What is Chris Capuano Worth?

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 9, 2006 10:31 AM CDT in Milwaukee Brewers News

Yesterday, we (well, mostly I) looked at what might have changed for Chris Capuano since the All-Star Break. Assuming that he gets back on track and posts something like last year's 3.99 ERA, he'll be one of the more expensive first-year-of-arbitration signings this offseason.

That is, if Melvin & Co. don't try to do something else. There have been a flurry of long-term deals awarded to young, pre-arbitration players in the last few days: $23.25 million to Jose Reyes, $55 million to David Wright, and most pertinently, $14 million to Cliff Lee. Lee, a lefty starter with the Indians, isn't nearly the pitcher Capuano has been this year, but he might be the best comp we have.

Lee and Capuano were born 11 days apart in 1978, and each pitched in nine games in 2003. (Lee got into a couple the year before, as well.) Lee was a regular starter in 2004, while Capuano was hurt, throwing about 90 more innings than Cappy did that year. Then, last year, each of them won 18 games.

This year, Capuano's ERA is almost a full run better than Lee's, but that doesn't take context into account: Lee is pitching regularly against the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox, while Capuano gets a steady diet of the NL Central. Overall, they're pretty darn close.

Assuming for a moment that Capuano and his agent would be amenable to such a deal, let's see what it might take:

Lee's deal, which took form during the All-Star break last month, includes a $1 million signing bonus and increases his salary this year from $406,200 to $750,000. He gets $2.75 million next year, $3.75 million in 2008 and $5.75 million in 2009. Cleveland has an $8 million option for 2010.

The benefits of deals like this can be enormous to both sides: the player gets security for life, and the team gets cost-certainty, as well as some (maybe even a lot of) savings if the player lives up to their potential. In each of the deals Cleveland has put together over the last year (including contracts for Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta), there's always a team option year at the end--and I would hope Doug Melvin would include one of those on Capuano's contract, as well.

What do you think? Do you want to see Capuano pitching for the Crew through the end of the decade? Is $14 million too much for three years? Do you think it'd take more to sign him?

e-mail this page :: del.icio.us :: digg this

Tweet Comment 19 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

El Cap-allo

Unless his numbers really go downhill over the final two months, I think $4+ million might be a little low. Those are Ohka numbers, not the All-Star who was leading the team with Ben out. I think $17 million over three years might do it, though. Either way, he's worth taking a chance on.

(There's a rumor that Sheets might miss all of 2007 with a hangnail. Stay tuned.)

Is anyone else starting to feel a dampening of enthusiasm for our beloved Brewers? I can't tell if it's just me. I don't know if it's the promise of fall and a new football season, or if it was that misbegotten trade and the certainty that we're just playing out the string.

I dunno. I still watch and attend the games now, but it's with a sense of why-do-I-bother. I think it's the letdown after being invested so much in the first half, and this is what we get: a team that would be lucky to finish at .500, and the uncertainty that the guys running the team (Moustache and Neddy Ballgame) know what they're doing. It's very saddening. NOT pipa-tastic, at all.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 9, 2006 7:54 AM CDT reply actions

yost.

Is anyone else starting to feel a dampening of enthusiasm for our beloved Brewers?

Yes! Mench, Bell, Graffy, Jenkins, Clark playing everyday? The Brewers have become the Royals. I quit on the season when they "traded" JDLR. Also, I cannot watch the TV anymore. Daron & Bill have gone insane.

anyone catch this exchange last night?

DARON: Frankie Cordero, there's a guy with a lot of confidence, no doubt about that.

BILL: Yeah, there is no doubting his confidence.

I almost puked.

Also, i figured out the hitting the other way thing. Bad hitters have to hit the other way because they are not good enough to start the bat sooner, and hit the ball harder. They have to wait and "fight" to slap the ball the other way. So why do Ned, Butch, Bill and Daron love hitting to the opposite field so much? Because it represents the underdog, the crappy hitter, succeeding. See, Ned, Butch, Bill and Daron were all crappy hitters, they had to "fight" off the pitch to survive. In order to elevate themselves to something worthy they place a premium on going the other way. They place a premium on crappy hitting. They demonize pulling the ball, because they couldn't do it. Good hitters hit the ball hard, it doesn't matter which way it goes.

