10 Year Review: The Starters
The Brewers starting pitchers have been the biggest difference between the last couple of years and the dark ages in the late '90's. No more Rafeal Roque opening day assignments here. The following is a summary of how many started the Brewers have used and their composite ERA the last 10 years.
Number of
Year Starters Used ERA
2006 12 4.73
2005 8 4.02
2004 12 4.21
2003 12 5.48
2002 13 5.18
2001 13 5.13
2000 12 5.09
1999 9 5.22
1998 10 5.01
1997 10 4.48
Looking at this we should expect about 10 pitchers to get starts for the Crew this year. By my estimation this would most likely include: Sheets, Capuano, Bush, Suppan, Vargas, Villanueva, Jackson, Gallardo, and two others.
Now take a look at what the Crew has gotten out of its top 5 starters the last 10 years. The "top 5" is considered the five pitchers who started the most games each year.
Games Started ERA WHIP K/9 IP
2006 135 4.36 1.28 7.12 (Capuano, Davis, Bush, Ohka, Sheets)
2005 136 4.07 1.35 7.21 (Capuano, Davis, Santos, Sheets, Ohka)
2004 133 3.92 1.28 7.60 (Davis, Sheets, Santos, Obermueller, Capuano)
2003 129 5.39 1.49 6.22 (Franklin, Sheets, Kinney, Rusch, Obermueller)
2002 124 4.85 1.52 6.36 (Rusch, Sheets, Quevedo, Wright, Neugebauer)
2001 122 5.06 1.52 5.75 (Wright, Haynes, Sheets, Levrault, Rigdon)
2000 124 4.58 1.51 5.31 (Haynes, Wright, D'Amico, Snyder, Bere)
1999 121 5.07 1.52 5.35 (Karl, Woodard, Nomo, Pulsipher, Abbott)
1998 126 4.85 1.48 6.02 (Karl, Woodard, Juden, Eldred, Woodall)
1997 133 4.43 1.35 5.71 (Eldred, Karl, D'Amico, Mercedes, McDonald)
Two things that stand out here to me. First, every year about 30 starts are going to come from people other than the top 5. Second, look at the marked difference the last three years.
One other startling fact about the Brewers pitching the last 15 years...from 1990 thru 2002 exactly two Brewer pitchers struck out 150 batters in a single season (Eldred '93 and Nomo). The Brewers even had two seasons (albeit the strike shortened '94 & '95) where not a single pitcher broke 100 K's. In comparison since 2002 nine pitchers have had 150 K's in a season (Sheets three times, Capuano twice, Davis three times, and Bush)
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Fascinating...
I looked at 5-year averages for Sheets and Suppan and 2-year averages for Capuano, Sheets, and Vargas (because they haven't been starting regularly for as long).
If you add 'em up, you get something like this:
149 GS 6.2 Inn/GS 2.72 K/BB 4.24 ERA
This includes a 2005 season in which David Bush only pitched 24 starts for Toronto, with 9 starts in AAA. Also included is a 2005 season in which Vargas made 23 starts in the majors and 5 at AAA. If you leave those out and just use Bush's and Vargas's 1st full year in the majors, life is even better:
156.5 GS 6.3 Inn/GS 2.88 K/BB 4.23 ERA
These totals include 28.2 GS from Sheets, which doesn't seem unreasonable if he truly is close to 100%.
That many starts by your top 5 looks impossible in this day and age. But even considering Sheets's struggles to stay healthy, the Stache appears to have assembled an extremely durable, consistent, and quality pitching staff. Ok...somebody tell me how unrealistic I'm being.
Not that it can't happen but...
For some comparison six MLB teams accomplished the feat last year:
White Sox - 159
Colorado - 154
Detroit - 145
San Fran, Seattle - 144
Oakland - 141
by Infield Fly Rule on Feb 22, 2007 4:33 PM CST up reply actions
Moral Of The Story
by McMolten on Feb 23, 2007 11:42 AM CST reply actions

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