FanPost

Series preview: Brewers @ Astros

It has been a while since I posted a series preview so here goes.

The Crew clinging to a slim 1/2 game lead in the division head to Houston for a three game set with the Astros. The Brewers are 5th in the league in runs scored and 7th in runs allowed.  The Astros are 9th in runs scored and 4th in runs allowed.

The Brewers send Bush, Suppan, and Vargas to the mound this weekend against Jennings, Rodriguez, and Williams.  You already know about the Brewer's three so I will focus on the Astros pitchers here.

Jason Jennings has an eye popping 6.11 ERA but that is actually a bit misleading.  He is currently on pace to set career marks for K/9, BB/9 and K/BB yet a career worst for ERA.  This is his first year at Minute Maid but he came from Colorado so that isn't causing the trouble.  This biggest culprit is his BABIP causing his FIP to be a much better, though still not good, 4.90.  The Astros have been a pretty poor defensive team this year though (you can check my blog if you want some numbers on this) so that is likely to continue.  Also, he has been super flyball friendly this year with a 0.88 GB/FB ratio.  This is not in line at all with his career numbers.  The Brewers as a team hit a ton of flyballs so this should really work in our favor.

Wandy Rodriguez throws Saturday instead of Matt Albers who is having his turn skipped in the rotation.  The way Albers is pitching this clearly looks like a good move by old scrap iron in what is the most important series for the Astros of the year.  Rodriguez pitched very well in his last game against the Cubs and, like Jennings, should have a lower ERA than his 4.50 if not for the poor Astros defense (FIP of 3.99).  Wandy is a southpaw though and the Brewer's hitters seem to love to hit against lefties.  On the other hand, Rodriguez is having sort of a mini Ben Sheets year with 116 K's and just 38 BB in 132.0 IP.  This doesn't seem to bode well for the Crew.  If I were Ned I would think about playing Damian Miller Saturday night and have Estrada behind the plate Sunday when Woody Williams takes the mound.

Williams is coming to the end of a long, but not stellar, career.  He sports a 5.21 and a FIP slightly worse at 5.34.  Williams is only striking out 4.7 per 9 and again is a flyball pitcher with a 0.89 GB/FB ratio.  With the way Vargas has been throwing lately I am hoping my name gets drawn in the pays big 21 contest on Sunday.

With Hunter Pence still on the DL the Astros Offense has become very dependent on El Caballo who is putting up another strong season. Lance Berkman has become a shell of what he once was though still an above average hitter.  Mike Lamb and Luke Scott are having pretty good years but that doesn't offset the black holes in the lineup that are Craig Biggio, Brad Ausmus, and Jason Lane who has taken over for Pence in center.  With so many sinkholes the Brewer pitchers need to not get beat by Carlos Lee and attack the bottom (and leadoff spot) in the Astros lineup.

This series is sandwiched by two off days for the Brewers so the bullpen should finally be rested.  With the off day on Monday Ned should be willing to burn the pen this series especially in close games.  With eight guys in the pen it might be tempting to use one of the lesser relievers in a tie game or down by a run in the 7th.  Ned should avoid this and be willing to throw Turnbow or even Cordero in a non-save situation.

ps.  I have finally decided to stop boring everyone with my general stats post and setup a blog where I am going to post that stuff.  I am still going to post Brewer related stuff here but general stats posts can be found at my new blog.

UPDATE: Let's move this to the front page. Series previews and the front page go together like peanut butter and bananas. --- roguejim