Belated Series Preview: Pirates (13-14) at Brewers (18-10)

by Jeff Sackmann on May 4, 2007 12:01 PM CDT in Milwaukee Brewers News

Yesterday I forgot. So...let's talk about the weekend games now. I'd prefer not to talk about last night's game, except to say that I'm now endorsing a quick hook on Dave Bush. 100 pitches, six innings, whatever: if it goes well, yank him. Especially when the bullpen is fresh, which it looks like it may often be for Bush's starts.

Here are the matchups for the rest of the series:

Friday, 7:05 CT: Paul Maholm vs. Claudio Vargas
Saturday, 6:05 CT: Zach Duke vs. Jeff Suppan
Sunday, 1:05 CT: Tony Armas vs. Ben Sheets

If you go strictly by the in-season numbers, that's three easy wins, right there. Of course, Maholm and Duke are decent pitchers and have shown flashes of brilliance against the Crew. Couple that with Vargas's inconsistency and tonight's game is one to worry about. On the flip side, it's hard to be pessimistic about Suppan right now, and if we don't win on Sunday, I'll have some fundamental assumptions to rethink.

Even after last night's game, Pittsburgh is still under .500, though they are second in the division. (Kinda funny that the Brewers, Pirates, and Reds are the top three right now, huh?) As it was when we last met the Rats, their offense is still putrid. Team OBP: .293. In other words, it's like Counsellino from one through nine. What's keeping them afloat are impressive pitching performances from Tom Gorzellany and Ian Snell, neither of which we'll have to face again until some future series.

Some reading from the Rat-o-sphere for the more well-balanced among you:

Bucs Dugout thinks about Adam LaRoche's icy coldness.
Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke does the same with Salomon Torres.
Bucco Wire notes the hot start of Pittsburgh prospect Bryan Bullington. He's no Gallardo, but he could be yet another solid (and cheap) young arm to add to Duke, Snell, Maholm, and Gorzellany. Amazing that a team with so much decent pitching (that is basically free, by baseball standards!) can't have more success than the Pirates have had.

If this were a three-game series, I'd say we were all but guaranteed a win, with today's game determining whether it was a sweep. Since we're already one in the hole, I guess we're playing for the win, but more realistically expecting a split. Given how we've played the Pirates the last few years, a split is darn good enough for me.

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Another lefty, eh?

Seems like Ned has begun to place a lot of faith in matchups as he fills out the order, so I looked up the OPS for everyone against Duke, just in case Ned tries to trot someone like Counsell out there and claim that "Craig really hits this guy."

Weeks 2b .918
Hardy ss 2.127
Fielder 1b .886
Hall cf 1.148
Estrada c 1.000
Mench lf .750
Hart rf 1.270
Graffanino 3b .888

Bench
Gross .000
Gwynn Never faced
Jenkins .000
Counsell .000
Miller .000

Disclaimer - OPS is based on a ridiculously small sample size, and is really only useful as a snapshot of the matchup information Ned seems to look at. For example, there is no matchup information that would lead any of the guys I show on the bench to start tonight.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 4, 2007 1:00 PM CDT reply actions

Got it

Although this one was too easy....Ned had no choice.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 4, 2007 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions

a split

i'd have gladly taken a 7-3 homestand at the outset, and a split here plus 2 of 3 from the lowly Nats would do just that. It'd be nice to ensure the split (in my mind) by grabbing tonight's game, but we'll see.

Maybe we're in a full-fledged hitting crisis!! Only 10 hits in the last two games. Ye gods.

by Bill @ Brew Crew Ball on May 4, 2007 1:09 PM CDT reply actions

Completely agree

Last night's game was very very painful but in the big picture 7-3 is still very realistic and it is hard to complain if indeed they get to that mark on this homestand.

Also in the big picture it is looking like the division is going to come down to us and the cubs. Looking at BP postseason odds with the PECOTA boost (which is the one I think is the most accurate) either the cubs or crew win the division 86% of the time.

I know it still is early, but it isn't too early to be rooting against those cubbies. They are playing the Nats and the Rats here too so it will be an interesting 6 games.

by dixieflatline on May 4, 2007 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions

moneyball exhibit 1A

last night was a quintissential moneyball lesson...i can only hope yost was paying attention. the homers were half of the difference, and trying to be "aggressive" (aka "taking stupid chances and running into outs") on the basepaths was the other half.

by Deevud on May 4, 2007 1:32 PM CDT reply actions

I don't agree

Yea - they had some problems on the base paths but you don't want to take the aggression away.

by Grinder12000 on May 4, 2007 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions

a set in stone limit for Bush

Yes they need to set a "set in stone" limit on Bush. Because he tends to be rolling along right up to the moment he implodes. If he can get through 6 with a lead sit him down and roll the dice with the Pen.

All that being said they should have had Pittsburgh blown out by the 7th 4 runs should not have been enough to win that game for the Bucs they wasted a game there.

by WSB Chris on May 4, 2007 1:37 PM CDT reply actions

One inning

Agree on Bush. Nedley needs to realize that it's his responsibility to get the team into the 8th with the lead. While it's unlikely that C squared will be able to preserve every lead this year (although, why not?) that they inherit in the 8th, they've yet to fail yet.

Once it's a 2-1 game, Yost has to find a way to preserve the lead thru the 7th. He rolled the dice on Bush, and lost (there's an easy George W. Bush joke here, but I'll skip it).

by DC Brewer on May 4, 2007 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions

I'll knock that softball lob out of the park...

So did the American People rim shot

I have nothing more to add beyond Ned sucks, Bush shouldn't have given up those shots, and if we had a reliable 7th inning guy, it wouldn't matter.

That's not Bernie Brewer. It's Enrico Polazzo!

by hyattff2003 on May 4, 2007 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Ahem, Wise?

We do have a reliable 7th-inning guy. But unfortnately Neddly used him for two innings the previous night with a 4-0 lead over a team that was emotionally drained.

by craigholl on May 4, 2007 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Good point

He would only have to make through the 7th inning then. There has to be someone in the system who could be that 7th inning person on days when CV and Wise are not available.

by WSB Chris on May 4, 2007 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Gabe Gross?

Seriously though, at some point this season, Doug Melvin, or Mike Maddux, or Harvey Kuehn's ghost has to pull Yost aside and explain cause and effect to him. If you use our premium relievers in the wrong situation (Wise gets two innings with a 4-run lead), and as a result they're not available the next night, you don't just throw your hands up in the air and say 'what can I do?'.

by DC Brewer on May 4, 2007 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions

In the minors

You have Sarfate who I personally really like. He is again striking out more than one an inning but walking too many as well.

Cappellan has the not showing up issues and is also having some control problems.

Balfour pitched great at AA and is off to a good start at AAA. He has the experience working for him as well. I believe he hasn't worked in back to back games yet though (which is something the crew did with Wise after he came back from arm injury).

All of these guys have been starters at one time in their careers so all should be able to to pitch multiple innings if we wanted to DFA Dessens. Maybe we should make a poll :)

by dixieflatline on May 4, 2007 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Tonights game is easily

Tonights game is easily one of the most lopsided affairs this year.

While the Crew have been struggling against Lefties lately the Pirates are just plain struggling.

The two bullpens are heading in different directions. It's too bad the linemakers are starting to notice Milwaukee!

by Grinder12000 on May 4, 2007 3:26 PM CDT reply actions

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	22	15	.594	0	Won 2
Cincinnati Red Reporter	19	17	.527	2.5	Won 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	17	20	.459	5	Lost 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	16	21	.432	6	Lost 1
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	16	21	.432	6	Won 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	22	.405	7	Lost 2