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Is It Really This Easy?

If you had told me in October that Mike Cameron could be had for a $5MM, one-year deal, I would've been spared an awful lot of thinking.  Given the free-agent/trade options, this is the best possible outcome for the Brewers, and it isn't even close.

First of all, I should say that I'm really surprised Doug Melvin opted for the Braun-to-LF, Hall-to-3B scenario.  If this was Strat-o-Matic, that would be obviously the right move, but even a hardcore stathead like me can see that it might not be the best idea to move Billy for the second year in a row, and to give Braun something else to think about in his first full season in the bigs.

Now that it's done, though, I think it'll be ok.  Of course Hall has played plenty of third base in his life, and--knock on wood--I can't see his bat suffering any more than it did last year.  I'm a bit more worried about Braun, but LF is probably the easiest position on the diamond, and he's an athletic guy.  What's more, he's got three and a half months until Opening Day to get after it.

On to the good part.  Mike Cameron is quite possibly the best defensive center fielder in baseball.  This move improves our defensive substantially at two positions--3B and CF--and it probably makes Braun less of a liability in that regard.

Better still, Cameron is a solid offensive contributor.  His unadjusted stats--242/328/431--are not too inspiring for 2007 in Petco, but taking the park into account, that's an above-average offensive player at a premium defensive position.  And it's the worst he's hit since 1998.  While Menchkins was (were? I'm not up to speed on the grammar of platoon names) decent last year, their park-adjusted stats were not as good.

In addition to having two position players switch spots, there is a negative: Cameron's 25-game suspension to open the season.  It's certainly not ideal, but if that's what meant we could get him for $5MM instead of $10MM (which is probably what he's worth on a one-year deal), it's a small price to pay.  Either Gwynn will hold down the fort for a few weeks, or Hart will play center and Gross, etc. will cover right.  Not a huge loss either way.

There's one more negative: LaPorta is now blocked.  If Braun is in left, I think it's safe to assume that he's not going back to third anytime soon.  I'm not sure how big of a deal this is.  There was speculation from draft day on that LaPorta was drafted as trade bait for the 2008 or '09 club.  Maybe that'll still happen.  Or maybe Corey Hart will go on the block, with Braun moving to right.  Whatever happens, it probably won't happen this year, and the current alignment of the team gives us many more reasons to be excited about 2008 than anything beyond that.

One more interesting aspect here.  I assumed all along that however we filled the 3B/LF/CF gap, it would involve trading Capuano.  It certainly looked that way when the Rolen trade was on the table.  While Cappy is no more than a 4th starter right now, he's still quite useful.  A rotation of Sheets/Gallardo/Suppan/Cappy/Bush projects a whole lot better than anything involving Vargas, and it  means Villanueva can either contribute from the pen, or be the #6 guy, as (inevitably) need be.  It also gives us the chance to deal Cappy at the deadline for whatever we need then--maybe he'll bounce back in the first half and we'll get more value for him in July than we would right now.

If you can't tell, I'm ecstatic.  Signing Cameron for five million bucks erases all the stupidity of the Estrada/Mota/Wise disaster, and more.

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No, sir
I didn't like it.  I'm bored by the signing of Cameron, a defensive specialist whose skills will decline at an accelerated rate as age and the drug policy take their toll.  Maybe he tracks down an tennis racket to bat with, but it's more likely that he fills the Jenkins strikeout void.

It's not a big deal, though.  I think Cameron will perform at a level we could have had from Gwynn, but maybe the big name makes it easier for Braun to accept the move.

The bigger problem I have with this article is that you have Cappy as the 4th starter?  No sir, until he can earn his way back into the rotation, that spot belongs to Carlos V.  Cappy sucked his way into long relief, and he's still stuck there.

It's kinda refreshing to disagree with you, Jeff.  Maybe someone else hacked your account.....jacob, maybe? :)

by Marty McSuperFly on Jan 14, 2008 12:24 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

decline
decline doesn't happen all at once, and that's why a one-year deal works for Cameron.  I certainly wasn't psyched about the idea of signing him for $24MM/3, which I thought he'd get somewhere.

I think it's ridiculous to compare Gwynn to Cameron ... maybe they are similar defensively, but while Cameron is an average-ish MLB hitter, Gwynn is barely better than average for AAA.  

If Cappy's on the team on April 1st, he'll be in the rotation.  I don't know that I'm behind that decision, but that's what the decision will be, I'm almost positive.  I don't really care whether we call him #3, #4, or #5.  It probably doesn't matter much -- someone will get hurt or traded and Villy will get plenty of starts this year.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 14, 2008 2:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If you say so
You've seen more of Cameron than I have, but his numbers over the last 4 - 5 seasons aren't doing much for me.  And maybe Gwynn was a reach, but I really don't see Cameron doing much this season.

It's too early for me to start playing the actual rotation game.  I'm sure you're right, that Cappy will be in there, but it shouldn't be at the expense of Villanueva.  Either Bush or Cappy need to give way to Carlos this year.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jan 14, 2008 2:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Over the last 4-5?
What's wrong with his 2006 numbers?  

Even last year when his hitting percentages slumped a bit, he still had decent production.  With the giant bonus to team defense, he's certainly worth what we're going to pay him.

2008: The Year of #8

by stevie ray Braun on Jan 14, 2008 6:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's it
2006 is the one standout year.  2005 was pretty good, but he only played in 76 games.  The rest are pretty blah.

I'm not actively against Cameron, I just don't feel the excitement.  He seems to me to be a guy on the downside of his career, and not likely to provide much that we didn't already have available.  His defense is good, but I don't know that Hall needed to be replaced in center, either.  I wanted for Melvin to get an actual power-hitting left-fielder, and instead he shuffled the pieces around so that we don't know what we're getting in 2008.  Hopefully, Billy takes back to third in a hurry, Cameron returns from his suspension in shape to start playing this awesome defense I hear so much about, and Braun doesn't sail a lot of balls over the head of the cutoff man.  I guess there's no arguing that we have a power-hitting left fielder, though.

To be clear, I don't think Cameron is the big mound of suck that Kendall is, but I fail to see anything to be excited about.  It just looks like a lot of players being shuffled around because Melvin couldn't make a better deal.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jan 14, 2008 7:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: platoon grammar
Being an engineer, I'm overly qualified to speak about grammar ;)



Menchkins were decent last year...
This refers to the individuals within the group as decent.  Hardly the case.


Menchkins was decent last year...
This refers to the entity or group as a whole.  This is probably the best usage as the whole idea of a platoon is that the group is much better than the individuals.

by newguy on Jan 14, 2008 2:16 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much agree
I think this is the best solution for 2008, by far.  It might not be ideal for 2009 but this team is good enough to win the Central now and it's refreshing to see the team play for right now.

People tend to underappreciate Cameron offensively because of his poor home parks for basically his entire career.  Cameron in his "bad" year last season hit .254/.341/.449 on the road and I'd say that's about what he'll put up next year.

I think he'll have a solid to great year with the Brewers and the defensive changes they  made will make the entire team look better.  They're replacing two of the worst defensive players in baseball at their positions (Hall in CF, Braun at 3B) with a guy who should be well-above average (Cameron in CF) and a guy who should be about league average (Hall at 3B).  There will likely be a bit of defensive downgrade in LF but defense is much less of a premium at that position.

by kingcharlesxii on Jan 14, 2008 2:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Career
His career numbers match the road numbers you post from last year: .251/.341/.445.  I suppose the Brewers will probably be happy to get that.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jan 14, 2008 2:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep
That would be an above-average CFer offensively and well above average defensively for less than $7 million.  I think they'd be thrilled to get that.

by kingcharlesxii on Jan 14, 2008 4:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hart
I think I would love to see Hart in CF for the 09 season. Is Braun good enough to play RF? Is LaPorta? I can't see Braun in CF in 09 and I don't really see us hanging on to Cameron for longer than a year.

