End O' Season Prediction Contest and Giveaway!

by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 17, 2007 6:27 AM CDT in News Comment 59 comments

Remember how much fun we had back in the beginning of the season when I had a bunch of copies of the Harvey's Wallbanger's DVD to give away? Since I'm not very creative, let's see if we can do it all again.

I'm not sure how this compares to Harvey's DVDs, but I have a bunch of recent baseball books I've gotten from publishers, including:

Brushing Back Jim Crow, by Bruce Adelson
In the Best Interests of Baseball, by Andrew Zimbalist
Little League, Big Dreams, by Charles Euchner
Behind the Scenes Baseball, by Doug Decatur
Baseball Between the Numbers, by the Authors of Baseball Prospectus
Watching Baseball Smarter, by Zach Hample

There might be another book or two, but let's say those are the prizes.

Here's how it's going to work. You can enter once, and you do so by posting a comment in this thread predicting the following:

1. By how many games will the Brewers win or lose the division? "+1" means win by one, "-3" means lose by three.
2. What will Ryan Braun's HR total be for the season? (He's currently at 30. Presumably he'll return to the lineup soon.)
3. What will Johnny Estrada's GIDP total be? (Currently, it's 17.)
4. How many total appearances will Brian Shouse make? (Currently, he's at 69, lower than I would've thought.)
5. (Tiebreaker only) What will the Brewers run differential be on the season? It's currently at +4

Since there's a game tonight, you must enter before game time. It may be helpful to remember that there are 14 games remaining, though if there is a tiebreaker, that will count as part of regular season stats.

Scores will be tabulated the same way they were for the Harvey's giveaway: we add up how wrong you are for each one (for instance, if Ryan Braun hits 114 HRs and you said 112, your score for that category is 2), and the lowest score wins. I won't count the run differential answer unless I need to break a tie.

Since the prizes aren't exactly equal, I'll give the #1 finisher (lowest score) first choice, #2 finisher second choice, and so on.

It'll be a long offseason...time to lay in some winter reading!

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I'll give it a go

+1...someone has to bite the bullet and say they'll win, right? :)
33
If we're being technical, he's only grounded into fifteen double plays with two resulting from fly outs. With that in mind I'll say 16 (18 if you count the two fly ball ones).
76
+5

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 17, 2007 7:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

I'm a bit perturbed by the lack of a disclaimer saying inclusion on the list in no way reflects your distaste for the book(s).

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 17, 2007 7:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

Actually, I almost never keep books. I haven't read everything on the list--some of them I never would've gotten to--and a few of them I really liked.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 17, 2007 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sigh

Like jacob pointed out down below, Estrada actually has sixteen double plays grounded into and eighteen overall - for whatever reason the one he hit into yesterday off Belisle wasn't on the list when I checked this morning. So I hereby change my answer to 17 (19 if you count the fly DP's).

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 17, 2007 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok

+0 I'll say they finish in a tie with the Cubs (and win the tie breaker).
31
17 Hopefully his playing time isn't that great and don't have to see another one this year.
74
+2

by Trent Durrington on Sep 17, 2007 7:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Estrada

I am guessing that Estrada does not ground into any more DPs, just to clarify.

by Trent Durrington on Sep 18, 2007 12:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a stab in the dark...

1)-2
2)34
3)18
4)78
5 TIEBREAKER:EVEN

I sincerley hope that I am wrong on #1......

If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Sep 17, 2007 8:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The eternal optimist

1)+2
2)34
3)19
4)77
5)+10

All Hail the Hebrew Hammer!!!

by grobbins on Sep 17, 2007 8:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

change

my gidp guess to 17..i misunderstood what he was at

All Hail the Hebrew Hammer!!!

by grobbins on Sep 17, 2007 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oooh....Shiny

-1
32
18
75
+9

by grant76 on Sep 17, 2007 8:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Guess I will clarify too...

Estrada +1 GIDP

by grant76 on Sep 18, 2007 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My conjecture

+1
33
19
74
+14

Ryan Braun is the Ed Hochuli of Third Basemen. Prince is now Chubber Lang

by hyattff2003 on Sep 17, 2007 8:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Clarification on Estrada

I'm going +2

Ryan Braun is the Ed Hochuli of Third Basemen. Prince is now Chubber Lang

by hyattff2003 on Sep 17, 2007 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clarification on Estrada

I'm going +2 from whatever number he currently has

Ryan Braun is the Ed Hochuli of Third Basemen. Prince is now Chubber Lang

by hyattff2003 on Sep 17, 2007 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why not

+ 1
34
18
77
+8

"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue

by Michael M on Sep 17, 2007 8:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

gah

+1
35
15 gidp (+0)
77
+8

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Sep 17, 2007 8:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

clarification

i dont think estrada will hit into anymore double plays this season, so my guess is 17, if you are saying he has 17 today. i see B-R.com has 16, and theJay says it is 15, which is what i was using.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Sep 17, 2007 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh!

It is 16. I thought that site was supposed to be updated in the wee hours of the morning. When I checked earlier this morning it was 15...but yeah, they're right that he has sixteen now. I should've looked to make sure the one he had yesterday was on the list when I posted this morning. Sorry everyone that went off my numbers. :(

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 17, 2007 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ack.

actually, I went off B-R's numbers too, and assumed they hadn't been updated when they already had. Shoot.

Maybe I'll just throw out that category.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 17, 2007 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aww jeez I love the Brewers

+1
34
20 Least favorite Brewer.
78
+19 Hopefully we get to face Mulder!

by SwampBuck on Sep 17, 2007 9:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Because God hates me..

