Is It Possible Capuano Just Isn't Very Good?

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 14, 2007 9:13 AM CDT in Statistical Analysis

I don't have the time this morning to take a really in-depth look at that question, but I think Cappy's awesome first half last year is seriously clouding our judgment. (I can't speak for the rest of you, I guess, but I know it has clouded mine.) He had a great '05, too, but has now been very mediocre for a solid year.

Thanks to the wonders of baseball-reference.com, here's a breakdown of Capuano's last full season or so:

Split     W    L     ERA     IP      BB      K       HR
Last 365  6    14    5.16    174.1   58      132     28

2 Half 06 1    8     5.17    92.1    22      62      19

July '06  1    3     5.94    36.1    6       20      9
Aug '06   1    1     2.32    31      3       28      4
Sept '06  0    4     6.39    38      13      21      6

1 Half 07 5    6     4.78    79      33      67      9

Apr '07   4    0     3.21    28      13      21      2
May '07   1    4     4.60    31.1    8       24      3
June '07  0    1     6.55    11      7       15      2
July '07  0    1     10.03   11.2    8       10      2

Basically, he had good months last August and this April. The rest has been ugly, and even including those two months, he looks like the guy we're afraid Claudio Vargas is about to turn into.

The walks, incidentally, have only been a problem lately; in the last 365 days, his walk rate has been better than it was during his solid '05 campaign. There's a degree of unluckiness in this, I think, but now that we have a solid year of below-average performance to go on, I think it's time that we face the fact that Capuano is a #4 starter at best. We can't use the "Mike Maddux will fix him" line, because it looks like Maddux did fix him, and he's gotten unfixed. We can't expect him to improve up to a still-forthcoming peak, since he's 29 and it looks like his peak may well have been two years ago.

I don't know exactly what to make of this, but if we are aggressively looking for a way to get Gallardo into the rotation, it's possible that it would be better to drop Cappy from the rotation than Bush or Vargas. Unfortunately, it's a tough call: this rotation that I thought, coming into the season, had an ace and 3 or 4 #3 starters has ended up being stacked with #4s and #5s.

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Gallardo

I understand Gallardo is young, i just dont understand why young pitchers "all" have tender arms. He pitched over 200 innings last year in the minors, so he can do it. I would think an older guy like Suppan would be more prone to injuries than a young arm like Gallardo. I lot of young guys do get hurt when they pitch a lot of inning early, but that doesn't mean they all will. I wish they would stop being so cautious because he is young. Next year he'll be in the starting rotation and I cannot believe that one year is going to make his arm that much stronger.

Can anyone out there make me feel different about this subject?

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 14, 2007 10:39 AM CDT reply actions

The research

has generally found the opposite. While young pitchers can physically throw lots of innings, their arms are still developing. Guys like Will Carroll call that age range (I'm not exactly sure what it is, but say it extends to age 26 or so) the 'injury nexus', because if you get out of it without anything really bad happening, you're probably ok until you get old. Stuff still happens after that, but not bad, career-ending stuff.

On the other hand, once you've cleared the danger zone, there's no reason you can't throw 230 innings a year.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 14, 2007 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions

Didnt they score a ton of runs for him in 05 also

I could be wrong(I often am) but I seem to remember back in 05 when he won the 18 games the team was just raking on the days he pitched. I am not a numbers guy like many of you here(I have to stop at 20 out of fingers and toes) but it seems like they just scored a ton of runs for him and bashed him to a number of wins.

The only reason I seem to remember this was Cappy seemed to give up 4 runs and win 8-4 and Sheets would give up a solo home run and lose 1-0 at least it seemed like that.

So am I even in the ball park with this thought or totally mistaken?

Fire Ned, Hire Joe Girardi

by WSB Chris on Jul 14, 2007 10:41 AM CDT reply actions

I actually did a little research

scores for his 18 wins

9-6
3-1
14-5
12-2
11-2
2-0
5-1
12-7
8-4
6-4
10-6
3-1
5-2
7-5
2-1
4-3
4-1
4-3

That is 9 games where the scored him 6 or more runs and two other where they got him 5 runs. I think you could make the argument that the offensive support really helped him to his only winning season of his career. He was not as good that season as the 18 wins makes him seem. The games go from end of the season at the top to start at the bottom so they actually started scoring him more runs as the season wore on. Also you can see a couple of games where they won 7-5 10-6 9-6 etc so they won him those games in spite of his pitching.

Fire Ned, Hire Joe Girardi

by WSB Chris on Jul 14, 2007 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions

cool

he certainly wasn't 18-wins good, but he was still pretty good -- despite those iffy games, his ERA was under 4.00. Not ace material, but he did look like he'd be a #2/#3 starter going forward.

