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Turnbow Splits - Days of Rest

On days when Turnbow has had at least a day of rest:

33 games
30 innings
19 hits
7 ER
13 BB
37 K
0 HR
2.10 ERA

On days when Turnbow has had no rest:

19 games
16 innings
16 hits
15 ER
9 BB
21 K
4 HR
8.44 ERA

Ned talked about getting Linebrink to get some rest for Turnbow.  The numbers seem to back up the theory that Turnbow pitches better with at least a day off between appearances.

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Interesting
there are a fair number of pitchers whose splits are like this, and I'm always surprised when managers don't take advantage of that knowledge.  It's not like we don't have other options in the pen.
Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 30, 2007 10:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

interestingly...
his K and BB rates aren't much different...Walks are a bit higher without rest, but I don't think it's statistically significant given the low number of innings. But he's getting hit much harder (at least I suspect he's also giving up more doubles, not just more homers).

by Zeyes on Jul 30, 2007 12:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

it's true
of the team in general. nearly identical HR, K, BB rates, but batting average on balls in play is .050 points higher on the road leading to hit rates of 8 H/9 at home and 10 H/9 away.

OPS against is .676 vs. .782 respectively.

So who's cheating at home against us? First I looked at batting average on balls in play against for the different ballparks. i only concerned myself with the NL central, record is included.

3-3 wrigley, .352
2-4 riverfront, .357
2-1 enron, .329
1-3 pnc, .272
2-4 busch, .364

Woah! In the NL central this year teams hit better at home, in '07 so far home team as a BABIP of .299 and away is .295

I'm looking at BABIP because what i'm looking for is something that would show up as good luck, and that is stealing signs. You are going to hit the ball harder, and more balls in play will fall in for hits if you know the pitch coming, and in the NL central this year, nearly everyone is doing much better against the brewers than would be expected. particularly st. louis, cincinatti, and chicago.

To find out if I'm on to something i look at home & away splits for each of these teams. If they are stealing signs at home it should show up in the splits. In the NL this year teams are +.024 OPS and +.004 BABIP at home. Here's how the NL Central stacks up:

cubs @ wrigley OPS +.016, BABIP +.004
reds @ riverfront OPS +.086, BABIP +.008
astros @ enron OPS +.032, BABIP +.011
pirates @ pnc OPS +.020, BABIP +.019
cardinals @ busch OPS +.009, BABIP +.015

aside from the reds @ home (nearly double their HR rate at home versus the road!) everything looks pretty acceptable.

if teams are stealing signs, it's not against everyone, or not showing up here in the stats i'm looking at.

I looked at one more thing, the late & close split, but the samples get muddied and small enough to have too much noise, interestingly though the cardinals and the cubs both had significantly more "luck" (their highest babip) late & close than the other NL central teams.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 30, 2007 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

good stuff
thanks for looking all of that up and crunching the numbers.
Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 30, 2007 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One idea
Does the fact that pitching on back-to-back days generally indicates he's facing the same team repeatedly have anything to do with his struggles? It seems like it might have minimal impact at most, but if a team sees his stuff one day, they might be better prepared (timing, etc.) for the rest of the series. Just a thought.
Joe Borchard 2007 watch: 198 PA, 59 K, 56 TB, .200/.293/.320
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Jul 30, 2007 12:37 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Some numbers
Days when Turnbow is facing a team for the second or third time in a single series:

21 G
17 IP
18 H
16 R, 16 ER
10 BB
24 K
3 HR
1 HBP
8.47 ERA
4.61 FIP

Days when Turnbow is facing a team for the first time in a series:

31 G
29 IP
17 H
6 R, 6 ER
12 BB
34 K
1 HR
1 HBP
1.86 ERA
2.65 FIP

Part of that goes hand in hand with the days rest split, though, too. Six times this year he's faced a team for the second (or third) time in a series with a day's rest under his belt and he's put up a 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HBP, 3.60 ERA line, which kind of splits the difference. Of course, six games isn't very much in the grand scheme of things.

Joe Borchard 2007 watch: 198 PA, 59 K, 56 TB, .200/.293/.320
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Jul 30, 2007 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks!
interesting as always.  you guys continue to raise the level of the discourse here, and I appreciate it.
Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 30, 2007 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

D-backs
You will almost never see the D-Backs toss Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon back to back days.  If Lyon pitched the day before and they need a 8th inning guy, the play goes to Lyon.  I'm hoping they start using Turnbow and Linebrink as the 8th inning tandem.

by MunichBrats on Jul 30, 2007 1:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting
I've noticed that often when Turnbow comes out after a couple days rest he usually has one of his lights out performances, interesting to see the splits to back that up.

by stevie ray Braun on Jul 30, 2007 3:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

good to know...
This evidence will give us yet another reason to get upset with Nedly and his bullpen usage...  I wonder how the rest of our top relievers fare?

I also wonder, if it is sign of D-Bow (and perhaps others?) tiring as the season moves along?

by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 30, 2007 4:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff
Thanks for looking up the splits...how do we get this information to Ned? I hope he is smart enough to start using a combination of Linebrink & Turnbow in the 8th. He seems to enjoy having only one person in that role. Both players have pitched a lot of innings this year already & it would be nice to give them days off between games. Linebrink's time off for his child birth will hopefully rejuvenate him for the rest of the year.
Watching Yovani pitch probably compares to driving a Lamborghini Gallardo.

by TAPmoney on Jul 30, 2007 4:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

you know...
I wouldn't be surprised if the info HAS gotten to ned.  I chatted with Dave Lawson (the Brewers stat guy) a couple of times last year, and he told me one of his jobs is to send a weekly report to Ned.  He wasn't all that specific, but I think something like this would fit into his purview.
Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 30, 2007 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No excuse
If Ned Yost does indeed have access to these splits and takes them seriously, then other than outright desparation, what reason would he have for using Turnbow on back to back nights versus a fresher (Villy, Linebrick, Wise) arm?  I hope Linebrick is a difference maker in the pen.  Lord knows we need one.

by Jwillie67 on Jul 30, 2007 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

because
it's just 16 innings.

11 times on zero days rest turnbow has posted a zero, and once on back to back days of zero days rest.

i'm, as the otherside derisively likes call it, a stathead. but, as the otherside is wont to overstate, the stats don't always paint the whole picture.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 31, 2007 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

In Ned's Defense
Maybe he is perfectly aware of this split and it's part of the reason the Brewers acquired Linebrink.  Linebrink/Turnbow could split the eigth-inning job so they can both stay rested.  

We haven't gotten a chance to see if this will happen yet though because last weekend was so crowded with the double header and all.  No situation to rest Turnbow so far since Linebrink's been here, but Linebrink could take over part of that 8th inning role from now on.

by stevie ray Braun on Jul 30, 2007 7:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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