FanPost

Dave Bush - unlucky?

Dave Bush has BABIP of .415.  For non-geeks, that means of the balls hit in play, over %41 are hits.

Now the league average is always within a few points of .300 and most pitchers fall between .290 and .310

If someone is far above or below that, then they are either very lucky or very unlucky.

Lets look at the other stats.

K/9 is at 7.94 which may show that his 7.11 jump (from 4.95) last year was legit.
BB/9 is 1.1, also very healthy.
HR/9 is also a mere 1.1

Now I'm not a sabremetrics guru, but despite the gaudy 5.82 ERA, Bush has not pitched all that badly.  His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a healthy 3.24 meaning his ERA should be over two and a half runs lower.

Which brings us back to that pesky BABIP, the one statistic that shows just how (un)lucky a player has been.  Bush has been unlucky so far, but it will all even out in the end.