not in the upper 30%, of his respective position group
Type C Players: Ranks in the upper 60%, but not in the upper 50%, of his respective position group

They could both be Type A's.

by battlekow on Aug 3, 2006 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions

Whoops

That's from here.

by battlekow on Aug 3, 2006 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions

I really doubt both would be Type A's

probably depends what they do from here out. If they both finish with sub-4.30 ERAs, then yeah. If Davis keeps on with what he's doing, then...type B for him.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 3, 2006 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions

Given Davis' strong year last year

I don't think he'd have to lower his current ERA that much (3/4 of a run) to get into the top 30% with the two years averaged. Nevertheless, I agree that he won't be a type A if he just maintains this level of performance for the rest of the year.

It would be nice if we knew what, exactly, Elias was rating them on. Matt Morris, for instance, was a type A last year.

by battlekow on Aug 3, 2006 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions

good point

somehow i missed the two-year average thing.

it would indeed be great if they made the ranking method public.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 3, 2006 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions

wow

good web site. i'd been looking for a place like that.

by Griswald on Aug 3, 2006 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions

pitching

Ohka won't get as much as he would have got had he been injury free. but he'll command more than the brewers wanna give him. Pitching is a hard thing to predict.

give up on the hendrickson thing. He's been given more than one opportunity and has choked on all of them. I think Dana Eveland may be the next Ben Hendrickson. After his free fall this season.

As far as free agents i don't see the brewers using smart money to sign any. sure you can go out and dump a bunch on mark mulder or Barry Zito but what do you really get in return. I dont' think its worth it. Usually on pitchers your paying for what they have done, not what they're going to do moving forward. I think they need to get a right fielder and settle on a centerfielder. Then stock up on pitchers. I"m sure Melvin will rescue another one.

Tim Indiana brewers fan bring back the chalet. give miller park some sort of a historical brewery feel to it. it's a sleeper right now!!!!!!!!!!!!

by storminTAZZ on Aug 3, 2006 2:51 PM CDT reply actions

The have a right fielder

Hart.

If they go out and sign more freaking outfielder, I swear, I'll become a Roayls fan.

by thekranz on Aug 3, 2006 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions

pitching

here is what they think $$$ will be with the 2007 free agent pitchers.

Zito 5/75 million
Schmidt 4/45
Mussina 3/34
Mulder 3/30
Marquis 4/28
Wood 1/4
Eaton 2/11
Lilly 2/12

bargains:
Ohka, Meche, WEaver, Wolf

Big contracts who will have to take less:
Pettitte, park, radke

Possible minor league deals:

Mark Redman (who would or could be a good pick up given his arm and possbility of playing with a contender light a fire under him)
Tony Armas Jr (see above)

Tim Indiana brewers fan bring back the chalet. give miller park some sort of a historical brewery feel to it. it's a sleeper right now!!!!!!!!!!!!

by storminTAZZ on Aug 3, 2006 3:02 PM CDT reply actions

Redman

It'd be worth getting Redman just so we won't have to face him. He seems to kill us every time.

Weaver could be interesting, too. I think Armas will get a pretty lucrative deal (for him, that is).

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions

The best deal

Personally, I would love to see the Brewers sign Mulder, especially if they can get him for 30/3.

He was pitching well to start off the season, and I haven't really heard when the injury started bothering him, but if he can show he is healthy, I would gladly give him 10 a year for a short 3 years.

by thekranz on Aug 3, 2006 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Interesting

I knew Mulder was having a bad year, but I hadn't really looked into it.

According to Hardball Times, his xFIP is in line with his '04 & '05 numbers, so he may be in for a rebound. Explanation of xFIP:

This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA.

by battlekow on Aug 3, 2006 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions

I dunno

I think his best days are already behind him --- sad to say for someone under 30. His stats are here.

From 2001-2003, he's had a WHIP under 1.2. Since then, it's been closer to 1.4, including a horrible 1.55 this year, when opponents are hitting .310. Those numbers will come down, I'd assume, but not enough for $10 million a season.

I think I'd rather take my chances with Jeff Weaver. This year hasn't been kinder than to Mulder, but before this one, he's had only one bad year, and that was with the Yankees (so he probably tanked on purpose to kill the Evil Empire). With Maddux's help, I think he'd be a reasonable bet to put up numbers comparable to Mulder's without the huge price tag.

