Remaining games - prediction

by Grinder12000 on Jul 30, 2007 8:56 AM CDT Comment 42 comments

I took all the games the Brewers play Home and road and all the games the Cubs play Home/Road.

H% = Home winning pct
R% = Road winning pct

Then using this formula
((H%*H%)/((H%*H%)+(R%*R%)))for each series giving me how many wins each team would have ever series.

Yea yea - teams change and blah blah but just hang on for a second.

The Brewers will be
16.8 - 11.2 at home and 11.8 - 15.2 on the road
The Cubs will be
16.4 - 13.6 at home and 14.3 - 14.7 on the road

Adding those numbers to the current standings the final outcome is

Cubs 85.7 - 76.3
Brews 85.6 - 76.4

SO - looks like we're in for a tight race.

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One thing I forgot

The Crew play the Cubs 3 games in Chicago. We SHOULD win 1.3 of those 3 games.

Win two and we win the division!

by Grinder12000 on Jul 30, 2007 8:59 AM CDT reply actions

One thing vs. the Cubs

The Cubs have a lot of Left Handed pitchers and the Brewers have several Lefty-killers. Hopefully the two will come into contact during the late August series.

by drezdn on Jul 30, 2007 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions

If your 30- or 60-day trend continues

that mean the Cubs are the best team in baseball. The quality of the team is good, but not that good. Piniella outburst or no, you can't throw out a month or two of data just to support the conclusion you'd like to reach.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 30, 2007 10:46 AM CDT reply actions

If you truly compare the two teams...

especially based on talent alone, the brewers are better. Now i believe the cubs have a better coach and he makes up some of the difference, but to say that the race won't even be close is stupid. Teams get hot and teams get cold, but as of right now the brewers have the better record, so you really have no evidence that the race won't even be close.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 30, 2007 11:56 AM CDT reply actions

freaking out

OK, who here thinks that from games 54-103 the cubs have overperformed? raise your hand. they were 33-17, best in the NL.

Ok, who here thinks that from games 54-103 the Brewers have underperformed? raise your hand. they were 28-22, second best in the NL.

Now, over the next 50 games, what is more likely?

The cubs continue to play .660 ball and the brewers continue to play .560 ball? (the cub fan perspective)

the cubs decline from .660 (even just a tiny bit) the brewers improve on .560?

I think grinder is right, of course not with his method, it never makes sense to make a prediction without regressing it. but i think we'll see a tight race nonetheless. the cubs have played phenomenal baseball keeping it up would be phenomenal squared... and what is that really? i think the brewers have survived or will soon have survived another downturn and can expect to heat up a little.

Let's go Brewers!!

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 30, 2007 11:58 AM CDT reply actions

Also

That streak the cubs have gone on was completed with mediocre offense and phenomenal pitching/defense. Only 188 runs allowed over those 50 games.

In July the team FIP was about 4.2. Great luck stats of LOB%, HR/FB% and BABIP all contributed to their excellent pitching success. To sustain that .660 play, they are going to need their good luck to continue, or they are going to need to start walking fewer and striking out more all while continuing to allow a very small number of HRs.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 30, 2007 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions

The problem with THAT thinking

is your numbers are too small. In reality it takes 265 baseball games to take luck out of the picture. 162 games is not even enough to see who the best team is.

Why 60 days??? That seems like a convenient number yet, totally meaningless.

The Brewers were also playing around with lineups and so forth. Makes no difference, you have to take the year as a whole, not some point in the season that seems to make one side better.

I suppose you could look at the last 5 games then?

by Grinder12000 on Jul 30, 2007 12:01 PM CDT reply actions

One more thing about the Cubs

No depth. How would the Cubs do if their #1 starter went down, their CF wreaks his ankle 2B has wrist problems.

I have always thought the Cubs and the Brewers were pretty even BUT, the Brewers have back-ups and the Cubs did not.

