The '08 Closer Poll
by sheeter on Jun 6, 2007 8:58 PM CDT
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PrintWow, Great poll Jeff; I spaced out after staring at it for about five minutes while thinking about what I wanted to see happen next year. After that I decided a poll this good needed a diary breaking down the candidates, so here's my thoughts...
CORDERO: This season has driven home how nice it is to actually have a decent bullpen, and Coco has definately been the lynchpin of the operation. However, I've never been a believer in paying mega dollars for bullpen guys, and 3/45 (or therabouts) certainly qualifies as such. It seems to me that aside from an elite few, bullpenners in general are up one year and down the next so making major financial committments to said bullpenners usually ends up being unfortunate. Given the Crew's financial status I can't see making a closer the highest paid player on our roster in any case, so Coco, sorry, but we'll be seeing you.
TURNBOW: Let me get this out there: I love THE BOW - I really do. But c'mon, are any of us prepared to see him out there in the ninth? I didn't think so.
YOVANI GALLARDO: If he's anywhere but in the rotation next year, well, unhappiness will be the best way to describe my personal aura.
DAVE BUSH: This is sort of intriguing, but somehow I just can't see him as a closer. I don't think I would do it, but I'd be really interested if the Brewers tried it.
CARLOS VILLANUEVA: Probably my favorite option, although in my heart of hearts I'd still like to see him get a real shot at starting.
JOSE CAPELLAN: At this point he's really just one more bad outing away from ME calling Doug Melvin and demanding that he be traded.
MYSTERY FA: While I'm not especially well informed on bullpen free agents-to-be, it seems unlikely to me that anyone worth installing at closer could be had at a reasonable price, so I'll rule this out.
MYSTERY MINOR LEAGUER: As the word mystery suggests, this one is tough to call but, I'm going to do it anyway. I'll rule out Manny Parra, Mike Jones, and Mark Rogers while reserving the right to change my mind if the six million dollar man lends out any arms, shoulders, elbows, etc. Dennis Sarfate I'll rule out because he couldn't crack the roster this year even as guys like Greg Aquino and Chris Spurling were sucking up spots with the big club. The two aforementioned fellows I'll exclude for obvious reasons. I don't know too much about most of the rest of the farm boys, but barring a miracle from Max St. Pierre, I'll say no to the mystery minor leaguer.
BROOKS KIESHCNICK: Hmmm- I'm thinking that saving him to close every night cuts down materially on his pinch hitting ops- and I just can't have that.
So, in conclusion, I'm going to vote for Carlos Villanueva unless Melvin and Co. pull off another ridiculous trade or waiver pickup.
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Update
I voted for Coco accidentally
by keephopealive on Jun 7, 2007 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions
regardless if it's 15 mill or not
I agree
One person I didn't put up in the poll was one Claudio Vargas. He'd also be an option worth considering. Although I think it's a fluke and not to be relied upon, his ability to get out of trouble would be better served as a late-inning relief man.
it's tough
But I think there are two things stopping the Coco-resigning from happening:
a) $12M/yr for a closer (just a wild guess) isn't a ton of money for some teams. But even for the new Attanasio Brewers, that's a hell of a lot for a relief pitcher. Especially as the kids start getting expensive, it would be prohibitive.
b) it's not Doug's style. I guess we don't know that for sure, since we haven't seen Doug run a perennial contender, but the man who's happy throwing mud (read: Mike Adams) at the wall and seeing if it sticks isn't about to give a Suppan-like deal to a closer. I don't think.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2007 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder
For Doug's style, though, I don't think that it is necessarily the Mike Adams approach. That was appropriate when we sucked. If we are perennial contenders, though, I expect he is going to be willing to pony up the cash, in certain spots. I only say that, though, because of how the Caballo deal went down. I don't know how sincere it was, but I seem to recall that we made him a pretty gigundo (and ill-advised) offer. I bet we'll do it again.
Bastard! :)
Also
Ahem
But I agree with the sentiment that the team won't spend 15% of payroll on a closer, especially when it's possible to capture lightning in a bottle off waivers (see 2005 Derrick Turnbow).
Turnbow's the poster child for why you don't usually sign relievers to multi-year deals. After 2005 most people were drooling over him as an awesome closer and now it's in vogue to have night terrors involving him and the ninth inning in some sort of intimate relationship.
I'm thinking of a number between 5 and 7
.089?!?! Wow. Imagine if he played Milwaukee a few times on the schedule?
By comparison, a couple of weeks ago in Philadelphia, Turnblownsave gave up 5 runs --- and logged 2 losses --- in a weekend, right after visiting the liberty bell and taking in a steak at Pat's (with the cheese whiz, thank you very much).
