PECOTA Projections Are Out

BP released their PECOTA projections (subscriber only) today. Over the next couple days, I'd like to compare some of the more notable/interesting ones with their ZiPS and CHONE counterparts, starting today with the pitchers. You can see how those projection systems stacked up against each other and few others last year here.

Ben Sheets:

Proj ERA RA IP H BB K HR H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9
PECOTA 3.36 3.66 177.7 161 30 170 22 8.2 1.5 8.6 1.1
ZiPS 2.88 3.14 172.0 152 24 174 19 8.0 1.3 9.1 1.0
CHONE 3.01 3.25 155.0 139 27 167 16 8.1 1.6 9.7 0.9

Pretty unbefreakingly awesome across the board, but you knew that already.

Chris Capuano:

Proj ERA RA IP H BB K HR H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9
PECOTA 4.43 4.77 185.7 193 54 144 27 9.4 2.6 7.0 1.3
ZiPS 4.11 4.50 206.0 207 59 154 28 9.0 2.6 6.7 1.2
CHONE 3.92 4.25 195.0 194 56 163 26 9.0 2.6 7.5 1.2

Dave Bush:

Proj ERA RA IP H BB K HR H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9
PECOTA 4.14 4.51 179.7 186 44 128 22 9.3 2.2 6.4 1.1
ZiPS 3.79 4.14 202.0 198 43 146 23 8.8 1.9 6.5 1.0
CHONE 3.68 4.02 197.0 194 42 156 23 8.9 1.9 7.1 1.1

Bush actually projects to be a bit better than Capuano, a result of less walks and a few less home runs allowed. That said, I think Cappy's walk rates are projected a bit high; he made outstanding strides with his control last year (1.9 BB/9 in '06 vs. 3.7 in '04-'05), and even when he was struggling, it was because of hits and home runs, not walks. They'll be a fantastic 2-3 punch behind Sheets next year.

Jeff Suppan:

Proj ERA RA IP H BB K HR H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9
PECOTA 4.96 5.38 147.7 166 54 86 20 10.1 3.3 5.2 1.2
ZiPS 4.37 4.78 177.0 191 59 95 23 9.7 3.0 4.8 1.2
CHONE 4.77 5.18 191.0 218 68 111 24 10.3 3.2 5.2 1.1

Oof (hat tip to Al). It's interesting how much worse Suppan's control is than starters #1-3, considering his distinct lack of stuff. I guess that's why we're paying his as a fourth starter. Oh wait.

Claudio Vargas:

Proj ERA RA IP H BB K HR H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9
PECOTA 4.86 5.22 128.3 135 44 97 20 9.5 3.1 6.8 1.4
ZiPS 5.03 5.49 154.0 159 53 122 26 9.3 3.1 7.1 1.5
CHONE 4.44 4.82 155.0 160 56 122 24 9.3 3.3 7.1 1.4

Carlos Villanueva:

Proj ERA RA IP H BB K HR H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9
PECOTA 4.62 4.97 148.0 145 50 113 25 8.8 3.0 6.9 1.5
ZiPS 4.59 5.04 157.0 159 54 115 25 9.1 3.1 6.6 1.4
CHONE 4.30 4.68 148.0 147 58 119 22 8.9 3.5 7.2 1.3

In addition to having the same initials, Carlos Villanueva and Claudio Vargas also have very similar stats. Though I don't entirely buy Carlos' projections, both pitchers are projected to have significantly better peripherals than Jeff Suppan. Of course, these are just projections, but it's still pretty disappointing. Also disappointing is the fact that, barring injury, neither has a prayer of unseating Suppan for the #4 spot in the rotation.

Zach Jackson:

Proj ERA RA IP H BB K HR H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9
ZiPS 5.15 5.66 159 177 62 86 21 10.0 3.5 4.9 1.2
CHONE 4.71 5.10 120 132 50 70 14 9.9 3.7 5.2 1.0

PECOTA, somewhat inexplicably, doesn't have a projection for Zach Jack, but you don't really need a fancy projection system to tell you he's the Brewers' seventh-best starter.

Overall, I think the Brewers look to have a pretty great starting rotation. Suppan might get too many starts considering his performance relative to the two CVs', but it's hard not to be excited about Sheets, Capuano, and Bush. I'll try to write up something similar for the starting lineup and get it posted tomorrow.

Update [2007-1-17 2:12:4 by battlekow]: Forgot to include Yo:

Proj ERA RA IP H BB K HR H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9
PECOTA 4.00 4.37 140.7 125 67 134 14 8.0 4.3 8.6 0.9
ZiPS 4.80 5.23 148.0 150 66 111 19 9.1 4.0 6.8 1.2
CHONE 4.45 4.84 106.0 105 58 94 12 8.9 4.9 8.0 1.0

Whoa. PECOTA absolutely loves him, but all of them are pretty damn good, considering he's pitched all of a half season above A-ball. The evidence against the Suppan signing mounts.

I considering posting Ben Hendrickson's numbers but...nah.

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