I feel the Brewers will be in better health down the stretch because they actually rest players (as opposed to them getting fined and penalized I guess) LOL

One more thought $$ per win! I think we are doing it MUCH cheaper then the Cubs who are forced to BUY their wins instead of earning them.

by Grinder12000 on Jul 30, 2007 12:26 PM CDT reply actions

for the nth time

focus on recent history all you want, but 30 games or 60 games does not a sufficient sample make. it must be fun to be rooting for a team that has been so successful in that stretch, but it doesn't matter whether the team is different, fired up, or just plain lucky ... 60 games isn't enough to base conclusions on. Jacob did a good job in another thread of showing why that recent showing is in fact based on an untenable amount of good luck.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 30, 2007 1:26 PM CDT reply actions

Huh?

.500 is not out of the question, is it? C'mon now. They just went 3-7.

That is, quite possibly, the most ignorant comment to base a prediction on that I've read all season. If that sort of thing is okay, then I might as well say the Cubs may well play .333 ball the rest of way because they lost 4 of 5 at one point in June.

Joe Borchard 2007 watch: 198 PA, 59 K, 56 TB, .200/.293/.320
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Jul 30, 2007 1:33 PM CDT reply actions

it's not a matter of opinion

it's a matter of mathematics. 60 games is not enough. It's as simple as that.

And "great teams attract luck" is BS. That, unfortunately, is not a matter of opinion either.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 30, 2007 1:35 PM CDT reply actions

Just looking at the last ten games

The Phillies (8-2 or .800) are going to decimate the Cubs (6-4).

by drezdn on Jul 30, 2007 1:43 PM CDT reply actions

What 90 miles south is saying

is that the Cubs are a .660 team and one of the best teams in the history of baseball, based on the last 60 games.

I can totally understand his statements and he pretty much sounds like ALL baseball fanatics when there team is playing over their head.

I do not doubt he honestly thinks the Cubs are THAT good.

I also do not honestly think the Brewers were that good when THEY were hot.

The Los Alamos National Laboratory in an article called Physical Review E states that 265 games are needed to weed out "luck" in baseball and a World Series NEEDS to have at least 11 games to account for "luck" between two teams.

With that said the Cubs last 60 games they have played very well and have been pretty lucky. You can not take that away.

I did not start this to say WHO was better, Brewers or Cubs. Unless you play 265 games and have a good lead, we will actually never know.

All I was saying is that the race LOOKS like it will be close with one team not showing it is VERY superior over thee other.

HOWEVER - I will say that who ever comes out on top better have a lot of luck because they will be the inferior team in the playoffs.

by Grinder12000 on Jul 30, 2007 1:55 PM CDT reply actions

90 miles south

you should learn how to use the "reply to this" link. it's a technique us smart people use to lend more coherence to the thread.

What is your prediction for the final win totals for the cubs and the brewers and are you willing to put some money on it?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 30, 2007 1:56 PM CDT reply actions

Well, internet betting is illegal

But I personally don't care. Feel free to make hypothetical bets that can either stay hypothetical or become more concrete via e-mail.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 30, 2007 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions

bet

i'm not proposing that anyone bet anything.

i'm wondering if you care to put some specifics on what you think will happen for the rest of the season.

what will be the specific win totals for the brewers and the cubs? and are you confident enough in those guesses that you'd put money on them?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 30, 2007 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Look at it this way, 90ms

Since the beginning of July, Alfonso Soriano has hit .269/.280/.442 with 3 HR. Is he going to keep that up for the rest of the season? Why or why not?

From May 11 to July 4, Rich Hill went 1-5 with a 5.20 ERA. Was it reasonable to think that's what he would do for the rest of the season? Why or why not?

Since the start of June, Jason Marquis has a 5.96 ERA. Is he going to keep that up - why or why not?

The point is, just as individual player performances fluctuate over the course of a season, so too do team overall performances. That's why you can't choose two months, whether they are the first two months or the last two months or the middle two months, to represent the season. Yes, the Cubs have done better these past two months, but that has minimal predictive power over the final two.

