Omar Minaya 2, Doug Melvin 0, Brewers Fans -7

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 18, 2007 4:07 PM CST in Transactions Comment 20 comments

The Mets signed Matt Wise to a one-year deal.

Let's review the transactions here:

Brewers traded Johnny Estrada to the Mets instead of non-tendering him.
Brewers acquire Guillermo Mota in the deal, along with his $3.2MM salary for 2008. Mets fans rejoice.
Mets get a better catcher and non-tender Estrada. That's what we probably would've done, so the Mets literally dumped Mota's contract on us.
We have a roster crunch and have to non-tender Matt Wise. Mota may be the worst pitcher in the pen right now, so we basically kept Mota instead of Wise.
Mets sign Wise, probably for less than half of what the Brewers will pay Mota.

Short version: the Brewers traded Matt Wise for Guillermo Mota and took on an extra $1.5-2MM to do so.

The only way this is defensible to me AT ALL is if the Brewers know something about Mota or Wise that we don't know. Maybe Mota is ready to bounce back (though he doesn't have that lengthy of a good track record) and maybe Wise really is done after hitting Pedro Lopez in the face. I guess we'll see. It's also possible that, when Melvin traded for Mota, he couldn't imagine that he'd be able to get three more superior relievers in Gagne, Riske, and Torres, and didn't think Mota's acquisition would mean we couldn't keep Wise.

But, regardless of the thought process, this doesn't make me happy. I wasn't happy about losing Wise before, but losing Wise to the Mets is even more obnoxious.

For the record, my projections have Mota pitching 68 innings with an ERA of 4.48, 25 walks and 48 strikeouts. Wise projects with an ERA of 4.56, 61 IP, 20 walks and 42 K's. I would've thought Wise would come out a little better, but that's a projection for Miller Park with the Brewers defense, so it's probably almost identical if you neutralize everything. I'd certainly bet on Wise to have the better year. Either way, even if the results are similar, the Brewers are going to pay more for their middle reliever.

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Melvin seems to like harder throwers

So if they do project even, he'd probably prefer Mota over Wise no matter what.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Dec 18, 2007 4:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

you think so?

it certainly looks that way based on this season's acquisitions, but we are talking about the same GM who has traded for or salvaged Dan Kolb, Shouse, Capuano, Vargas, and Doug Davis, not to mention Wise himself.

I realize you could make an equally long list of hard throwers, I just wonder whether Doug does have that prejudice.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 18, 2007 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We probably came out behind

but I don't think Melvin made any egregious errors. With the Kendall signing in the works, he had to dump Estrada somewhere in a hurry before another team signed Kendall in a crappy catcher market, and in a vacuum Estrada for Mota was and is good for us (we needed a slightly overpaid reliever more than an overpaid catcher). But we ended up getting three much better relievers and got stuck with Mota instead of Wise. I like Wise too, but it's not necessarily a bad thing having to drop a pitcher because you have too many better pitchers.

Breaking News: Upcoming Hostess Report rumored to implicate Prince Fielder, Ray King, CC Sabathia, among others.

by stevie ray Braun on Dec 18, 2007 4:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

but we DIDN'T have to drop Estrada

we could've kept him on the roster until last week, or just DFA'd him. It would've cost us nothing. He wasn't signed to a contract, so we didn't owe him anything for 07.

We could've signed Kendall anyway, at the same time we did.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 18, 2007 5:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

Breaking News: Upcoming Hostess Report rumored to implicate Prince Fielder, Ray King, CC Sabathia, among others.

by stevie ray Braun on Dec 18, 2007 10:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

the signing

it was definitely a wise signing by the mets, definitely not as riske as giving mota 3.2 million

by marty22 on Dec 18, 2007 11:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think

I'm speaking for everyone here when I say: Ugh.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 19, 2007 5:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You're not the only one!