Of course, there's de la Rosa...never mind.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 3, 2006 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Interesting

Mulder would seem like a guy who the Brewers should NOT take a chance on--he's put up his good & bad career numbers in front of good defenses (Oakland and StL), while the Brewers wouldn't match that defensive performance behind him.

The same caveat would apply to Zito--Oakland has a freakishly good defense this year and last, and the pitchers (obviously) really benefit from that. Zito's a good pitcher, don't get me wrong, but if he were pitching in Miller Park in front of Fielder and Weeks and Jenkins and Lee/Mench, he wouldn't be about to rake in $75 mil.

I should point out I don't really think the Crew should shell out to sign him (for just that reason, in addition to the mistake of having $25mil, or more than 40% of payroll tied up in two pitchers) ...I just mentioned him in the post because I couldn't think of any other big names who'd be on the market.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 3, 2006 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Even if...

he's pitching not as great as he once was, I don't see a lot of places the Brewes will need to spend massive dollars on in the coming years, so taking a chance on a guy who could make the rotation impressive if he even is able to come close to his best years is worth the shot.

A rotation with Sheets, Cappy, Mulder, Davis, X looks pretty damn good from where I sit.

Also, the Brewers won't really have to worry about signing the kids until the Mulder contract is basically gone, so if a small market team is going to go out on a limb, seems like next year would be the year to do it, and even after this year Mulder is a more stable limb than Weaver.

by thekranz on Aug 3, 2006 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Radke

Will retire after the season.

Good night, funny man.

Nate

by nmc on Aug 3, 2006 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions

we'll see...

seems like there are a lot of players in baseball every year who were going to retire after last season. Radke may well, but that doesn't mean his agent won't make phone calls :).

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 3, 2006 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions

let's get kerry wood

so we can have a friend for sheets when they're both on the 60-day next year.

by Griswald on Aug 3, 2006 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions

dude

not funny man, not funny at all.

by thekranz on Aug 3, 2006 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions

I disagree. I think it is very, very funny.

I'd like to apologize for my cynicism in advance.

by Stoa on Aug 3, 2006 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Capuano?

What do you guys think Capuano will bring in next season? He is an All-Star, but, he really hasn't been the same pitcher since the break.

by familyguy on Aug 3, 2006 3:28 PM CDT reply actions

first year of arby...

Dontrelle is making $4m+ this year, which was a record for a first-year arby pitcher. Cappy is no Dontrelle, but he's pretty darn good...maybe $3m? I wouldn't be surprised to see Melvin try to lock him down long-term, at least 2 or 3 years. Whether Cappy & agent will go for that...that's another story.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 3, 2006 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Let's get a SP from the AL

...American League guys are the best value going for us, particularly if they're already playing in hitters' parks. Think Chris Young or Bronson Arroyo. I used this strategy to much advantage in my NL fantasy league.

I live in Chicago and every other day up to the 31st there was a story about how the White Sox wanted to trade Freddy Garcia or Vazquez. I personally would love to see Garcia in a Cerveceros uniform and he wouldn't even have to sell his home in the North Shore (about 90 minutes from Miller Park). From the list previously posted, perhaps Ted Lilly would fit. Another crazy idea might be Paul Byrd.

Whatever happened to Ramser Correa???!

by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Aug 3, 2006 5:42 PM CDT reply actions

All this talk about Mulder, Zito, etc.

Remember we all got hard-ons when we signed Ben McDonald, and Hideo Nomo and let's not forget the popular Franklin Stubbs

FINALLY we can get past that

by kjbsam on Aug 3, 2006 5:56 PM CDT reply actions

Ted Lily

I see lily as a really good fit - solid, solid pitcher, veteran, and a 2 year deal will be expiring juuuuust as mr prince fielder is going to arbitration (that wont be fun)

Carlos Lee (MIL) is traded to LAA for McPherson, Morales, Saunders, Kendrick, Wood, Aybar, Mathis, Je. Weaver, and Napoli...

by ufoboy90 on Aug 3, 2006 8:47 PM CDT reply actions

Plus

Lilly is a Blue Jay, lets keep the pipeline flowing.

by thekranz on Aug 4, 2006 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Hmmm...

Graffanino for Lilly? Let's send them David Bell, and annoy them with useless more third-base veterans.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 4, 2006 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions

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