Joe Borchard 2007 watch: 198 PA, 59 K, 56 TB, .200/.293/.320
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Jul 30, 2007 1:57 PM CDT reply actions

well, you know

Only positive trends will continue indefinitely into the future. Negative trends will be over before they're even noticed. That's just how it works in Cub-land. ;)

by Zeyes on Jul 30, 2007 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Let's get this straight

You're saying that with 12% turnover of the roster (well, not even that since Theriot was there all along), the Cubs turned the whole season around. It's not because some players are on hot streaks that they didn't have the first two months? What makes each of those players more likely to perform at their level of the past two months than at their level of the first two months or even their career?

Joe Borchard 2007 watch: 198 PA, 59 K, 56 TB, .200/.293/.320
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Jul 30, 2007 2:01 PM CDT reply actions

Good point TheJay

The same with you can only put a minimal predictive power on using the entire year. IT was just a fun little number crunch to see HOW a team would do if they continued playing the last 50 games as they played the first 100.

by Grinder12000 on Jul 30, 2007 2:03 PM CDT reply actions

what 90MS is saying

is that in the last 20 games the top four Cub Starters have a combined ERA of under 2.00 and he expects that to continue for the next 55 games.

by Grinder12000 on Jul 30, 2007 3:54 PM CDT reply actions

more worried

I"M not so much worried about the cubs as I am about the cincinnati Reds like teams that the brewers certainly seem to be able to play DOWN to there level. For example last weekend.

Tim Bring back the chalet Brewing history in milwaukee. Miller park looks to stale like bad PBR Bring back old logo, not mitt!!!

by storminTAZZ on Jul 31, 2007 10:17 AM CDT reply actions

Records

Since all of you aren't overly concerned with the last 50 games, how about the last 73? Remember the Brewers with the torrid start? Check out these numbers:

Since May 10th
Brewers 24-10 (.706)
Cubs 16-16 (.500)

August 1st
Brewers 58-49 (.542)
Cubs 56-49 (.533)

Difference
Brewers 34-39 (.466)
Cubs 40-33 (.548)

Since their hot start the Brew Crew has played under .500 ball. That is a very good indicator on how good they actually are, that is almost half a season of data there. But, in the end, let the best team win! GO CUBS!

by cubs4life on Aug 1, 2007 3:22 AM CDT reply actions

selective endpoints

can y'all stop it? Why 73 and not 83 or 78 or 106 or 92? If you think the Cubs are better, fine, but stop it with the specious math to try to "prove it."

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 1, 2007 6:09 AM CDT up reply actions

Just the fact

that we've only played 34 games since May 10th does not bode well.

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Aug 1, 2007 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions

where's

your prediction?

what won't you answer my question?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 1, 2007 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions

Prince may not be able to catch but...

he sure can hit a sh#tload of home runs. Thats something you cant say about your 1st basemen.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Aug 1, 2007 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions

Really!!!!

I had no idea that d-lee hit 46 homers, sarcasm. However this was an anomoly, cause before then, his best year he hit 32 homers. That puts him in the company of adam laroche in terms of power, not Albert Pujols. Dont get me wrong though, D-Lee is probably the only cub i like, but ill take 45 homers and 130 rbi's with a .280 avg. over .326 and 20 hrs. Prince has 10 errors to lee's 3, seven errors doesn't make up for a potential 25 homer difference.

The best part about this is that Ryan braun has been played almost 2 months less than d-lee and already has better numbers.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Aug 1, 2007 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions

thank you

And thank you for the reasonable projection, as a cubs fan your realism there surprised me. i like it.

BREWERS
Ok, so you are saying, despite .466 from May 10th, the brewers will play .527 from here on out. That's a huge difference. You've essentially entirely discounted the play from may 10th. (what you are referring to as "trends" and what we are referring to as selective sampling.)

You cannot reconcile that. That is the equivalent of talking out of both sides of your mouth.

CUBS
Now, you are saying that the cubs, after playing .660 ball since June 3rd will finish the season playing .579 ball. That is also a huge difference.
So while you are on one hand saying "60 days is a great sample" you are also saying, but the Cubs are not that good, or better won't play that good for the rest of the year.

RESULTS
You've regressed the performances of both clubs back to the mean. That's a very responsible way to make a prediction. But it doesn't match up with your other posts, which are the ones we had problems with. Bad means, good ends.

