Projecting the Starters

Yesterday I looked at how the rotation projected for next season; today, I'm going to scope out the starting eight (or thereabouts):

Johnny Estrada:

Proj	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	344	97	24	1	8	21	40	4	0	0	.282	.327	.425
ZiPS	401	111	27	0	8	22	49	7	0	0	.277	.323	.404
CHONE	392	109	24	1	9	22	46	7	0	0	.278	.328	.411

A lot of agreement here. Estrada looks like Damian Miller '05, which is fine production out of the catcher position. One thing worries me: his walks have declined from 39 in 462 ABs for Atlanta in '04 to 13 (!) in 414 for Arizona last year. As long as he stays closer to Damian Miller '05 than Pudge Rodriguez '05, it'll be okay, but keep your eye on that.

Prince Fielder:

Proj	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	501	146	32	2	28	59	98	8	7	3	.292	.373	.531
ZiPS	542	152	34	1	30	58	113	10	5	3	.280	.358	.513
CHONE	530	147	32	1	28	63	117	9	6	3	.277	.364	.501

All systems project growth for Prince; it's just a matter of how much. I don't think anyone's worried about him, for the next couple of years anyway.

Rickie Weeks:

Proj	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	452	124	27	4	16	59	45	15	14	5	.275	.358	.457
ZiPS	485	127	23	6	16	59	48	14	20	4	.262	.343	.433
CHONE	404	111	24	5	13	48	97	17	17	5	.274	.375	.453

Again, some very nice growth, considering Rickie barely slugged over .400 last year and walked only 30 times in 359 ABs. Both rates improve significantly in each projection. What's keeping them down a bit is the regression of his HBP rate--he was hit, amazingly, 19 times in those 359 at-bats last year. All of the above projections have significantly toned down that rate; however, Rickie has consistently shown an Biggio-like ability to get nailed thus far in his career, so I wouldn't be surprised if he got hit 25+ times in a full season. Of course, getting hit 25 times may very well preclude him from playing a full season.

Tony Graffanino:

Proj	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	322	89	19	2	6	32	49	3	6	3	.276	.345	.409
ZiPS	347	89	21	2	5	36	97	8	4	2	.256	.338	.372
CHONE	437	113	24	2	8	43	72	5	6	3	.258	.331	.374

Doesn't exactly scream "starting third baseman," does it? Hurry up, Ryan.

JJ Hardy:

Proj	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	356	45	20	1	11	34	51	3	2	1	.263	.329	.419
ZiPS	286	71	18	1	7	33	37	1	0	0	.248	.326	.392
CHONE	224	58	13	1	7	25	32	1	1	1	.261	.337	.420

Not as bad as I'd expected. I'd take .260/.330/.410 from JJ any day of the week and twice on Retro Fridays. I'm optimistic on his power, for whatever completely unscientific reason.

Corey Hart:

Proj	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	379	109	25	4	18	36	81	4	16	6	.288	.353	.517
ZiPS	463	122	29	6	17	46	99	4	19	11	.263	.333	.462
CHONE	357	97	20	3	12	33	79	1	17	7	.272	.336	.450

Holy PECOTA, Batman! ZiPS and CHONE have Corey staying the course, but PECOTA projects impressive growth. Were I betting man, I'd go with the former, but I'd be happy to be wrong.

Bill Hall:

Proj	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	527	146	34	5	28	53	139	4	12	6	.278	.346	.522
ZiPS	512	137	37	4	24	52	145	1	11	6	.268	.334	.496
CHONE	533	141	33	4	26	52	142	2	12	9	.264	.331	.487

ZiPS and CHONE seem pretty low compared to what I expect Hall to do next year. I think he'll walk quite a bit more than in any of those projections; he's improved his walk rate every year and his line over the last two months of last year was .269/.383/.522 (courtesy of David Pinto's fabulous Day By Day Database).

Geoff Jenkins:

Proj	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	363	97	20	2	14	38	87	6	3	1	.268	.345	.452
ZiPS	477	124	28	2	17	44	130	14	1	0	.260	.338	.434
CHONE	504	131	28	2	20	51	135	12	2	1	.260	.342	.442

Kevin Mench:

Proj	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	424	118	26	2	19	39	62	5	1	1	.279	.343	.486
ZiPS	474	129	28	3	19	36	92	7	1	1	.272	.330	.464
CHONE	469	121	26	2	17	38	67	5	2	1	.258	.321	.434

The Bench Brothers actually project fairly well, because, despite sucking last year, they both have relatively proven track records. The key question for both is: was last year a blip or a new level of performance? I have a lot more confidence in Mench bouncing back than Jenkins, for a couple reasons. Mench is only 29 and 126 ABs isn't much. I find it much more plausible that Jenkins, as he's aged, has lost some of his already-marginal ability to hit lefties. His continued success against righties actually contributes to his damning because it makes it less likely that his problems were injury-related.

Overall, pretty similar story to last year: moderate production with good upside. Graffanino is really the only sure bet to be below-average at his position. If Mench and Jenkins rebound and/or are utilized intelligently, they should provide good production. Estrada will hit well for a catcher. Health is paramount if Hardy and Weeks are going to contribute. Hall and Fielder will be the rocks, with Hart hopefully playing a strong third banana. Corey Koskie and Ryan Braun are the wildcards, but we'll look more at the bench tomorrow, with the bullpen and the dearly departed to follow.