the projection systems ignore what was clearly a new level of ability for bill hall in 2005 and no doubt mix in stats before '05 that to find a mean to regress him to.

Bill Hall was a perfect candidate to exceed his projections. I think we could reasonably expect:

.275/.340/.500

i'd argue that's a pretty realistic expectation.

That's 100 points over his current OPS, i don't have any problem saying that he's, so far, underperforming by a fair margin, and not just "a little bit."

His ISO:

2005 .204
2006 .282
2007 .172

He's not hitting the ball hard enough this year, resulted in more fewer fly balls and fewer fly balls that leave the park.

If Hall had the same FB% and same HR/FB% as last year his SLG% would be at about .560, and his OPS would be about .900.

instead of using last year rates, lets just take 4 of his fly ball outs and turn them into 3 HRs and 1 double. That's the difference between his current .428 slugging and a .506 slugging.

that would also raise his batting average from his current .256 to .278.

His ISO would bump up from .172 to .228

His HR/FB% would bump up from 10.9% to 16.4% (and probably put him at about 27 for the season).

With just changes those four flyballs to 3 HRs and 1 double his numbers all fall between '05 and '06 levels which we should be able to expect from him.

It's only four swings. So you say, he's off by just a little bit... But those 4 swings work out to 12 for the duration. The .100 point difference in OPS works out to almost 20 runs over the course of the season. That's significant, that's why the HR rules. It's a power issue, i don't think Hall lost any power over the winter, so it's either the bigger ballparks his playing in lately or something to zap his power. From my eyes, it looks like he's late to the ball, that's the simplest way to retrieve power is connect with the ball earlier. The later in your swing you make contact the faster your bat will be traveling.

More HRs! More Power!
Go Brewers!