PREDICTION

Brewers 87-75
Cubs 83-79

At the beginning of July i predicted a regression for the cubs, their luck stats where way out of whack on both sides of the ball... Well, i was dead wrong, they got even luckier. So now, i'm looking at all this luck that needs to be accounted for, like a rubber band stretched way too thin it'll snap back very hard and the Cubs, almost BECAUSE they are playing .660 will finish the season 27-30.

The brewers i think are on cruise control and will finish a solid 29-26, like you guessed.

Should be a great pennant race. Go Brewers!

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 1, 2007 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions

The point Jeff and others are trying to make,

but that you seem to be oblivious to, is that it doesn't really matter if the Brewers were stellar for one month and mediocre for three and the Cubs were awful for two months and good for two. What matters is we all started the season tied for first place, and the Cubs and Brewers are still essentially tied. After 265 games, we may get a sense of which team is ACTUALLY better, but since that won't happen this season, we will both just have to rely on hot streaks to take the division.

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Aug 1, 2007 8:22 AM CDT reply actions

Clearly,

you must be ignoring the last 107 games, in which the Brewers are 1 game better than the Cubs. Wouldn't your logic dictate that using the last 107 games is even more accurate than arbitrarily using the last 73? Hmmm...

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Aug 1, 2007 8:24 AM CDT reply actions

put it on repeat

practically spam. why would you type all that up? you offered no new information.

seriously, if you are so wise, what is your prediction for the win totals for the brewers and the cubs?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 1, 2007 9:37 AM CDT reply actions

Kerry who?

We have Joe Dillon! I'd like to see you take the division now.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 1, 2007 9:39 AM CDT reply actions

Even more relevant

Based on the most recent one game trend, both the Brewers and Cubs appear primed to win out their respective seasons. Looks like a tie! Should be exciting!

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Aug 1, 2007 9:46 AM CDT reply actions

THIS IS ALL THAT MATTERS

The past games dont matter at all. We have a one game lead so we have a "little" more wiggle room than the cubs. Who cares how we started or how the cubs have been playing. The fact is, all you cub fans that come on here with your great predictions are only making yourselves look like idiots. Nobody knows what will happen, cubs may stay hot, brewers may get hot or vice versa. Nobody will know. THE PAST MAKES NO DIFFERENCE. Look at how well Cincy is playing, but nobody is talking about them winning the division. Ultimately, the season starts now, the brewers have more talent, the cubs have more experience. Lets see what will make up the difference.

Im sick of reading this prediction crap from cub fans and please stop making the point that Kerry wood is back, so the cubs are ready to dominate. Even with Kerry wood healthy, he still has no control, perfect for a guy in the bullpen.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Aug 1, 2007 10:11 AM CDT reply actions

Why do Cub fans love Wood so much?

He had a great year in 2003 the year he reached is highest total of wins at 14. Other than that and one great 1 hitter, he's been ok.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Aug 1, 2007 10:29 AM CDT reply actions

i like wood too

i wouldn't say he has/had a fragile body though. He was a pretty thick dude who had violent mechanics and was horribly mistreated. prior was the fragile one who had great mechanics and was horribly mistreated.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 1, 2007 10:55 AM CDT reply actions

suppan

the same could be said about him last year for the cards.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Aug 1, 2007 10:58 AM CDT reply actions

I thought you were leaving.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 1, 2007 12:01 PM CDT reply actions

Some objective math

Ok, time to end this once and for all with some complex mathematical predictions to see which team truly is better. You can't take the whole season into account because of the Brewers' hot start, of course, so if I just crunch the numbers for a more selective sample...

Over the last 2 days:

Cubs
1-1 (.500)

Brewers
1-0 (1.000)

Obviously, the Brewers are twice as good as the Cubs, case closed.

by stevie ray Braun on Aug 1, 2007 2:58 PM CDT reply actions

it's settled then

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Aug 1, 2007 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't think

I don't think either team will win another game this year - the trend looks pretty bad the last one day!

by Grinder12000 on Aug 3, 2007 11:22 AM CDT reply actions

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