The Mets blogs are not exactly jumping for joy on this one either, you can see it here. At the end of the day if the switch was even-steven and we paid more The Stache has to take a black mark for the move(s).

by 80badger on Dec 19, 2007 9:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

reliver projections

are you only using three years of data for reliever projections?

how reliable would you guess they are given that often three years of reliever data is less than a single above average season from a starter, and that usage patterns vary enough to have a some effect on performance?

for me, it's the single biggest reason not to spend money on a bullpen... the projectability of relievers is just too tricky.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Dec 19, 2007 12:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

yes

and I freely admit that they are not very reliable compared to starter projections, and even less reliable because pitcher projections are tougher than hitter projections in the first place.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 19, 2007 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was going to ask about your RP projections also,

You are projecting 61 IP for Wiser in '08, but that would be his highest total since '05, and that would be 8 innings higher than his average over the last 4 years. Other than an unfortunate salad thong incident, I don't recall too many serious injuries that would've prevented more IP.

Your projection is 68 IP for Mota, that would be his 2nd highest total since '05, and since he threw 67 in '06 it's really close to being the 3rd highest. It's also about 2 innings below his average over the last 4 years.

Does the projection factor in Mota's injuries? To what extent? Is the projection more heavily weighted toward recent years ('07 & '08)? If so Mota should be projected for more IP then, no?

My $0.02=I think that Wise's (in)effectiveness was only half of the problem. The other problem was that he simply had no stamina/durability. Even when healthy, the guy would come in and lob 10 82 MPH pitches in the vicinity of the plate, and then he'd go to the pen and you couldn't use him again for like a week. It seemed like the pen wore down last year, and it was b/c certain guys were under heavy inning restrictions. Is it possible that Mota pitching 10+ innings (compared to MW) will actually improve the overall bullpen ERA by spreading around the IP a little bit? It's got to at least be a possibility......

(I never really cared for Mr. Wise, and I am happy with the change. sorry.)

If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Dec 19, 2007 1:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

playing time is tricky to project

and even trickier for relievers.

but basically, I weight the last three years 3/2/1, but what can be deceptive is that I DON'T base playing time on IP, I base it on batters faced. I don't have time to look at the numbers right now, but it's not necessarily a surprise if Wise's IP is higher than average if the batters faced is close to the same.

injuries aren't factored in, except to the extent that they affect playing time and performance stats.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 19, 2007 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

OK Cool....thanks for the explanation Jeff,

It just seems to me that Mota is better, even if we are comparing the benefits of the worst pitcher in the pen.

Wise's WHIP has gone up in each of the last 3 seasons, where Mota's has gone down. Wise's ERA has gone up in each of the last 3 seasons, and Mota's went down in '05 & '06 before his bad '07.

Your short version mentioned that it's essentially a Wise for Mota trade + about 1.75 Mil to the Brewers payroll. Some portion of that difference in payroll has to be attributed to the inflationary nature of releiver contracts these days though, right? It costs more now to get the same thing from '05. Essentially we're getting the same pitcher (Though Mota should throw more innings with a better ERA), but at an updated cost.

Seems OK....and I am OK with Mark A. spending money so that I don't have to hear about how a certain pitcher's little feelings are shattered because he hit a guy. Seriously, that got pretty annoying last year.

If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Dec 19, 2007 2:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Mota will outperform Wise

Wise is done after hitting Pedro Lopez. Mota tends to do quite well in his first season with a new team. Trust in the 'stache, this will work out for us.

by cappad0nna on Dec 19, 2007 3:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

i agree...

and, congrats to matty; who actually got a RAISE??? wow. good for him!

Jamie is a Softball Champion!

by Jamie in LA on Dec 19, 2007 8:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Raises

Remember, Kevin Mench got a $600,000 raise after his poor 2006.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Dec 19, 2007 9:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

April 11-13

Brewers at Mets and we get to see what Wise has left. I say Braun goes deep off him. And Mota gets taunted just a little less than John Rocker.

by molitorfan on Dec 19, 2007 8:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Collect expensive relievers with dubious prospects for 2008.
?
Profit!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 20, 2007 12:08 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Good Wise analysis at Mets Geek

http://www.metsgeek.com/articles/2007/12/20/getting-wiser/

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 20, 2007 11:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Mota

last season Mota had an xERA of 4.37, Wise had a 4.69. Wise has collapsed year after year in the second half so cannot really be counted on for a full season.

I guess I fail to see what the big deal is. Mota pitched a lot better than his ERA suggested last year.

by Ender on Dec 22, 2007 12:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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