A Braun/Hart/LaPorta outfield would be stacked if the pieces could somehow fit together.

by thekid2point0 on Jan 14, 2008 5:55 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

i agree, kid.
i think the best scenario would be to move Hart to CF, Braun to RF, and play LaPorta in LF.  The only way that I can see a better way to handle it is to trade LaPorta for someone who can play a legit CF for a few years to come, or someone to step into Sheets' shoes (more or less).  I agree about Cameron in 2009, too: $10mm for a 37-year old is no bueno.  I'm glad to have him for 5 this year, though.
"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Jan 14, 2008 6:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Someone has to say it
We could just have a LaBrart 400-AB each meta-platoon. I kid, I kid. :)
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jan 14, 2008 7:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Short deals
No matter what you think of Cameron and Gagne you do have to appreciate that if they both bomb we will be  off the hook next year.  The low cost 1-year gamble isn't a bad move.  No one wants to be like the Orioles paying Albert "Joey" Belle 7 years after he retired.

by molitorfan on Jan 14, 2008 8:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Optimism
I'm actually optimistic for another reason.  With all these one year deals, it really looks like this  is Ned's last chance.  If the Brewers fail again this year, Melvin can blow up the team and rebuild with a talented young core and a new manager.  That's the kind of rebuilding I can get behind.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jan 14, 2008 10:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Offense
I don't worry much about Braun's offense suffering with this move.  Robin Yount didn't seem to be hurt by moving to CF.  Albert Pujols moved all over the place his first few years, didn't seem to bother him.  Soriano didn't like moving to the outfield but it didn't hurt his batting.  Pete Rose moved all over the place in his career, didn't bother his hitting.  

The only player I can remember it being a problem for is Bill Hall.  Maybe it's just Bill Hall.  

What if Melvin said we are moving Hardy to 3B and Hall back to SS?  Would Hall still have a problem with moving positions?  I think Hall feels he should be the SS on this team and that's the real problem.

by HH26 on Jan 15, 2008 7:38 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Hall may not be wrong
I should've added to my post above that Hall may have a case for being the best SS on the team.  In 2006, he played a good SS and hit 30 HRs, why should he have to move to a new position?  I think he has better range than Hardy but Hardy is more sure handed.  Yost sees Hall making a play up the middle and "assumes" Hardy would've made the play as well.  Yost sees Hall make an error on a routine play and "knows" Hardy would've made that play.  So in Yost's eyes, Hardy is the better SS.  

by HH26 on Jan 15, 2008 9:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

However
You could also use the reasoning that we all know Hall is a gifted athlete and we KNOW he can play a respectable 3B along with any of the other 2 or 3 positions he has experience with. Hardy on the other hand has probably never played any other position than SS in his professional career (I'm too lazy right now to verify that for sure, so it's just my assumption). Moving a player from the only position he has ever known seems like a much bigger risk (that took every once of self-control I have to resist using you know what) to me than moving a previously proven player back there.

On a side note, what are the odds Hall will actually end up at short at some point during the season, when Hardy goes down with another injury? I would think Hall would play a better short than Counsell, so does Yost risk pissing off Hall more, by another move mid-season?

by MadJimiBrewha on Jan 15, 2008 10:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not A Cameron fan.
The biggest negative about Cameron is his propensity to strikeout: he's been a league top-ten guy in strikeouts for nine of the past ten years.  When you look at his low OBP numbers,a slugging percentage that doesn't come close to justifying the Ks -- there are only three players in major league history with 160 Ks and a slugging percentage lower than .431 (Cameron's 2007 numbers), his age and the 25-game suspension, it doesn't seem like a superior option to seeing what the competition of Dillon/Gwynn/Gross/Lofton (?) might bring.  Watching all of the rally-killing strikeouts from Hall and Jenkins in 2007 was one of the most difficult aspects of being a Brewer fan.   I really would have preferred a higher OBP, cheaper option.

A more radical idea would be to trade Hardy -- his trade value may never be higher.  If you could land, say, Erik Bedard for Hardy and move Hall to SS, that would go increase our chances quite a bit for a postseason appearance.

Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....

by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 15, 2008 3:33 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Why are so many people here so down on Cameron?
He solves TWO defensive problems.  Had one down year, last year.  Is a quality vet, which we need badly.  He's been there and done that.  You all don't think the likes of Prince, JJ, Corey, Bill, Ryan, YoGa, Chuck Newhouse, Manny, and the likes won't give him a lift?  This is THE perfect team for a guy like Mike Cameron.  All this youth, and on top of that, we really need him.

Enough with the platoon shit, and salary shit.  THERE IS NO SALARY CAP IN MLB.  Let Mark A and his cohorts spend what they want.  This team is clearly better than any team we've had since probably the '80s.

We have TWO LEGIT MVP CANDIDATES, For godsakes!

