Nate Silver on Ryan Braun

by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 18, 2007 12:40 PM CDT in Statistical Analysis Comment 26 comments

At BP Unfiltered, Nate analyzes Braun's defense. It's not pretty. Pick your metric of choice: it's still not pretty.

Some points of reference:

...this would imply that Braun's UZR falls somewhere between Miguel Cabrera's -28, and 75% of his 2007 VORP, which works out to -43. So here again, Braun ranks as one of the worst four or five defensive players in baseball, challenged only by Pat Burrell's -34, Manny Ramirez' -33, and Raul Ibanez` -30. By consensus view, Braun was probably the very worst defensive player in baseball in 2007; the only real competitors for the title might be Ramirez, and perhaps Burrell.

When people start talking about your defense in the same sentence as what Manny Ramirez does when he's not hitting (I hesitate to use the d-word to describe that), it's bad news.

But, Nate makes the interesting point that the average right fielder last year was actually worse than the average third baseman. It's something I've noticed over the last few years: for whatever reason, right fielders aren't, as a group, the mashers you'd expect them to be, especially compared to their brethren in left.

That leads him to some ideas:

Braun, in spite have never played the position professionally, is probably much closer to being an adequate defensive corner outfielder than an adequate defensive third baseman. He runs reasonably well, and while his arm is not accurate, it is probably strong enough to deter baserunners from advancing on him Johnny Damon style. And the good news is that there are any number of permutations that would allow the Brewers to improve their defense without really losing any ground at the plate.

He offers some ideas to do just that, which are worth reading. Some are just plain not going to happen, like signing Mike Lowell, which I suspect would be prohibitively expensive. (But it would answer the question: who could we sign to play left field? Lowell to third, Braun to left.)

What I'd like to do is a much more thorough analysis of how much some of our starters--Cappy in particular--were hurt by Braun's arrival. It's a research project that will probably have to wait a while, but I do have the data--hit location for every batted ball in 2007--to see just who was hurt the most by Braun's subpar defense. If his fielding was really almost as bad as his hitting was good, it's a concern the Brewers will have to take very, very seriously.

0 recs | Comment 26 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I know I mentioned this

in one of the diaries, but I'm curious about Braun's defense as well. For the most part, I think we're talking about the throw to first, right? Range isn't much of an issue at third, other than for bunts, and I don't recall an unusually high number of batted balls clanking off his glove.

I can't say I'm fond of the trend to keep moving our would-be infielders to the ourfield. If we move Braun, then our whole outfield of Hart-Hall-Braun will be made up of ex-infielders.

I'm sure there's an explanation for this, but can someone explain to me how the bad defense is resulting in the high ERAs for most of our pitching staff? You hit it to Braun, he air mails the ball to Alterra's, fine. The runs scored are going to be unearned. If anything, I'd think a team with a lot of errors would result in lower ERAs: once Braun's throw bounces off the art museum, the proceeding runs are going to be unearned, and if the pitcher completes the inning giving up an Cappy-esque 5 runs, his ERA goes down (as do the odds of our winning the game).

I can understand it if by bad defense we're talking range, so more batted balls are becoming hits. But I get the feeling that's not what we're talking about.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 18, 2007 12:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well

Unless there's two outs, only the runner reaching base is for sure going to be unearned. Thus if the pitcher gives up four runs his ERA gets charged for three earned and one unearned (unless of course what would have been the third out had the error not occurred takes place somewhere in there and complicates it further). Who knows, maybe after the error he's shaken up mentally (since the argument goes these guys aren't automatons :).

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Oct 18, 2007 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

When hitters who should be out continue to reach base, the pitchers have to throw more pitches than what should be necessary, leading to tired (and frustrated) arms and more and more runs (either in that inning or in the next), which could both raise ERAs and wear out starters and bullpens.

I don't have any idea what should be done with Braun. I hope he learns to play third well enough to get by. When Laporta comes up, he'll probably need to play the outfield, because he's not known as being a very good defensive player either, from what I've heard and read. I hope I'm wrong about that.

by joedevivre on Oct 18, 2007 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep, you're right.

(in part) :)

Rough math: THT says Braun's zone rating is .564, which s-u-double-cks. League average is .684 at third, which means he's not playing plays on 12% of the balls hit to him that other 3bs would.

