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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Off-Season Theory, Part 2

The Jay did the setup, so I will shamelessly steal from him here:

What do you see the Brewers roster looking like in 2008? What should it look like? Here's your chance to play Doug Melvin and chart out the team's future.

The set-up:

This is a business, not dream world, so there's budgetary and roster constraints. Mark Attanasio wants to win with the best of them, but he and the board can't condone raising the payroll above $80 million. There's an awful lot of guys with no options as well, cramping your style. Trading is one way to deal with the crunch, but you have to make sure they're realistic (i.e., no Laynce Nix for Joe Mauer straight up) and don't raise the payroll too high. Your roster limit is 25 and it should be reasonably balanced (no 15-man pitching staff, Nedgar).

Star-divide

Here's the players currently on the team available (without free-agent re-signings) to put on the 2008 roster (note: arbitration and renewal numbers are my attempt to be realistic, call me on them or change it if you have a better idea). I'm not entirely sure on options for everyone, but I noted the players I know are out of them:

Johnny Estrada, C, last time eligible for arbitration (say roughly $4.2 million), can refuse assignment to minors
Prince Fielder, 1B, contract renewed (say 900k a la Ryan Howard), arbitration through 2011
Rickie Weeks, 2B, contract renewed (say 1.32M, same as this year), arbitration through 2011
J.J. Hardy, SS, eligible for arbitration (say 2.5M), arbitration through 2010
Ryan Braun, 3B, contract renewed (say 450k), arbitration through 2013
Craig Counsell, IF, 2.80M, club option for $3.40M for 2009, player option for $2.80M for 2009 if traded
Corey Hart, OF, contract renewed (say 425k), arbitration through 2011, out of options: MUST be on roster or placed on waivers.
Gabe Gross, OF, contract renewed (say 425k), arbitration through 2011, out of options: MUST be on roster or placed on waivers.
Laynce Nix, OF, contract renewed (say 400k); arbitration through 2011, out of options: MUST be on roster or placed on waivers
Tony Gwynn Jr., OF, contract renewed (say 400k)
Bill Hall, CF, 4.80M, $15.7M commitment through 2010 (club option for 2011)
Geoff Jenkins, LF/RF, club option for $9.00M
Kevin Mench, LF/RF, last time eligible for arbitration (say $4.2 million), can refuse assignment to minors

Ben Sheets, SP, $11.00M (may be traded to only 8 clubs; not sure which ones, presumably contenders)
Jeff Suppan, SP, $8.00M, $27.00M commitment through 2010, club option for 2011 (may block trades to 8 clubs in 2009-2010)
Chris Capuano, SP, eligible for arbitration (say $4.25M), arbitration through 2009
Claudio Vargas, SP, eligible for arbitration (say $3.50M), arbitration through 2009
Dave Bush, SP, eligible for arbitration (say $2.80M), arbitration through 2010
Yovani Gallardo, SP, contract renewed (say $425k), arbitration through 2013
Manny Parra, SP, contract renewed (say $400k), arbitration through 2013
Carlos Villanueva, SP, contract renewed (say $425k), arbitration through 2012
Derrick Turnbow, RP, $3.20M, arbitration through 2009
Matt Wise, last time eligible for arbitration (say $2.00M), can refuse assignment to minors
Brian Shouse, last time eligible for arbitration (say $1.25M), can refuse assignment to minors
Greg Aquino, contract renewed (say $400k), out of options: MUST be on roster or clear waivers
Seth McClung, eligible for arbitration (say $1.00M), out of options: MUST be on roster or clear waivers

Any prospects, minor league roster filler, etc., that you like (assume minimum salary of $400k each to make computation easier)

If you keep everyone on that list, you are on the hook for $70.47M of your $80M budget.
Take a gander at the free agent class list over at Cot's for inspiration and other relevant info.

Again, if I'm way off in my estimation of what a renewal or arbitration will yield, feel free to change it in your calculation or just complain. Good luck!

Okay, again thanks to the Jay for his diary post...  So  here's my take:

Okay, here are the things I know.

I know I have Fielder, Braun, Hart, Weeks, Hardy, and Hall in my lineup every day next year.

I know that Braun has to improve his defense at 3rd to help out my staff.

I need to figure out if Hall was just having the flipside anomaly to his 2006, or if moving to the outfield disrupted his game.

I need to buy out Geoff Jenkins for $0.5 million.  