Lordz Of Vengeance....Sometimes I drink...Okay...I drink most of the time.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jan 15, 2008 3:59 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I don't hate Cameron, but...
If playing on the Padres (who contended and went to the playoffs during his time there) and Mets (ditto) in cities liek Ny and San Diego didn't "give him a lift," why will Milwaukee?

MC's numbers pre-2007 aren't terrific, he still was a strikeout machine with a low OBP and he's older now.  

Hope his ideas on when to swing the bat or how to enhance performance via supplements isn't part of the vet wisdom he's going to impart on the youngsters!

Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....

by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 15, 2008 4:07 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

No lift?
He probably didn't get a "lift" from playing for the Padres for a reason not unlike why Vinny Castilla did well in 2004 for a bad team in Colorado; that is, whether or not their team contended probably didn't have much to do with their success offensively.

From 1997 (his first full season or his career minus his first 56 plate appearances) to 2007, Cameron had an OPS of .789 and an OPS+ of 107. Let's look at all the players who had 2000 or more plate appearances in that span and who spent at least 50% of their games in center field.

First, in terms of just OPS, Cameron is fifteenth, right behind Torii Hunter and tied with an aging Brady Anderson. Kenny Lofton is right below him at .786, so what Lofton gives you in on base percentage is what Cameron gives you in slugging percentage. As an aside, it's kind of interesting that Dave Roberts has the same OPS as Corey Patterson.

Here's the list using OPS+, which takes into account park and league and all that fun stuff. Cameron then moves up to eleventh. Lofton is fifteenth with 103 now, but still behind Cameron.

This doesn't even take into account defense. It'd be nice if Cameron got on base more, sure, but his defense is much better than that of the other free agent options (I'm thinking mostly of Lofton). Given that Cameron's a better offensive and defensive player and younger (doesn't mean much, since they're both on the downside of their careers), I think it's hard to say Lofton would be a better signing.

I'm not sure what higher-OBP, cheaper options there are without trading a whole bunch of players for them. I think a relatively cheap (heck, LOOGYs get $2 million now) one-year commitment to an aging but still good overall (especially defensively) player is worth it.

Finally, and this may be taking your point too far, I don't get the rally-killing strikeouts point as it relates to Hall and Jenkins. Even if we very loosely define a rally-killing strikeout as one with at least one runner somewhere beyond first base (i.e., in scoring position), Hall struck out 27 times in 135 chances (20.0%). That's actually less often than he struck out overall (128 K in 503 PA comes to 25.4%). In his career, he has struck out 22.8% of the time he come to bat with RISP as opposed to 24.4% of the time overall. If anything, he's slightly less likely to strike out in a rally situation. In his career, Jenkins has struck out in 22.7% of his plate appearances. With runners in scoring position, it's 22.7% again. Compared to Prince Fielder (18.9% overall vs. 20.5% with RISP), guys that keep their K rate steady or even lower it with RISP are valuable. :) (yes, yes, Fielder still strikes out less than either of those two, but still...)

I guess I figure with regular players getting between 125-175 PA with RISP during the year, you'd expect almost anyone on the roster to strike out 25-35 times in my rally-killing scenario (I know that everyone has their own idea of when a rally is killed, which is a problem as well). Psychologically it stings more when it's someone like Hall or Jenkins because they're not the golden-boy uberprospects and they strike out a lot anyway, but the difference between them and another player on the roster is minimal. On the other extreme is a player like Johnny Estrada who didn't strike out but didn't have much luck with avoiding DPs. Who knows, maybe Cameron will continue to rake with RISP (.266/.371/.472 in his career), occasional ill-timed strikeouts or not.

I agree that a high-OBP, cheap player would be the best but I think the front office did okay without having to pay through the nose (especially since at best the starter de jour of the Diftosynn bunch would probably at best give you Cameron's equal offensively without the same defense). Alright, I'm done rambling on and on now. :)

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jan 15, 2008 10:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

#24
I like to see good old number 24, Daryl Hamilton, checking in at the 20 spot on your list.  I loved that guy and saw him make one of the greatest throws to home plate in the best Brewer game I ever saw at County Stadium.  

The year was 1992, July, against the ChiSox and Chris Bosio and Charlie Hough had a duel going that had both teams going into the ninth scoreless.  The Sox get some guys on in the top of the ninth and a shot is hit to DH and he throws the guy out at home to end the inning.