There is no reason to watch, they are playing out a lost season with salty veteran battling crappy players who are just barely good enough to have been able to hang around. real exciting. I'd watch them lose to the cubs if it were the guys of tomorrow playing and growing, but it's not.

The whole concept of rewarding old crappy players with playing time just because they are old is offensive to me. I'm offended by the Brewers. It's like getting sick of your favorite beer.

sigh.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 9, 2006 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions

You have...

... summarized the current purgatory I feel myself in.

Nate - I'm so rad!

by nmc on Aug 9, 2006 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions

Very nice

What a nice analysis there. I don't know if I totally buy it, but it's an awesome theory. Hitting the other way is definitely a scrappy thing to do.

And of course, you can't spell "scrappy" without "crappy."

Still, I guess a Brewers game provides good background noise while you do something interesting, like a good game of Boggle, or a crossword puzzle. Let's see...a four-letter word for a Chinese lute...hmmmm...

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 9, 2006 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions

cappy

Yeah, I think it's going to take more than $4-5 million to keep Cappy around. Nobody expected him to pitch as well as he did in the first half, but he was one of the top five or so starters in the NL.

And also, yeah, roguejim, I lost the enthusiasm a couple of weeks ago, and even moreso after the Caballo trade. They've become a very frustrating team to watch, compounded by the fact that I've lost some faith in Melvin recently. And Ned is driving me crazy. They just don't seem like a smart ballclub right now and it's incredibly frustrating.

Also, long-time reader, first time poster. I really enjoy the site.

by gsparks on Aug 9, 2006 8:57 AM CDT reply actions

Welcome aboard

Wish we had happier news to write about.

Actually, I think that's about it. There are no good storylines to look for, nothing on the team to get excited about.

Well, not nothing. This is what I got:

1B: Prince, having a Rookie of the Year season. I hope he gets it. ENTHUSED.
2B: Tony Graffanino does not exactly put fans in the stands. (Trivia question: form what movie am I lifting that line? Answer below.) Rickie Weeks's second season again ends on the DL. (Amazingly, he had exactly one fewer at-bat than last year.) YAWN.
3B: David Bell? The return of Corey Koskie is something to look forward to, but more out of a mix of curiosity/pity than anything else. YAWN.
SS: Are we playing Hall at short? Our most exciting player. ENTHUSED.
C: The tag team of Miller and Rivera isn't an exciting one, but I'm pulling for Rivera to make the club next year, and it's easy to root for Miller. NEUTRAL.
LF: Kevin Mench. On the one hand, lackluster production, plus he's blocking players of interest in Hart/Gross. On the other hand, giant head. MILD INTEREST, BUT A YAWN.
CF: Brady Clark. He's pulled a Jenkins, hitting the ball now that we're playing out the string. Plus, he's also blocking more interesting outfielders. YAWN.
RF: Geoff Jenkins. How can someone so likable be so hated? Plus, he's blocking more interesting players. YAWN.
SP: Have you noticed how bad our starting pitching has been? Bush is the only one who's on a hot streak, and that streak consists of ONE GAME. We've won the last three times DD has pitched, but over that span, he's given up 12 runs in 16 2/3 innings. Those are softball numbers. Plus, Kerry Sheets is hurt again. (You know what we could use? Pitching prospects.) YAWN.
RP: Our bullpen has stabilized somewhat, which is nice, and it's fun saying CoCo. Not that one normally gets excited about a bullpen, but this team takes what it can get. ENTHUSED

So where does that leave us? There are exactly three reason to be excited about the Brewers right now: Prince Fielder, Bill Hall, and our bullpen. (And our bench, which I didn't list above because it was too painful.) The highlight of last night's game was Corey Hart flying out with the bases loaded. Hot times in Milwaukee.

Anyway, I think that's why I'm a mite less than enthusiastic about the Brewers. Getting Hart, Gwynn, and Gross some playing time would be something to look forward to, though. I mean, if you were able to get beyond the injuries, this could be your lineup:

Gwynn
Hardy
Weeks
Fielder
Hall
Hart
Gross
Rivera

You can mess around with the order, but that would be a lineup to look forward too.

