Revisiting Bill Hall
by grant76 on May 30, 2007 10:28 AM CDT
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PrintThere are a few items that I would like to look at today, challenging conventional Bill Hall wisdom.
1) Bill is trying too much to hit the opposite way.
Billy has always pulled ground balls to left and has been a spray fly ball hitter. That is also the case this year. His hitting chart shows that his past hitting patterns are still in effect
2) Bill is not walking as much.
This is true. Though if he were to walk at last year's rate he would only have 4 more walks and his OBP would be only about .010 points higher.
In fact, though his walks ans K's are down, his BB/K% is still a bit below average and largely consistent as seen here
3) Bill is grounding out more. This is very true, and this is probably affecting his slugging because his HR/FB rate has also dropped.
You can see that his FB% is down to 41% from last year's 48%. His HR's per FB is down from 19.4% to 10.9%. It is this combination of things that is killing his slugging percentage, and to a lesser extent his OBP.
134 balls in play.
55 fly balls
6 HR
Using last years percentages he would have
134 balls in play
64 fly balls
12 HR
If Hall had the same FB% and same HR/FB% as last year his SLG% would be at about .560, and his OPS would be about .900.
4) Hall was due to regress a bit.
Sadly this also appears to be true.
Last year Hall hit .270/35HR/85RBI/.899OPS
Projected Bill James .268/24HR/71RB/.815OPS
Projected CHONE .265/26HR/86RBI/.820OPS
Projected Marcel .276/23HR/73RBI/.836OPS
Projected ZiPS .268/24HR/72RBI/.830OPS
On pace 2007 .256/20HR/67RBI/.743OPS
Here is my guess. And its only a guess. The smart guys that project this stuff thought that the HR's were an aberration. The HR/FB% of 19.4% put him in company with some heavy hitters.
He was projected to keep the rest of his numbers constant (adjusted for having about 10 fewer home runs), and even have fewer walks and strikeouts. So basically he is just a little worse than projected by the experts.
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projection systems
the projection systems ignore what was clearly a new level of ability for bill hall in 2005 and no doubt mix in stats before '05 that to find a mean to regress him to.
Bill Hall was a perfect candidate to exceed his projections. I think we could reasonably expect:
.275/.340/.500
i'd argue that's a pretty realistic expectation.
That's 100 points over his current OPS, i don't have any problem saying that he's, so far, underperforming by a fair margin, and not just "a little bit."
His ISO:
2005 .204
2006 .282
2007 .172
He's not hitting the ball hard enough this year, resulted in more fewer fly balls and fewer fly balls that leave the park.
If Hall had the same FB% and same HR/FB% as last year his SLG% would be at about .560, and his OPS would be about .900.
instead of using last year rates, lets just take 4 of his fly ball outs and turn them into 3 HRs and 1 double. That's the difference between his current .428 slugging and a .506 slugging.
that would also raise his batting average from his current .256 to .278.
His ISO would bump up from .172 to .228
His HR/FB% would bump up from 10.9% to 16.4% (and probably put him at about 27 for the season).
With just changes those four flyballs to 3 HRs and 1 double his numbers all fall between '05 and '06 levels which we should be able to expect from him.
It's only four swings. So you say, he's off by just a little bit... But those 4 swings work out to 12 for the duration. The .100 point difference in OPS works out to almost 20 runs over the course of the season. That's significant, that's why the HR rules. It's a power issue, i don't think Hall lost any power over the winter, so it's either the bigger ballparks his playing in lately or something to zap his power. From my eyes, it looks like he's late to the ball, that's the simplest way to retrieve power is connect with the ball earlier. The later in your swing you make contact the faster your bat will be traveling.
More HRs! More Power!
Go Brewers!
doubles
notice he peppered that LF wall last season, not happening so far this season...
:)
more evidence
Don't think its that different.
What you are seeing (I think)is a lot of groundball doubles to left.
If you slice off what you would consider groundball/down the line doubles I think both years show that even his flyball doubles were evenly scattered.
15 of halls homers last year just made it over
real bill hall
Ok so his numbers have taken another dive
by dixieflatline on May 31, 2007 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.15.2012 at 1:03 PM CST)
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