However, if you assume that each one of his eleventy-billion [ed note: 25] errors was a play he could've made otherwise, his error-less RZR goes up to .676.

Now, that's a bit silly, because all those other 3Bs, even Scott Rolen when healthy, are making errors too. So the true error-less RZR for league average 3Bmen is probably in the low .700s.

But, throwing out the errors (which don't directly affect a pitcher's ERA), he's probably about 8-10 plays below average. That's all range/positioning stuff. So he's not helping his pitchers on the earned run front, but it's not devastating.

All that said, I suspect the bigger killer to guys like Capuano and Vargas is that an error means an inning is longer, they are pitching with guys on base, etc. ...all the trickle-down effects of having to face one more batter when they really "shouldn't" have.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 18, 2007 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hall to 3B

I actually like one of his ideas - Hall to 3B, Braun to RF, Hart to CF. Hall's played a decent 3B in the past and is certainly a big upgrade there defensively compared to Braun. While Hall showed potential in center this year, he was also maddeningly inconsistent and looked uncomfortable all year.

Hart wasn't bad defensively in center this year. I don't think he's the long-term answer there but he'd do for now. He's probably league average or slightly below in center. I'm not sure if LaPorta will be ready defensively by next year but there are plenty of in-house options to fill a LF void temporarily.

It seems to me these moves would shore up the defense considerably compared to last season.

by kingcharlesxii on Oct 18, 2007 12:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i too like that idea

"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue

by Michael M on Oct 18, 2007 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hall

That'd be essentially his third position change in three years, wouldn't it? That's bound to make anyone look inconsistent, right? I think Hall will be fine in CF if they leave him there for another season. Like you said, he showed potential and I think next year he'll be more comfortable out there.

If defense is such a huge concern at third base, why not move Braun to a corner outfield spot, Hart to the other, and take an offensive hit by plugging Counsell in at third? Or maybe take a flier on Aaron Boone or equivalent middling third baseman? Either way, something to quit the carousel of changing positions (especially two at once). I doubt multiple position switches will help the defense all that much.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Oct 18, 2007 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hall

Well, I don't think this would be as big a change for Hall - he's played third before. Hall's got the talent to be a good center fielder. However, last year, he was probably the worst center fielder defensively in the major leagues. Heck, according to the linked BP article, he was one of the worst defenders in the majors period. The team really can't afford to be terrible defensively at as many positions as they were last year. Hall, Braun and Fielder are on the linked list - I can't imagine Weeks is too far behind either.

On the flip side, you could say that returning Hall to a position he's more comfortable and familiar with might help him offensively and defensively next year. Almost for sure he'd be much less of a defensive liability compared to 2007 in center.

The other matter is that you don't want to punt on offense at third either like you would by playing Counsell. That's just as bad as keeping 2007 Ryan Braun at third but in a different way. You want to maximize offense and defense at every position. The Brewers did a great job of maximizing offense in the second half of 2007, not so much defensively unfortunately.

by kingcharlesxii on Oct 18, 2007 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Either way

If Hall has the talent to be a good center fielder then wouldn't he improve simply by playing in center again next year? You could say he'd almost for sure be less of a defensive liability in center next year.

Was Hall a great fielder at third base in the first place? I don't know where to get numbers on that, but if he wasn't a terrific defender to begin with, moving him back won't solve the entire problem. I don't see how continuing to play musical chairs and moving guys to new positions will improve the defense. If Hall was discombobulated by moving to the outfield, who's to say the same won't happen with Braun or anyone else you move around? I tend to think the team will improve even without dramatically rearranging the defensive alignments.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Oct 18, 2007 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i tend to agree

and that's what Nate was getting at, saying that there isn't much room for experimentation once players hit the bigs.

BUT ...if the powers that be were convinced that this time it would be different (much like they were with Hall going into this season), then they'd probably go for it. With the expectation that these changes are permanent.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 18, 2007 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i like this idea as well...

btw; shouldn't corey be our CF?

Asked what was said during the phone conversation with LaRussa, Yost said, "That falls under 'nobody's business" right; except all brewer fans who wanted a win!

by Jamie in LA on Oct 18, 2007 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

That Hall to 3B, Corey to CF, and Braun to RF is the only thing for it. I doubt it will happen though.

by Braunstalker on Oct 18, 2007 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeff,

what do you think Melvin's and the organizations view are on this? I wonder too what Jack Z thinks and if he has any input where braun would play

"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue

by Michael M on Oct 18, 2007 12:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Why don't we just move Braun

to LF and sign A-Rod to play 3B?