Anyway, there you go. Sorry about the thread hijack, Jeff.

TRIVIA ANSWER: The Replacements, of course. Must-see.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 9, 2006 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions

Excitement abounds!

There's always the race for the Aaron Award.

The what?

Exactly.

by battlekow on Aug 9, 2006 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions

roguejim for

manager, hired by new GM Sackman. Me likee. Let's storm the gates! (In re: Cappy - So how many big signings have worked out for the Brewers in the last five years? I say no more than $14M to CC for the life of the the deal, and thanks for getting this thread started, Jeff.)

by heybatterbatter on Aug 9, 2006 12:17 PM CDT reply actions

Cappy is a safer bet

I would not feel nearly as scared about signing Cappy to a longer deal due to the fact that he is a softer throwing "thinking man's" pitcher in the mold of Greg Maddux and I think these types of pitchers tend to have longer careers with less injuries.
I have officially moved in to the "get excited about next year" camp. I think the rest of this year should be exclusively geared toward trading away Jenkins, Mench, and Clark to free up any salary we can and getting playing time for the young guys. I also think we should use the last two months to see if there is any hope for Eveland, Hendrickson, Fernandez, the other Cappy and other pitchers as starters in the Majors. I think we should keep at least one of our new infielders seeing as I doubt Cirillo is coming back and Koskie is questionable.

by familyguy on Aug 9, 2006 1:39 PM CDT reply actions

Interesting

I suppose you're right, Koskie isn't a lock. I did just see a report that he's making progress, though probably not enough to come back for any length of time this year.

I would like to think that Koskie/Weeks/Hardy/Hall will get the job done in 07, but there does need to be a contingency plan in place.

And, even if Koskie is healthy, maybe it's time (maybe???) to give Billy the starting job and find Corey a new home.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 9, 2006 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions

D&B

Daron and Bill said last night that he's only a few days away. I think they expect him to play on the weekend.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 9, 2006 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions

I think

I think it was Koskie. Then again, I vaguely recall something about someone playing the final weekend. Do you guys remember anything like that?

I remember liking the Koskie trade when it went down, reverting Hall to the supersub. I liked it mostly because we were getting a lot of talent for not much money. However, I hate the idea of Hall playing the supersub role to David Bell.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 9, 2006 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions

I was thinking

Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hall as the starting infield with Bell or Graf (one or the other, probably Graf as he plays every infield position)and Koskie as reserves for injury depth, pinch-hit, "just in-case someone is slumping" kind of thing and having that salty veteran experience around that Yost likes.

by familyguy on Aug 9, 2006 2:08 PM CDT reply actions

danger, Will Robinson!

Do not give Ned salty veterans! Ned will play salty veterans, and Ned will forget that he has young players!

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 9, 2006 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions

I was looking up ...

... what the opposite of salt was to write something clever, but no one has figured that out yet.

Is is it safe to say that Ned is our own little Dusty Baker? Salty veterans > promising youngsters

Nate - I'm so rad!

by nmc on Aug 9, 2006 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm afraid...

Ned definitely shows those tendencies. Then again, Prince has played every day this year, so that's to everyone's credit.

Eventually, I'm going to stop laughing when I see that sig, but for now, it cracks me up every time.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 9, 2006 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Tofu

Of all the answers, I like that one the best.

"We need players who are, you know, more tofu-ey."

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 9, 2006 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions

Why...

...it almost sounds like you think Neddy Ballgame should be managing at the AAA level.

Unless you'd think he'd pressure Moustache to trade for veterans who are injured frequently, so he could play them while on rehab.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 9, 2006 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions

not even necessary

Graham Koonce, Milko Jaramillo, Allan Simpson, Winky, Brent Abernathy, Zach Sorensen, Mark Johnson, Jermaine Clark, Jared Fernandez...we got vets, baby!

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 9, 2006 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	22	15	.594	0	Won 2
Cincinnati Red Reporter	19	17	.527	2.5	Won 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	17	20	.459	5	Lost 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	16	21	.432	6	Lost 1
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	16	21	.432	6	Won 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	22	.405	7	Lost 2