1st inning runs

by grobbins on Aug 15, 2007 8:43 AM CDT Comment 6 comments

I am not really the statistician of this site, so I decided that I would keep my analysis simple, after looking at the list the theJay posted on the game thread, I wondered what teams do the highest percentage of their scoring in the firrst inning to see if this would explain how inexcusably the brewers seem to get on pitchers early and then never again. So here is my simple analysis:

team    1st total    percentage
CHC    85    543    15.65377532
PIT    74    504    14.68253968
FLA    84    579    14.50777202
MIL    81    568    14.26056338
SF    72    506    14.22924901
SD    73    515    14.17475728
ATL    81    591    13.70558376
PHI    87    643    13.53032659
ARI    65    507    12.82051282
NYM    70    555    12.61261261
CIN    68    553    12.2965642
COL    73    601    12.14642263
HOU    61    543    11.23388582
LAD    55    521    10.55662188
WAS    43    465    9.247311828
STL    40    517    7.736943907

Any comments? Other ways to analyze?

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Interesting

The Brewers actually score more runs in the 6th inning than in the 1st, 87 to 81. That kind of makes sense, even if it's contrary to the perception of the team slacking off, because starters are getting tired then and most managers bring in scrub relievers at that point.

This is kind of interesting, too. It's the team split against opposing starters each time through the order.

vs. SP, 1st: .247/.306/.420
vs. SP, 2nd: .279/.341/.463
vs. SP, 3rd: .284/.355/.513

That makes sense, too. You get to see him a couple times, you know what he's got that night and he's getting tired. It's odd that in the first inning they score with their lowest split but when they hit better they don't score as well, I think.

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by TheJay on Aug 15, 2007 10:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm....

I would be more interested in seeing what team in the majors has lost the most games when at some point they held a lead of 2 runs or more. The Brewers have had at least 8 or so in the past month. Are in the average over the coarse of a seaon? Or are we just horrible at keeping a lead? I remember in the first two months, when we got a lead we won like 90% of the time.

by trl1020 on Aug 15, 2007 10:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about the 2+ R lead, but...

Baseball-Reference has the Brewers with 29 blown leads leading to losses on the year. Conversely, they have 26 comeback wins. That -3 differential is the same as the Tigers' and the Padres' and better than the Cubs' (-8), not that I think it means a whole lot. Texas has 12 more comeback wins than blown leads, to give one example of how you can't judge a team's quality on that. The Royals are +7.

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by TheJay on Aug 15, 2007 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've noticed the same thing

It has come to the point where I wasn't even surprised during the game last night...which is a bad sign. The other question I have is how much of our run production over the last 2 months has come from braun and fielder...it seems they are carrying a ridiculous amouny of the scoring load.

With Braun and Gallrado up, is it time for LaPorta to join the team?

by grobbins on Aug 15, 2007 10:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Since July 1

By my count, Braun and Fielder have plated 58 of the team's 169 runs, or 34.3%. That seems a little high but not astronomical.

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by TheJay on Aug 15, 2007 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

quote

"it seems they are carrying a ridiculous amouny of the scoring load."

That is because they are. Fielder leads the team with 29.4 runs above position. Braun is second with 28.3. Hart is third with 7.7. You can see the full list here.

Still, I just don't think the offense is the problem. Sure they could be doing better but the pitching, particularly the starters, have been terrible lately. We can live with Fielder and Braun doing the heavy lifting but we need someone other than Gallardo to pick up a quality start every now and again.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 15, 2007 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs