FanPost

POOR PITCHING: The Catcher's Fault?

OK... SO I FIXED MY NUMBERS!!!

I've been wondering, as most of you probably have been, what's going on with our pitching?  Cappy can't win a game, Vargas couldn't even get out of the 1st inning last start, and even YoGa has been very inconsistent lately. What's up? Or as I've been saying nearly every game, What the F---?

Someone suggested to me the other day, that it may be Estrada's fault, so I thought I'd look for a correlation. Maybe it is Estrada calling poor games, maybe he's calling for pitches that are asking for hitters to knock it out. I'm not a stats guy. I don't know all the different equations and all that. But this is what I found for the 2nd half of the season.

2007 Second Half Schedule
Jul. '07     OPPONENT     RESULT     SP    ER    IP    SP's ERA    CATCHER
Fri. 13     Colorado     L 10-6     Capuano     5    3    15.00    Estrada
Sat. 14     Colorado     W 2-1     Sheets    1    3.1    2.70    Estrada
Sun. 15     Colorado     W 4-3      Suppan      2    6    3.00    Miller
Mon. 16     Arizona     W 4-3      Bush    3    6    4.50    Estrada
Tue. 17     Arizona     W 3-2      Vargas    3    5    3.60    Estrada
Wed. 18     Arizona     L 5-2      Capuano     2    7    2.57    Miller
Thu. 19     Arizona     W 10-1    Gallardo    0    6    0.00    Estrada
Fri. 20     San Francisco     L 8-4      Suppan      3    5    5.40    Miller
Sat. 21     San Francisco     L 8-0      Bush    3    6    4.50    Estrada
Sun. 22     San Francisco     W 7-5      Vargas    3    6    4.50    Estrada
Mon. 23     at Cincinnati     L 2-1      Capuano     1    8    1.13    Estrada
Tue. 24     at Cincinnati     W 5-3      Gallardo    1    6.2    1.35    Miller
Wed. 25     at Cincinnati     L 7-3      Suppan      5    5    9.00    Miller
Thu. 26     at Cincinnati     L 6-5      Bush    4    5.1    6.76    Miller
Fri. 27     at St. Louis     W 12-2      Vargas    2    8    2.25    Estrada
Sat. 28     at St. Louis     L 7-6      Parra    1    6    1.50    Miller
Sat. 28     at St. Louis     L 5-2      Capuano     4    6.1    5.69    Estrada
Sun. 29     at St. Louis     L 9-5      Gallardo    4    5    7.20    Estrada
Tue. 31     NY Mets     W 4-2      Suppan      2    6.1    2.84    Miller

Aug. '07     OPPONENT     RESULT     SP    ER    IP    SP's ERs    CATCHER
Wed. 1     NY Mets     L 8-5      Vargas    7    2.2    23.68    Estrada
Thu. 2     NY Mets     L 12-4      Capuano     5    6    7.50    Estrada
Fri. 3     Philadelphia     W 2-1      Gallardo    1    6.2    1.35    Estrada
Sat. 4     Philadelphia     W 6-5      Bush    5    5    9.00    Estrada
Sun. 5     Philadelphia     L 8-6      Suppan      1    5.2    1.73    Miller
Mon. 6     at Colorado     L 6-2      Vargas    6    7    7.71    Estrada
Tue. 7     at Colorado     L 11-4      Capuano     4    5    7.20    Estrada
Wed. 8     at Colorado     L 19-4      Gallardo    11    2.2    37.22    Miller
Fri. 10     at Houston     W 5-4      Bush    4    6    6.00    Estrada
Sat. 11     at Houston     W 7-4      Suppan      4    5.2    6.35    Estrada
Sun. 12     at Houston     L 6-4      Vargas    2    6    3.00    Miller
Tue. 14     St. Louis     L 12-4      Capuano     6    4.1    12.47    Estrada
Wed. 15     St. Louis     L 8-3      Gallardo    7    5.2    11.13    Estrada
Thu. 16     St. Louis     L 8-0      Bush    3    7    3.86    Miller
Fri. 17     Cincinnati     L 8-3      Suppan      3    5.2    4.76    Estrada
Sat. 18     Cincinnati     W 8-4      Vargas    1    5.2    1.59    Estrada
Sun. 19     Cincinnati     L 7-6      Capuano     5    6.1    7.11    Miller
Mon. 20     at Arizona     W 9-0      Gallardo    0    6    0.00    Estrada
Tue. 21     at Arizona     W 7-4      Bush    2    6    3.00    Estrada
Wed. 22     at Arizona     L 3-2      Suppan      3    7    3.86    Miller
Fri. 24     at San Francisco     L 11-6      Vargas    6    0.2    81.82    Estrada
Sat. 25     at San Francisco     L 6-2      Gallardo    5    3    15.00    Estrada
Sun. 26     at San Francisco     L 5-4      Bush    4    6.1    5.69    Miller


The breakdowns from that jagged and hard-to-read layout are:
ERA by SP when Estrada is at C:  5.95  (27 games)
ERA by SP when Miller is at C:  4.99  (15 games)
This is close, but when Miller is catching, the SPs are throwing 1 less earned run. When our team is known as a poor late game scoring team, this is pretty significant to me.

Here is the breakdown by pitcher and catcher together.
ERA by Capuano with Estrada:  6.89 (6 starts)
ERA by Capuano with Miller:  4.73  (2 games)

ERA by Suppan with Estrada:  5.56 (2 games)
ERA by Suppan with Miller:  4.11 (6 games)

ERA by Bush with Estrada: 5.28 (5 games)
ERA by Bush with Miller: 5.31 (3 games)

ERA by Vargas with Estrada: 7.20 (7 games)
ERA by Vargas with Miller: 3.00 (1 game)

ERA by Gallardo with Estrada:  4.73 (6 games)
ERA by Gallardo with Miller: 11.58 (2 games)
This also shows what Miller is doing for our team. Yes, he caught a poor Gallardo game in Colorado and Estrada caught a bad Vargas game in San Fran, but with at least 1 less run with 3 of our SPs is big time in my book.

So after fixing all my work, it looks as if Miller may be calling better games than Estrada. I do agree with the huge point someone brought up about the opposing BA by the time they get through the lineup the 3rd time. That's horrible. But with Estrada pitching (in these 2nd half stats), there are many times where the SP doesn't stay in long enough to see the opposing lineup a 3rd time.

If you have any stats to help confirm or contradict the statement of "the catchers being the reason" the SPs have been poor, please help.

Peace.

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