FanPost

Pathological Gambling as Baseball Strategy

You gotta know when to hold 'em, and when to fold 'em. The "Hot Hand" method of managing a baseball team is really just professional pathological gambling. You may sit down at a roulette table, or a blackjack table for entertainment, when you do that you have a certain amount of money you are willing to lose for the excitement of playing. You pay for the chance at winning. Then when your money is gone, you get up and go do something else.

Those who have a problem gambling, actually cannot stop despite a desire or even need to quit.

The professional gambler, on the other hand, has a strategy, or a method to even the odds as much as possible, and will take a crack at beating those odds for a streak, and then quit. Because the professional gambler is playing to win, you have to, as the saying goes, quit while you are ahead.

A baseball projection system, any projection system really, sets the odds for you. The "Hot Hand" strategy is the equivalent of hitting a streak of good fortune.

For example, Gabe Gross:

Marcel Projection: .265/.353/.433

Basically, the way we can use that is that we have a 50% chance to perform above those levels and a 50% chance to perform below those levels.

Ok, let's sit down at the blackjack table and play for a bit...

Gabe Gross 8/16 - 8/24:
25 Plate Appearances: .440/.440/.920

Ding, Ding, Ding, winner. 25 plate appearances of 1.360 OPS baseball. Nice! Let's play again.

Gabe Gross 8/25 - 9/4:
26 Plate Appearances: .292/.346/.417

Ok, break even, essentially matched the odds we had. Let's see, good streak, even streak, what's next? Let's pick up our chips and cash out... what... one more? Ok, a one or two more hands...

gabe gross 9/5 - 9/14
25 Plate Appearances: .100/.280/.200
BUZZER, loser. 25 plate appearances of .480 OPS baseball, ouch, that essentially wipes out our winnings.

Again? Really? Ok, Deal 'em
9/15 - 9/23
18 Plate Apperances: .176/.222/.235
Ouch, lost again. Too late to quit while we're ahead. Oh, we're quitting? Ok.

Gabe Gross 8/16 - 9/23:
94 Plate Appearances: .267/.330/.477

This is the beauty of baseball. Over the long haul, the odds are much better that you match your projection totals than you continue a hot streak or cold streak. The tricky part is when you try to ride those streaks, you really have no idea when they'll start or when they'll end. Someone could go 8 for 12 over one series and 1 for 12 over the next. A hot or cold streak can end at anytime, there is no statistical probability that a player in the middle of a streak will continue it. Knowing that, unless you are a pathological gambler (play till you lose) or a professional gambler (quit while you're ahead), aren't you always going to go with the most favorable odds, or the best player?