I know Ben Sheets is my ace for 25-27 starts.  I might apply the Pedro rules to him.  I want a spot starter to minimize his workload.  

Things I don't know:
If Bill Hall isn't my CF, who is?  What do I do with the fact that we seem to have 6 guys for the back rotation spots and the spot starter slot?

Something I didn't know:
Look at Estrada's 2007 offensive numbers, then look at the numbers for Pudge Rodriguez.  He's really not that bad for a catcher.

What do I do?

Bill Hall and Ryan Braun become my LF and 3B.  I don't have the baseball knowledge to know which should be which.

For CF, I offer Chris Capuano to Kansas City for David DeJesus.  The Royals have Gathright, and would probably love to get a pitcher in return.   DeJesus is a lefty, and brings a 350 OBP.  I could slot him into the #2 hole between Weeks and Braun.

For the bullpen, I follow Jeff's advice and offer Coco enough money that I look respectable, but not enough money that I'm the top offer.  If he likes brats and wants to stay in Milwaukee, he takes the deal and doesn't break the bank.  If he decides he wants to cash in, I wish him well and attempt to use the draft picks wisely.  Bullpen arms are so volatile and unpredictable that building a bullpen from year to year seems to be relatively pointless.  We seem to have enough MLB caliber arms that we can cobble it together.  If Coco says no, I probably make an offer slightly less juicy to Linebrink, again hoping to keep him for a price that doesn't consume my entire budget.  As far as trades and acquisitions to build the pen/fill it out more if we don't like who we have, I trust the baseball people.  I haven't looked that deep at MLB, but I don't think we're that much worse than anyone else.

Ideally, I'd like my roster to be 13 hitters, 12 pitchers.  Our lineup is solid enough that I'll take the extra bullpen flexibility of the 12th pitcher, and just give guys days off as they warrant (not Ned Yost style).  That means we have 3 guys (Mench, Gross, and Gwynn) for 2 bench spots.  And only 1 backup infielder in Counsell.  I'd like to flip Gross for someone's extra backup IF, similar arbitration status.  I don't have a specific name in mind.  I like Gwynn as a defensive replacement, and as a pinch runner.

2008 Opening Day Roster
Lineup
Weeks  2B
DeJesus CF
Braun 3B/LF
Fielder 1B
Hart RF
Hall 3B/LF
Hardy SS
Estrada C

Bench
Mench OF
Gwynn OF
Counsell IF
IF acquired in Gross Flip
Mike Rivera/Rottino C

Rotation
Sheets
Gallardo
Suppan
Villanueva
Bush

Spot Starter
Vargas

Bullpen
Closer
Coco and/or Linebrink

Others (Keep 5)
Turnbow
Wise
Parra
Shouse
Aquino
McClung

At the very least, I've done this and maintained, not increased payroll.  If I can increase payroll, instead of trading Cappy for DeJesus, I pursue Aaron Rowand in Free Agency and trade the odd man out in my rotation for a higher quality RP, assuming I can make that move.

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Not bad, not bad at all.
I like it.

For some reason, DeJesus's name always comes up as a "guy we could get for the guy we have but don't want" -- Cubs fans have been talking about him for a long time, too.  I suspect the price would be quite a bit higher, but I could be wrong.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 1, 2007 9:38 PM CDT reply actions  

I'd be willing to give more to get him
But the Royals seem to like Joey Gathright, for whatever reason.  

by Matt L on Oct 1, 2007 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Mench
I would hazard a guess he'll be sent somewhere in the offseason after being offered arbitration since he'll probably cost too much to be a middling bench player. Can't say I don't like your ideas though.
Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Oct 1, 2007 9:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Thorough
I like the thoroughness of the analysis.  

I doubt KC will give up DeJesus...any thoughts into just making Gwynn an everyday player and a leadoff hitter?  It would solve alot of problems in Ned's lineup to have a real leadoff guy.  

And color me crazy...but I've still got faith in Cappy to come back in 08' in great form.  He really battled at the end of the season like a guy who wants it.  

Let's go in 08!  

by epo on Oct 1, 2007 10:40 PM CDT reply actions  

Gwynn
Gwynn managed a 326 OBP in 123 AB this year.  

That is unacceptable for a leadoff hitter.

His average was 260.  To hit leadoff for me, he'd probably need to raise his average to 295 or 300 to get his OBP up to the 360 range.  With his relative lack of power, nobody is gonna pitch around him, so his walks will never be that great.

by Matt L on Oct 1, 2007 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

50/50
Agreed on Gwynn.  Can we please stop talking about him like he's a real prospect now?  He's a career 4th OF, and that should be good enough.