Keep in mind, though, that Coco's NEVER pitched this well throughout his career. When we liberated him from Texas, he had a 4.81 ERA and his first season in Texas saw an ERA over 5. More to the point, his career WHIP is 1.36 --- OK, but not eye-popping to say the least.
I think part of his success with the Brewers results from his switching leagues. In any event, I think signing him long-term to a contract is a mistake, not for the money it would take to keep him. His career numbers suggest that he has some regressing to the mean to do.
I just hope that when he leaves, he goes back to the AL.
coco
Throw out his first 100 IP, and he's got a
9.92 K/9
3.76 BB/9
0.46 HR/9
for his career.
His 2002-2007 FIP (~3) is better than the unanimous 2006 AL Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, and is as good as Mariano Rivera's career.
Cordero is a monster, and while he's never pitched as well as he has in his stint for Milwaukee it'd be hard to find a stretch of 50 innings for any one of the elite relievers that has been this good. And it doesn't matter, there are idiot GMs (paging Jim Hendry) that sign players to contracts based on peak performances while ignoring reasoned projections. Look for Cordero to sign a contract for 5/55. Fortunately for Brewers fans, Jim Hendry won't have his job long enough to ink that contract.
It's easy enough to create a closer from a good pitcher that it's very difficult to justify spending that kind of money. But if you compare pitchers on WPA, the best closers are as, if not more, valuable than the best starters...
No argument
I'm curious: what do you think we should do? If he'd take 5/55 to stay in Milwaukee, do you think we should offer it to him? I could see him being an elite closer for each of the next 5 years, though maybe not at his current level, but it's hard to imagine paying roughly 1/6 of our current team salary to one guy, and one who only plays every 2-3 days at that.
draft pick
I think the market has caught up to the sham that is the save, the fact that racking up 40 saves in a season doesn't have a whole lot to do with skill. Blown saves happen, just like a starting pitcher giving up 8 runs in the first three innings, it happens. But imagine if you could eliminate the blown save. That's what someone like '07 Cordero does. Eliminate the blown save. I can't find the stats but what did the brewers have last year? at least 10 blown saves. at least 10 games lost by the bullpen, convert those to wins and the brewers go to the post season with the NL Central crown.
How many Quality starts above replacement do you get out of an ace type pitcher? If it's about 10, then there is a strong argument for Cordero being worth Sheets money.
I really like what Boston did with Papelbohn. Even though they are probably wasting his talent in the bullpen he's still contributing big time to the success of that club's season.
What it comes back to though, is that you can take a good starter and get a great a great closer but you can't go the other way. A save is more valuable than a quality start, but can be acquired with less talent. So long story short...
No, I'd never pay a closer big money.
hmmm.
i think it would be smart to pay big bucks to sign him for 3 years; but not longer than that. he has won a lot of games for us this year. i think losing him would be catastrophic.
ps; carlos villy deserves a chance to start.
by engbjm06 on Jun 7, 2007 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Eh?
I hope you don't consider the inner ear thing in that, because it can be very debilitating. Does Corey Koskie's post-concussion syndrome issue show up on an x-ray?
I don't know that Cordero would sign for only 3 years. He's already 32 and I don't know that he'd have a better shot at getting a bunch of money; he may want a longer-term deal to close out his career (excuse the lame pun).
mystery minor leaguer
I suspect we'll be starting 2008 with Turnbow though...
I wouldn't pay too much for Coco....
Wickman
Kolb
Turnbow
Doug Jones
The one guy they paid was Turnbow, but I think closers in general are overrated and usually not worth the money, unless they have been doing it for years, and the club has a lot of money (Hoffman, Rivera, etc).
Having said that, it would be painful to lose Coco, because his stuff has been phenomenal this year.
Fatlos Lee
I'd say that Cordero's performance is easily worth us trading Lee...
Realize:
Waiver Claim=Pods
Pods=Lee
Lee=Cordero
..imagine how much worse we'd be if he didn't claim Pods off waivers years ago
beautiful history
by heybatterbatter on Jun 7, 2007 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Capellan, maybe
The fact that he pitched in Dominican ball last winter may have been too much. Other pitchers have done the same and got screwed up - temporarily.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
22 | 15 | .594 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
Cincinnati
|
19 | 17 | .527 | 2.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
17 | 20 | .459 | 5 | Lost 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
16 | 21 | .432 | 6 | Lost 1 |
|
Houston
|
16 | 21 | .432 | 6 | Won 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 22 | .405 | 7 | Lost 2 |
(updated 5.17.2012 at 8:23 AM CDT)
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