Oh well.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 14, 2007 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions

Rotation Woes

The last paragraph on the thread is dead on. We've got Sheets and a bunch of #4 type starters. The question is what, if anything, is Melvin willing/able to do about it? Offensively, we're too reliant on the long ball to be consistant, but we score enough runs on enough nights to win the division. Our starting pitching, however, has only been good enough to play slightly less than .500 ball for the last two months. Based on Melvin's comments during the game last night, I don't think he needs to see any more from our starters to become convinced that a move needs to be made. It's obvious, given the decision made with Gallardo (whom I though threw only about 170 innings last year) that the organization is committed to not piling the work on him (or Parra) this year, so I don't think you can count on seeing either of them in the rotation for another 6 weeks, if at all. I'm getting the feeling that Melving sees 2008 as the year, rather than 2007. If things continue as they have been, we'll probably be about 3 games behind the Cubs at that point, and hanging onto the fringes of the wild card race.

I'd love to add an outfield bat I like better than Menchkins as much as the next guy, but it's obvious to me that what this team really needs is a legit #2 starter. I'd feel a lot better about the rotation AND the bullpen with Suppan/Bush/Vargas and Cappy making up the 3,4,5 and long relief roles (freeing up Villanueva for more 7th or 8th inning work) than I do with the same guys occupying the 2-5 spots and feeling like we had to go to Villanueva every time the game was on the line in the 5th,6th and 7th innings.

The problem then is that there probably isn't a starter on the market that would do more than add to the list of back of the rotation guys we already have. The Melvin I saw interviewed last night sounded like a guy resigned to making a couple of bullpen moves before the deadline to avoid an August/September collapse, but probably not anything else. That once again makes me suspect that even if they weren't already looking to 2008 and 2009 rather than hoping they can find a guy to put them deep into the playoffs this year, the market is such that they'll end up biding their time and hoping they can sneak into the playoffs this season.

Ah, but what the hell do I know?

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 14, 2007 12:09 PM CDT reply actions

I think you're right...but

...but I'd be leery of putting too much stock in the "wait until next year" train of thought (see Cubs, Chicago), and I hope Melvin is too. I'm assuming this is the last year we'll have the NL's best closer, and we're only one injury to Fielder to being a very vulnerable team in 2008 (which, btw, I think will likely be Sheets's last in a Brewer uniform).

I'm all for continuing to restock the team and making the Brewers a powerhouse for years to come. However, we're past the halfway point and in first place with a 3 1/2 game lead. There's a fine line to walk between winning now and winning down the line, and we need to walk it. The Cream City Crushers may be projected to peak in 2008 or 2009, but a lot can happen between now and then, and we're in first place now. If a deal can be made for a Buehrle or someone similar, I'd have to think long and hard about passing it up.

We're not at our peak yet, that's for sure, and there are quite a few players we could stand to jettison and replace with more productive ones. But there's something to be said for a bird in the hand. Matt Wise's salad tongs could attack Fielder in the offseason (admittedly, not likely), Ryan Braun could go all Ricky Williams on us, Corey Hart could injure himself in a shaving accident, and JJ Hardy could think "Hey, I'm JJ Hardy" and break a collarbone reaching to the top shelf for a box of Pop Tarts. If we were in third place and struggling for a .500 season, I'd think, sure, let's try to avoid a late-season collapse, but acknowledge that a playoff appearance isn't likely, and get ready to play to win next season. We're in first, though, and we're better than the rest of the division: we should keep an eye to next season, but figure out how to win in 2007.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 14, 2007 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions

CV to the rotation?

If Cappy et al continue to struggle as they have, at what point do we consider moving Carlos back to the rotation? Aside from last night, he has been stellar from the pen, but last year he showed that he could go through the opposing lineup at least twice without melting down.

It might take a few starts to stretch him out, but where's the harm in having him start every fifth day and go 4 or so innings, then bring in Gallardo for 2 or 3? We do this until Carlos can go at least 6. We get our two best young pitchers on a regular working schedule (while limiting Gallardo's innings) and give ourselves a strong shot to win on those nights.

As I see it, the only downside is that we would need to find another guy to fill Carlos's current role of saving our bacon in the 5th/6th inning. But, maybe Cappy or Vargas (whoever gets sent to the pen) would actually work in that role?

by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 14, 2007 1:58 PM CDT reply actions

CV to the rotation?

I can't imagine CV being more valuable as a starter than he is as a reliever. Obviously it's a possibility, but I think he's been more valuable as a guy you can go to 3 times a week than once every 5 days. Now at some point, if the starting pitching gets bad enough, CV's value in the pen diminishes because too many games are slipping away before you get to him, but I don't think we're there yet. Hopefully Bush will continue his recent surge, Suppan will have his standard 2nd half and we won't get to the point where pulling CV out of the pen turns out to be necessary.

Roguejim, you just spelled out the 2nd half of the argument that's been playing out in my head for the last couple of weeks...

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 14, 2007 4:21 PM CDT reply actions

Watching Oswalt walk Cubs...

... when the Astros are already down 2 in the 5th is only slightly less frustrating that watching Capuano fall apart the moment he gets a lead.

Oy. Make that Cubs up 4 in the 5th. Stinkin' Cubs.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 14, 2007 4:24 PM CDT reply actions

griswald's rotation

sheets, gallardo, villenueva, parra, bush.

melvin needs to make a deal for a sp.

YoGanna win with Gallardo on the mound.

by Griswald on Jul 14, 2007 4:25 PM CDT reply actions

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