PECOTA Projections Are Out

BP released their PECOTA projections (subscriber only) today. Over the next couple days, I'd like to compare some of the more notable/interesting ones with their ZiPS and CHONE counterparts, starting today with the pitchers. You can see how those projection systems stacked up against each other and few others last year here.

Ben Sheets:

Proj	ERA	RA	IP	H	BB	K	HR	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
PECOTA	3.36	3.66	177.7	161	30	170	22	8.2	1.5	8.6	1.1
ZiPS	2.88	3.14	172.0	152	24	174	19	8.0	1.3	9.1	1.0
CHONE	3.01	3.25	155.0	139	27	167	16	8.1	1.6	9.7	0.9

Pretty unbefreakingly awesome across the board, but you knew that already.

Chris Capuano:

Proj	ERA	RA	IP	H	BB	K	HR	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
PECOTA	4.43	4.77	185.7	193	54	144	27	9.4	2.6	7.0	1.3
ZiPS	4.11	4.50	206.0	207	59	154	28	9.0	2.6	6.7	1.2
CHONE	3.92	4.25	195.0	194	56	163	26	9.0	2.6	7.5	1.2

Dave Bush:

Proj	ERA	RA	IP	H	BB	K	HR	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
PECOTA	4.14	4.51	179.7	186	44	128	22	9.3	2.2	6.4	1.1
ZiPS	3.79	4.14	202.0	198	43	146	23	8.8	1.9	6.5	1.0
CHONE	3.68	4.02	197.0	194	42	156	23	8.9	1.9	7.1	1.1

Bush actually projects to be a bit better than Capuano, a result of less walks and a few less home runs allowed. That said, I think Cappy's walk rates are projected a bit high; he made outstanding strides with his control last year (1.9 BB/9 in '06 vs. 3.7 in '04-'05), and even when he was struggling, it was because of hits and home runs, not walks. They'll be a fantastic 2-3 punch behind Sheets next year.

Jeff Suppan:

Proj	ERA	RA	IP	H	BB	K	HR	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
PECOTA	4.96	5.38	147.7	166	54	86	20	10.1	3.3	5.2	1.2
ZiPS	4.37	4.78	177.0	191	59	95	23	9.7	3.0	4.8	1.2
CHONE	4.77	5.18	191.0	218	68	111	24	10.3	3.2	5.2	1.1

Oof (hat tip to Al). It's interesting how much worse Suppan's control is than starters #1-3, considering his distinct lack of stuff. I guess that's why we're paying his as a fourth starter. Oh wait.

Claudio Vargas:

Proj	ERA	RA	IP	H	BB	K	HR	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
PECOTA	4.86	5.22	128.3	135	44	97	20	9.5	3.1	6.8	1.4
ZiPS	5.03	5.49	154.0	159	53	122	26	9.3	3.1	7.1	1.5
CHONE	4.44	4.82	155.0	160	56	122	24	9.3	3.3	7.1	1.4

Carlos Villanueva:

Proj	ERA	RA	IP	H	BB	K	HR	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
PECOTA	4.62	4.97	148.0	145	50	113	25	8.8	3.0	6.9	1.5
ZiPS	4.59	5.04	157.0	159	54	115	25	9.1	3.1	6.6	1.4
CHONE	4.30	4.68	148.0	147	58	119	22	8.9	3.5	7.2	1.3

In addition to having the same initials, Carlos Villanueva and Claudio Vargas also have very similar stats. Though I don't entirely buy Carlos' projections, both pitchers are projected to have significantly better peripherals than Jeff Suppan. Of course, these are just projections, but it's still pretty disappointing. Also disappointing is the fact that, barring injury, neither has a prayer of unseating Suppan for the #4 spot in the rotation.

Zach Jackson:

Proj	ERA	RA	IP	H	BB	K	HR	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
ZiPS	5.15	5.66	159	177	62	86	21	10.0	3.5	4.9	1.2
CHONE	4.71	5.10	120	132	50	70	14	9.9	3.7	5.2	1.0

PECOTA, somewhat inexplicably, doesn't have a projection for Zach Jack, but you don't really need a fancy projection system to tell you he's the Brewers' seventh-best starter.

Overall, I think the Brewers look to have a pretty great starting rotation. Suppan might get too many starts considering his performance relative to the two CVs', but it's hard not to be excited about Sheets, Capuano, and Bush. I'll try to write up something similar for the starting lineup and get it posted tomorrow.

Update [2007-1-17 2:12:4 by battlekow]: Forgot to include Yo:

Proj	ERA	RA	IP	H	BB	K	HR	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
PECOTA	4.00	4.37	140.7	125	67	134	14	8.0	4.3	8.6	0.9
ZiPS	4.80	5.23	148.0	150	66	111	19	9.1	4.0	6.8	1.2
CHONE	4.45	4.84	106.0	105	58	94	12	8.9	4.9	8.0	1.0

Whoa. PECOTA absolutely loves him, but all of them are pretty damn good, considering he's pitched all of a half season above A-ball. The evidence against the Suppan signing mounts.

I considering posting Ben Hendrickson's numbers but...nah.