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Around SBN: Knicks 90, Raptors 87: "Shump and Lin wouldn't let us lose."

Aquino through 6 games

According to Brian Anderson, "Greg Aquino has been lights out so far this season," leading to some disbelief in the booth last night as Aquino melted down and allowed several inherited runs and a couple of his own.  According to Ned Yost, "We put [Aquino] out there to do a job, and he didn't get it done. He's been doing the job lately. This was one of those nights that he didn't."

Has he been doing the job lately?  Many of us seem to remember differently than Ned, so I went back through the MLB play-by-play data to see if maybe we owe Ned an apology.  I don't think we do.  Aquino's record suggests that he was likely to allow inherited runs, and Ned's comments that he "didn't get the job done," are clearly intended to defect attention from Yost's gross mismanagement of the inning.

The play-by-play data appears below the jump.  In summary, Aquino had issues in his first game, allowing 2 hits and then walking the pitcher to load the bases, after which Shouse bailed him out.

Then, in games against the Marlins and the Cubs, Aquino pitched some good innings, notching several strikeouts.  He did not inherit any runners in these games.

In Aquino's last 2 outings, he did inherit baserunners, and in both occasions, he allowed those runners to score.

When Yost sent Aquino to get the last out with the bases loaded, it was a bad idea.  It was grossly negligent and unforgivably stupid to not have another reliever ready to go if Aquino failed.  And Aquino's recent history showed that he would fail in that situation.

Don't blame Aquino.  He's a decent middle reliever who can chew up a couple middle innings for you.  He is not a closer-type reliever who can come in and get an out in high leverage situations.  Ned Yost is supposed to be smart enough to know that.

Star-divide

Apr 3  LAD

Top 6th
o Luis Gonzalez flies out to Bill Hall
o Matt Kemp flies out to Bill Hall
o Wilson Betemit singles to left
o Ramon Martinez singles to left, betemit to 2nd
o Randy Wolf walks (the pitcher).  Betemit to 3rd, Martinez to 2nd.
o Shouse comes in and induces a groundball from Pierre, Martinez out at 2nd.

APR 7  CHC

Top 8th
o Murton grounds out, Hardy to Fielder
o De Rosa grounds out, Counsell to Fielder
o Blanco lines out to Bill Hall

Top 9th
o Daryle Ward single to center
o Soriano called out on strikes
o Izturis double play, Hardy to Weeks to Fielder

APR 9  @FLA

Bottom 7th
o Amezaga strikes out swinging
o Uggla grounds out, Graffy to Fielder
o Cabrera flies out to RF Mench

APR 10 @FLA

Bottom 10th
o De Aza flies out to Bill Hall
o Ross ground out, Counsell to Fielder
o Amezaga ground out, Counsell to Fielder

Bottom 11th
o Uggla strike out swinging
o Cabrera strike out swinging, Estrada to Fielder
o Jacobs strikes out swinging

APR 14 @STL

Bottom 7th

o Miles single to RF Hart.  Edmonds scores, Molina to 3rd
o Eckstein walks.  Miles to 2nd.
o Duncan pops out to Graffanino foul.

APR 16 @CIN

Bottom 6th
o Encarnacion single to Bill Hall.  Phillips scores, Dunn scores.
o Castro flies out to RF Hart

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yup
He's a decent middle reliever who can chew up a couple middle innings for you.  He is not a closer-type reliever who can come in and get an out in high leverage situations.

Pretty much my opinion, too. So far, he just doesn't seem to do well with baserunners, whether they're inherited or his own (i.e. his first game). Put him on a quick hook and don't try to use him as a rally-killer, and he'll be fine.

by Zeyes on Apr 18, 2007 11:29 AM CDT reply actions  

Great post.
Great post.  To further the point, the more critical the situaion, the less effective he's been (e.g., the Chicago outing on 4/7 was garbage time). Shouse, on the other hand, has been terrific and should have been allowed to go after Phillips or to pitch carefully to Phillips and go after Hatteberg.
Whatever happened to Ramser Correa???!

by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Apr 18, 2007 12:50 PM CDT reply actions  

Thank You
for the post. That's been my opinion that the 0.00 was a red herring.

by iluvlamp on Apr 18, 2007 2:06 PM CDT reply actions  

yosts bullpen usage by LI
i almost went and calculated this myself. Greatest baseball site on the internet right now is david appelman's fangraphs.com.

Anyway, what i was going to calculate was the Leverage Index for each pitcher when they entered the game. Thankfully, i stumbled across it already calculated. Fangraphs.com has this number (gmLI) on each player's page. CoCo's is linked below.

As expected Francisco Cordero is first with 2.27

Here's the list in order, including last night's game.

coco 2.27
aquino 1.84
turnbow 1.77
shouse 1.76
wise 1.05
dessens 0.99
villanueva 0.73

This is the leverage index for when the pitcher enters the game. This basically says that Aquino is Yost's second most trusted option in the bullpen. I'm going to keep an eye on this list, i'm vastly fascinated with bullpen usage by leverage index right now. :)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Apr 18, 2007 3:00 PM CDT reply actions  

one more.
for all pitchers in baseball Aquino is now near the worst in total win probability added at -0.47

and this caused me to decide that this is the kind of stat indicative of a bad manager, cause not only do you need to fail, but you need to fail in high leverage situations. So who's going to be among the leaders in total negative WPA for '06. Yep, Derrick Turnbow, 3rd worst* in baseball among pitchers. Interestingly, there's Dusty Baker's** mess of a closer right there with Turnbow.

Let's hope Aquino is not this year's turnbow and has been relegated to only mop up duty for now, let's leave the high leverage situations to the big boys. :)

*you'll have to resort by the last column WPA
**psst. Ronny Cedeno was the worst hitter for total WPA added further indicting Baker as a horrid manager.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Apr 18, 2007 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

BP
I think BP has leverage as well, if you look for the reliever reports.  It's initially sorted by WXRL, their uber-relief stat, but you can sort by anything, and something very similar (identical?) to LI is in there.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 18, 2007 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

BP
BP's Leverage is not at all like my LI.  I dismiss their concept of Leverage in Part 2 here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/articles.shtml

by tangotiger on Apr 19, 2007 9:57 AM CDT reply actions  

<threadjack>
I was looking to order The Book on amazon, but it's only available for pre-order.  The release date is listed as March 10.  Was there some sort of delay with the new publisher, or is there a more serious problem?

Welcome to BCB.  I hope you find some time every now and again to stop by.
</threadjack>

by Marty McSuperFly on Apr 19, 2007 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

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