I just moved to the KC area (Lawrence, KS, actually) and thought they love Gathright, they also really like DeJesus.  I think that they want to try them both, which is dumb.  I don't really think DeJesus would be worth it.  His 11.9 VORP is something we can get by sticking with Billy next year.

An idea I had was to see what it would take to get Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay.  I was looking at their team audit at BP and it looks like they could use some pitching.  Would we trade Villanueva or Parra and Gwynn to get him?  He's signed for a ridiculously reasonable price through 2010, and would really fill in nicely in LF.

I'm not sure paying Rowand what he's going to demand for his age 30-34 seasons will be the best idea.  If Sarge, Jr. got 5/55 last year, what will Rowand get this year?  Also, he's played really well (read: above his head) in a contract year in a hitter's park.  Things to consider . . .

"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Oct 2, 2007 12:06 AM CDT reply actions  

Crawford
I'd make any of the moves you were talking about for Crawford...  But I was figuring the Devil Rays would laugh at us for those kinds of offers.  I was trying to set a reasonable expectation of something that could be acquired.  If we can swindle Crawford for our excess assets, I'd be ecstatic.

And even though DeJesus's VORP was 11.9, his OBP ranked 37th among qualifying outfielders, with only a few true CF in front of him.  Despite how we all talk about how we want leadoff and #2 hitters with 370 OBP, there just aren't that many guys who do that for you.

by Matt L on Oct 2, 2007 12:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

The Devil Rays don't need pitching
I know it doesn't look like it on paper but right now they have two great pitchers in Scott Kazmir and James Shields.  Behind them they have Jason Hammels, Andy Sonnanstine, J.P. Howell, and Edwin Jackson.  Of those four guys, at least one and possibly two will pan out.  Which is fine because according to Rotowire's top prospect list by John Sickels, the Devil Rays have 3 of the top 15 prospects... and they are all pitchers: Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and David Price.  Now Price was just drafted and hasn't pitched a minor league game yet but Davis and McGee excelled at Double-A this year and will probably open up at Triple-A next season and get mid-season callups depending on how the quartet mentioned above do.  

All right, here's how good the Devil Rays pitching really is.  They have a guy named Jeff Niemann who you will also find on Rotowire's Top 100 Prospects but I tend to discount him because of his injury problems.  Anyway, Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Jeff Niemann, and David Price all have No. 1, No. 2 stuff let alone all the No. 4, No. 5 guys I mentioned before.  Capuano and Villanueva won't interest them.  Personally I'd rather move those guys to the bullpen to shore it up.  I think that's our best choice.

by MunichBrats on Oct 2, 2007 3:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

True.
I do suppose this aligns especially with their thinking -- the Rays can afford to wait for their pitching to develop because it's not like they will compete in 2008 or maybe even 2009, but by 2010 or so, things could really come together for them.  

In light of that, we should probably entertain offers.  I'm not sure who's available via trade, and because of this ignorance, I can't envision any trade that's worth pursuing aggressively.

"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Oct 2, 2007 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

3B or LF for Braun
I'm not sure what I think about this.  On one hand, Hall is a better 3B defensively and Braun in LF might not be as much of a liability.  But on the other hand, Braun's biggest weakness has been throwing, who knows what havoc he might wreak tossing them in the from the outfield.

I'm going to remain optimistic and hope that the point is moot though.  There's no reason that with an off season to focus on his defense Braun can't come back next season and be at least an average 3B defensively.  Pujols started his career as a relatively shakey defender and now he's one of the top 1B in the game.

by stevie ray Braun on Oct 2, 2007 1:26 AM CDT reply actions  

I think throws from the outfield are easier
Not that Chuck Knoblauch would agree with me.

The cut off man can move to where the throw is, whereas first base is pretty much stuck there.  A throw to the plate takes longer, too, so there's a little more time to react.

But I agree, I think you have to give him a chance to own third base.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 2, 2007 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

dump counsell
he is going to be 38 next year. he had his worst offensive season in his career. when we had him a few years ago, he had one of his worst seasons. keep dillon as a utility man. hall can play ss if needed.trade vargas since he will never have a better season - or a luckier one. trade gross and turnbow (or vargas) along with a pitching prospect for carl crawford.

by richars freimark on Oct 2, 2007 2:23 PM CDT reply actions  

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