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10 Year Review: The Starters

The Brewers starting pitchers have been the biggest difference between the last couple of years and the dark ages in the late '90's.  No more Rafeal Roque opening day assignments here.  The following is a summary of how many started the Brewers have used and their composite ERA the last 10 years.

          Number of           
Year   Starters Used   ERA
2006        12            4.73
2005          8            4.02
2004        12            4.21
2003        12            5.48
2002        13            5.18
2001        13            5.13
2000        12            5.09
1999          9            5.22
1998        10            5.01
1997        10            4.48

Looking at this we should expect about 10 pitchers to get starts for the Crew this year.  By my estimation this would most likely include:  Sheets, Capuano, Bush, Suppan, Vargas, Villanueva, Jackson, Gallardo, and two others.

Now take a look at what the Crew has gotten out of its top 5 starters the last 10 years.  The "top 5" is considered the five pitchers who started the most games each year.
    Games Started     ERA   WHIP   K/9 IP  
2006         135        4.36    1.28    7.12  (Capuano, Davis, Bush, Ohka, Sheets)   
2005         136        4.07    1.35    7.21  (Capuano, Davis, Santos, Sheets, Ohka)   
2004         133        3.92    1.28    7.60  (Davis, Sheets, Santos, Obermueller, Capuano)   
2003         129        5.39    1.49    6.22  (Franklin, Sheets, Kinney, Rusch, Obermueller)   
2002         124        4.85    1.52    6.36  (Rusch, Sheets, Quevedo, Wright, Neugebauer)   
2001         122        5.06    1.52    5.75  (Wright, Haynes, Sheets, Levrault, Rigdon)   
2000         124        4.58    1.51    5.31  (Haynes, Wright, D'Amico, Snyder, Bere)   
1999         121        5.07    1.52    5.35  (Karl, Woodard, Nomo, Pulsipher, Abbott)   
1998         126        4.85    1.48    6.02  (Karl, Woodard, Juden, Eldred, Woodall)   
1997         133        4.43    1.35    5.71  (Eldred, Karl, D'Amico, Mercedes, McDonald)   

Two things that stand out here to me.  First, every year about 30 starts are going to come from people other than the top 5.  Second, look at the marked difference the last three years.

One other startling fact about the Brewers pitching the last 15 years...from 1990 thru 2002 exactly two Brewer pitchers struck out 150 batters in a single season (Eldred '93 and Nomo).  The Brewers even had two seasons (albeit the strike shortened '94 & '95) where not a single pitcher broke 100 K's.  In comparison since 2002 nine pitchers have had 150 K's in a season (Sheets three times, Capuano twice, Davis three times, and Bush)

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Fascinating...
Would it be overly optimistic to say 7 or 8 starters might just cover us for the year, with the top 5 making 140+ starts?

I looked at 5-year averages for Sheets and Suppan and 2-year averages for Capuano, Sheets, and Vargas (because they haven't been starting regularly for as long).

If you add 'em up, you get something like this:

149 GS   6.2 Inn/GS   2.72 K/BB   4.24 ERA

This includes a 2005 season in which David Bush only pitched 24 starts for Toronto, with 9 starts in AAA.  Also included is a 2005 season in which Vargas made 23 starts in the majors and 5 at AAA.  If you leave those out and just use Bush's and Vargas's 1st full year in the majors, life is even better:

156.5 GS   6.3 Inn/GS   2.88 K/BB   4.23 ERA

These totals include 28.2 GS from Sheets, which doesn't seem unreasonable if he truly is close to 100%.

That many starts by your top 5 looks impossible in this day and age.  But even considering Sheets's struggles to stay healthy, the Stache appears to have assembled an extremely durable, consistent, and quality pitching staff.  Ok...somebody tell me how unrealistic I'm being.

by DaleCoop14 on Feb 22, 2007 4:05 PM CST reply actions  

Not that it can't happen but...
The Brewers have had exactly two years since 1980 where their top 5 starters made at least 140+ starts.  1992 (Wegman, Navarro, Bosio, Bones and Eldred)  and 1986 (Higuera, Nieves, Wegman, Tim Leary, Danny Darwin).  

For some comparison six MLB teams accomplished the feat last year:
White Sox - 159
Colorado - 154
Detroit - 145
San Fran, Seattle - 144
Oakland - 141

by Infield Fly Rule on Feb 22, 2007 4:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Moral Of The Story
Involve Bill Wegman with the pitching coaching staff this year and we've got a shot to make it happen... he is the common denominator.

by McMolten on Feb 23, 2007 11:42 AM CST reply actions  

I always liked Wegman
He always went out there and took the ball giving the Crew a chance to win.  If he reads this blog, please know that he was appreciated.

by nmc on Feb 24, 2007 5:48 PM CST up reply actions  

is it bad..
that i always think of the 92 team and how good it was rather than the 82 team
Can we bring back the huge Keg and cup for Bernie?

by grobbins on Feb 24, 2007 8:31 PM CST reply actions  

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(updated 2.15.2012 at 1:03 PM CST)


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