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It's that time of year again

Now that Suppan has signed, the Brewers roster is pretty much set.  There's plenty of stuff that can still happen, and of course the starting lineup is far from set, given that we have about eleven outfielders for five roster spots.  But for the most part, the changes are done, and we can start looking toward 2007.

Which means that the optimism shall now be unleashed.  Case in point: Adam McCalvy's article today on MLB.com:

"We're really close right now," ever-optimistic manager Ned Yost said at the Winter Meetings. "We need health. We need J.J. [Hardy] to stay healthy, we need Rickie [Weeks] to stay healthy and we need Benny [Sheets] to stay healthy. The pieces are starting to add up to a pretty nice sum."

To be fair, Adam is hardly proclaiming the Brewers the champions of the NL Central.  Ned is being kind of careful too; mostly covering his own you-know-what.  

Of course, the health is very important: this team isn't going to contend unless we get far luckier with injuries.  We might be able to withstand one of the losses we had last year, but certainly not four.  On the other hand, the 2007 squad is much better prepared to deal with one or two (or even four) such losses than last year's team.

Last year at this time, I was excited about the Brewers depth: we had Billy Hall entering the season as supersub, and Corey Hart out of the starting lineup.  The rotation looked at least seven or eight deep and there were plenty of bullpen options, though none of them were spectacular.

As you all know, way too much went wrong.  But look at what's happened: it's easy enough to joke about having double the number of outfielders we need, but how about that flexibility?  While Doug Melvin really wants a centerfielder, we have Hall, Brady Clark, Tony Gwynn, Laynce Nix, as well as Hart and Gabe Gross.  We're four deep at every infield position: if Hall is starting elsewhere, he'll be number four on that list, but Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell can play any infield position.  First base is protected: Hart can fill in there; catcher is particularly deep, with Mike Rivera, Vinny Rottino, and perhaps JD Closser slated to start the year in Triple-A.

We're not as deep in pitching, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's where Melvin focuses for the remainder of the offseason.  The rotation has six somewhat proven MLB guys, with Zach Jackson and (sorry, gotta list him) Ben Hendrickson right behind them.  By mid-season, maybe Yovani Gallardo will be ready.  The bullpen, as usual, will be a mish-mash, but it'll only be unclear after the first three or four spots: a lot of teams will enter the season with more question marks than we have.  

Does this mean I'm on board with the optimists?  Well, not quite.  I can see this team winning 85-87 games.  (I said that last year, too.)  If the injury bug strikes again, we're better protected, but that just means we win 81 games instead of 75.  That doesn't guarantee any important games in September, but it will make me a little happier to be a Brewers fan.

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07 Team
I've posted several comments here about the possibilty of trading this outfielder or that one for a good reliever, but this team is starting to shape up nicely, especially if we get a stretch of good health. It still would be nice if we could move at least one outfielder, or perhaps two of the lesser ones, and get a couple more steady arms for the 'pen. I've posed the question here but did not see a reply. Does anyone know if Vargas has options left? In addition, the posts on this site saying that maybe Jenkins in the 7-hole aren't 1/2 bad. It is true that Jenks always goes on a tear after the Brewers are out of contention. Maybe without the pressure of being one of our horses, he can come out and regain the swing he had in years past.

by kgaul on Jan 2, 2007 7:33 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

the outfield
unless i'm reading it wrong, this doesn't seem to indicate he has an option the brewers could pick up, if i understand what you're asking.

as far as jenkins, i don't see a big problem with him batting 7th only against righties provided the platoon is with mench and not hart. however, if i'm not mistaken yost or melvin has said they don't want to platoon mench, which would lead me to believe that either jenkins will platoon with hart or just be a flat out bench player.

given those scenarios, i would like to see jenkins-mench platoon to start the year and simply see what happens.

by Griswald on Jan 2, 2007 10:55 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
Most obvious is a platoon scenario if the Brewers have to have both of them.  What's the worst that could happen?  Their feelings get hurt?  I could only justify Mench being full time based on his post league-switch production, but neither him nor Jenkins can hang their hat on their numbers.  Except against opposite throwing pitchers.

Jenkins will always swing and miss at pitches low and inside.  Always.

Nate - I'm so rad!

by nmc on Jan 3, 2007 8:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Options.
I think by options, kgaul means minor league options, not contract options, which means he is asking if we can "option" him to the minors without having to first place him on waivers. Once a player is called up and serves a certain amount of time in the majors, he can only be sent back down like 5 times.  Once he's logged a number of years of major league service, those options expire regardless of whether or not they've been used.  Like at this point, we can't just send Jenkins to the minors without his permission, unless he passes through waivers first.  This article might help a little.  Anyway, Vargas is a few years from free agency, so options of the other variety wouldn't matter.  He'll go to arbitration this year.

Unfortunately, I don't know for sure about his minor league options, but based on looking on the info here, I would say that he probably does have minor league options left; if you look at his game log, I can only see on place where an option might have been used, and that might have just been a rehab stint.  Regardless, I'm not sure why you're asking kgaul.  Do you want to stick him in the minors and open with Villanueva as the #5?  Or Jackson?  

by baumann on Jan 3, 2007 11:53 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I didn't want to reply to myself . . .
Okay, a player has three options, and options are good for the whole year, which means that he can be sent down to the minors as many times as the team wants in that given option year.  For the next season, they must start a new option.  Once a player has five years MLB service, the options expire altogether.  

Under this system (which might have changed under the new collective bargaining agreement, but probably didn't), Vargas definitely has at least one option, given that he's only split time between the majors and minors in two seasons, and one of them looks like a good old fashioned call-up, which does not count as an option -- unless he was on the 40-man roster during spring training and then optioned before the regular season began.  

This is why so many players are given minor league contracts with NRI's to spring training, because then the team doesn't use an option on a player simply because they wanted to see him play in February.  

by baumann on Jan 3, 2007 12:10 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

FWIW...
It's not quite true that options expire after 5 years of major-league service (and the article you linked above doesn't say that). Optioning a player after that point does require his consent, but you still don't need to pass him through waivers, as you would have to if he was out of options.

BTW, using up an option does not require that the player actually appeared on the major-league roster at any point during the season, so Vargas may have used up options in years other than 2003 and 2005 if his club had protected him on the 40-man roster for those other seasons.

by Zeyes on Jan 4, 2007 3:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Baumann & Griswald
Thanks for the info, guys. what I'd like to see is Carlos V. get the #5 and Vargas be our #6 injury guy if one of the top five goes down. CV, in my eyes, has done enough to warrant a look. If he stinks it up, we could always send him down and bring up Vargas. On the other hand, if Carlos picks up where he left off last year and continues to grow, he could be quite the buoy for the Brewers fans playoff hopes.

by kgaul on Jan 3, 2007 7:52 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Zeyes.
Good stuff.  It's just that what major leaguer is going to give you his consent to send him down.  It happens very rarely.  I guess I was too lazy to write that out.

The 40-man protection things was something I hadn't thought about -- we only see 25 at a time for most of the season, so it's easy to forget the 40-man roster.

by baumann on Jan 4, 2007 10:38 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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