Oh, right...the money.

If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Oct 18, 2007 12:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Lowell could be bought

Ryan Braun is the Ed Hochuli of Third Basemen. Prince is now Chubber Lang

by hyattff2003 on Oct 18, 2007 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LETS

Move Prince to Catcher... Come on! I do it when I play MLB '07!

Hey Ned! Ever heard of small ball? Or are your balls too small?

by CATALYST on Oct 18, 2007 1:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

2008 - Joe Crede in Blue and Gold

For 2008 I like an outfield of Braun, Hall and Hart. I was pretty convinced we should just bite the bullet and allow Braun the chance to develop at 3rd because he is such a good athlete and had the "tools" to do it but the scouting report and the numbers from Nate Silver convinced me. Mov'im. L'chaim!

As for Hall, granted he had a rough year but he is one guy I think we need to be patient with. CFs who can run, throw and hit are hard to come by (just ask the Cubs who could be starting Jacques Jones there on 3/31/08). I really think Hall has the potential and he just needs a position to settle in to and he could thrive. No more moves for Billy.

Hart - pencil him in for 150 starts in RF.

Now at 3B I really like the Joe Crede idea. I've seen him play a good deal in Chicago and while he is coming off injury, when healthy he is outstanding in the field. And he will probably give you 25 HRs and a 800+ OPS. I think the Sox would let him go (they have Josh Fields as an heir apparant.) And if we offered a Vargas or Bush and Manny Parra we could get it done.

by Jwillie67 on Oct 18, 2007 3:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i am all for

offering vargas for anything

by DoubleJ235 on Oct 18, 2007 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

All of this also begs the question

What kind of off season program does Braun (and Prince, for that matter) need to do to improve his defensive?

I really don't know how much time a guy's body needs to recover and how much time these guys take off from baseball related activity. But, what kind of drills should he be doing? How often? With whom? Can the team set a schedule for him, or does he go off on his own?

by oaklandbrewerfan on Oct 18, 2007 7:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Crede, Manny, etc.

what Manny Ramirez does when he's not hitting . . .

Jeff, by this do you mean peeing inside the Green Monster? Or cutting off throws from the CF?

I kind of like the Crede deal, because it should really improve the infield defense, and if we just move Braun to LF, it means that we're replacing the Gross/?'s offensive spot with Crede, which might end up being an offensive upgrade, too.

The problem is, that a trade with the White Sox would probably involve Bill Hall, which means that we'd be out our CF, and then be back to square one.

I wouldn't mind a Lowell signing, but it wouldn't be my first choice.

I kind of like giving LaPorta a shot at LF out of spring camp like Nate Silver said (Hall to 3B, Hart to CF, Braun to RF), and if that fails you have the Gross/? platoon to fall back on, and you haven't spent any money.

Also, A-Rod. I could pull a D. Orlando Ledbetter here, but it would only be a joke.

"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Oct 18, 2007 11:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

lol

A lineup card with Griffey batting third, Burnitz fourth and Jenkins fifth would be omnipotent.
i love it

by DoubleJ235 on Oct 19, 2007 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the best part

is that burnitz and jenkins are untouchable in a trade for a guy who was, at that time, the best player in the game (okay, maybe he and bonds were close, but Griff was fantastic defender at a premium position then, too)

"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Oct 19, 2007 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

Asked what was said during the phone conversation with LaRussa, Yost said, "That falls under 'nobody's business" right; except all brewer fans who wanted a win!

by Jamie in LA on Oct 19, 2007 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan has to win ROY

So Tulowitzki has an OPS of .838. Big whoop. Ryan Braun's is over 1.000.

So Ryan likes to airmail a few throws. He's just keeping the fans interested in the game.

Seriously, how can Troy Tushybottom really expect to get this award? I don't get it.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 22, 2007 7:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

so what you're saying is...

Braun is batting 1,000?

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 22, 2007 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I haven't seen him make an out in weeks. Or an error, for that matter.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 23, 2007 5:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Search

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati Red Reporter	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2