-1 (Because I have play off tickets and god hates me)
36
21 (Including rally killer that would tie cubs for division)
75
-3 (2 Huge Blow outs skew the RD)

by SgtClueLs on Sep 17, 2007 9:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So...

Does the loser get this intriguing tome?

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 17, 2007 9:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i like this story a reader tells...

"I was especially turned off by McKeon's story about getting his son a passing grade in college by giving the professor free game tickets. The bribe is loosely referred to as having "street smarts". Let's call a spade a spade Jack, it's unethical and illegal. There's nothing "smart" about it."

"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue

by Michael M on Sep 17, 2007 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stabs in the dark during econ class

by KegelExercise on Sep 17, 2007 10:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I know nothing... But I'll Guess

* 1. +2
* 2. 34
* 3. 24
* 4. 77
* 5. +9

Hey Ned! Ever heard of small ball? Or are your balls too small?

by CATALYST on Sep 17, 2007 10:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

the brains have arrived

+2
34
19
76
+8

by johno on Sep 17, 2007 10:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

this hurts!!!

-1.5
34
22
75
-1

bring on the books!!!

Tim Bring back the chalet,frank charles at the wurlitzer organ, bob betts at the mic, and the barrell man logo!!!!

by storminTAZZ on Sep 17, 2007 11:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Kudos

I really like the implied Wrigley Field rainout not needing to be made up. Plus you get leeway for -1 and -2...clever.

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 17, 2007 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the correct predictions

+0
32 hrs
15 GIDP (only has that many right now, so no more for the rest of the year... hope we use Miller more near the end)
75
+9 runs

by Kyguy922 on Sep 17, 2007 11:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Since I won last time,

I can't possibly win this time...

-2
34
21
77
-8

by antbogey on Sep 17, 2007 11:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

alright

-2
33hrs
16 GIDP ( 1 more)
76
+4

by Bigdogg2002 on Sep 17, 2007 11:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

My guess

+1
35
19 dp (17 gidp)
75
+12

by PDUBS1216 on Sep 17, 2007 11:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Johnny Estrada told me to write this

By how many games will the Brewers win or lose the division? "+1" means win by one, "-3" means lose by three. Two
What will Ryan Braun's HR total be for the season? (He's currently at 30. Presumably he'll return to the lineup soon.) 32
What will Johnny Estrada's GIDP total be? (Currently, it's 17.) 19
How many total appearances will Brian Shouse make? (Currently, he's at 69, lower than I would've thought.) 74
(Tiebreaker only) What will the Brewers run differential be on the season? It's currently at +4 +10

I feel like Richard Dawson is going to be telling us the answers.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Sep 17, 2007 12:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm in

Go Brewers!

by Jwillie67 on Sep 17, 2007 12:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

My guesses

by drezdn on Sep 17, 2007 12:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The loser gets

This

by grant76 on Sep 17, 2007 1:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Geez

How did they get eight DVD's worth of decent Cubs play?

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 17, 2007 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good stats to predict

+2
33
18 (2 more than the 16 which seems to be the consensus total he has now)
78
+13 (I'm predicting some big blow-outs of the Astros over the next few days)

by The Tick on Sep 17, 2007 1:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll go optomist today...

I just signed up for the playoff lottery!

+1
35
19 (+2)
76
+9

"The ship feels like it's sinking, but our guys are in the boat, pushing the water out." - Ned Yost, 8/28/2007

by craigholl on Sep 17, 2007 1:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

my guesses

by DoubleJ235 on Sep 17, 2007 1:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Jamie says...

+1
33
No More DPS (16?)
76
+5

Yost puts Cordero in for more than three outs??? What a genius!!!! Manager of the year!!!

by Jamie in LA on Sep 17, 2007 1:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

here we go

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Sep 17, 2007 2:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Throw my hat in the ring...

Even - win the tiebreaker
33
17 (1 more GIDP)
76
+8

by cappad0nna on Sep 17, 2007 3:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

pix

-1 (hedging my bets, folks).
32
18
74
+1

all you got's some shiner bock and three or four chords

by somethingvague on Sep 17, 2007 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

by johno on Sep 17, 2007 3:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Can we get

these books signed by Jeff Sackman?

Ryan Braun is the Ed Hochuli of Third Basemen. Prince is now Chubber Lang

by hyattff2003 on Sep 17, 2007 4:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

Not thought out properly, have audit class tonight:

* 1. +1
* 2. 33
* 3. 21
* 4. 80
* 5. +8

by nmc on Sep 17, 2007 4:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

guess

+1
34
17 if the # is 16 or 18 if the # is 17 (1 more than currently)
77
+7

by sheeter on Sep 17, 2007 5:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's see...

Go Crew!

by iluvlamp on Sep 17, 2007 5:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Guess

-2
34
22
77
-6

by tkdragons on Sep 17, 2007 5:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yost puts Cordero in for more than three outs??? What a genius!!!! Manager of the year!!!

by Jamie in LA on Sep 17, 2007 6:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

darn it

that's a good idea. I was trying to figure out a way to include something about p.t. for dillon/rottino/nix/rivera, but couldn't figure out a simple way to do it.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 17, 2007 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My guesses

by molitorfan on Sep 17, 2007 7:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

and, we're done.

thanks everybody for entering...this should be fun to watch over the last couple of weeks.

since the game has started, entries are closed.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 17, 2007 7:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	44	39	.530	0	Lost 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	43	38	.530	0	Won 1
Cincinnati Red Reporter	40	39	.506	2	Won 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	39	39	.500	2.5	Lost 1
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	38	41	.481	4	Lost 2
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	37	44	.456	6	Lost 1