In the bottom of the ninth, Scott Fletcher, yes him, comes up with two guys on and sneaks one around the left field foul pole into that weird alley that they had there at the old park and the Crew wins over the evil Southsiders.

Greatest. Game. Ever.  For me at least.  And I was at the Series in '82.

by Jwillie67 on Jan 17, 2008 11:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

On the issue of strikeouts
A lot of people have been criticizing Cameron for his strikeout totals, but it shouldn't really be much of a concern.  Aside from ridiculous intangibles like "killing rallies" and the ever present possibility of a bad hit getting by a clumsy fielder, the only real problem is when trying to advance a runner.  First of all, depending on where Cameron ends up in the batting order, this shouldn't be much of a concern or expectation from him.  Secondly, I would argue that it's much better to miss the occasional zero or one out chance to move a runner over than to be hitting into double plays all the time.  An outs and out, and sometimes it's better to whiff at the plate and take one out than two bloop into two.

Obviously these are just basic statistics, but to compare the seasons of Cameron and Jenkins (who he's essentially replacing), as well as Estrada (who's absence will at the very least neutralize Cameron's pitfalls) it appears on the surface as if Cameron is a better hitter as well as much better fielder than we had:

In 2007 (a down year for Cameron) he had an OBS of .328 and a GDP percentage of .016 (9 in 571 AB)

In 2007 Geoff Jenkins had an OBS of .319 and a GDP percentage of .022, while Johnny Estrada had a dismal .296 OBP and an even worse .036 GDP percentage.

Head to head with Jenkins, Cameron is a much better option for next season.  He had a higher OBP % and lower GDP %, and is a reasonably better fielder at his position.  Even if he strikes out more, he costs us less outs overall.  Add in the fact that signing Cameron drastically improves not only CF, but 3B as well, and Cameron gives us an even bigger defensive upgrade.  Furthermore, Jenkins is going to cost more next season.

As for Estrada, we're already getting a significant improvement in these two stats from Kendall (not very impressive .301 OBP last year, along with a .017 GDP percentage, but better than Estrada).  So even if Cameron made the team hit into more double plays or get on base less, which he isn't, we still wouldn't be worse offensively than last year, while simultaneously getting a bonus in defense and salary room.

2008: The Year of #8

by stevie ray Braun on Jan 15, 2008 7:50 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I still don't believe...
The whole estrada/mota/wise deal is a bad thing...
TED IS TO NED WHAT CHENEY IS TO BUSH.

by CATALYST on Jan 15, 2008 7:56 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of things being easy
Jeff, way to be 3 games over .500 with the 86 Crew
I saw the overcrowded marketplase that is the brewers blogs and said, "Me Too!" here

by hyattff2003 on Jan 15, 2008 8:24 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Braun Speaks on Position Switch
He seems very positive about it.  A great sign.  He could be a brat about it (sorta like the Bill Hall rumors at 3B) and cause clubhouse issues.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/16/brewers-ryan-bruan-tired-of-talk-ready-to-play/

by ET90210 on Jan 16, 2008 8:37 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

If this were Strat-O-Matic
getting rid of a 5e35 (Braun) is ALWAYS a great move! I'm all about Cammy. Bring on the 08 Spring Training season!

by Bertwerst on Jan 16, 2008 2:21 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Melvin
has made some nice low-risk, high-reward moves this year with Gagne and Cameron.  The team will benefit a lot if even one of those two pan out like they're capable of.

With Cappy and Bush, I would like to trade on of them, and definitely get rid of Vargas (who now is being paid $3.6M for some unknown reason) for some prospects to help replenish our farm system.  We only need 6 starters on the team, and all three are going to be getting a pay raise.  Yost said that Parra will get every shot to make the starting rotation...and I see the rotation being:

Sheets
Suppan
Gallardo
Villanueva
Parra
Bush - long relief

This would allow us to trade two pitchers that are being paid a good amount of money for higher-tier prospects.  We'd at least be getting rid of their salaries and their high pitch-counts.

Come check out BrewersNation, a new Brewers blog that keeps you up to date on ALL Brewers news and rumors. http://sportsnationjb.blogspot.com/

by jimmyb1799 on Jan 17, 2008 8:48 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Don't trade 2
i'd rather the brewers didnt trade 2 of the excess starters...i realize 7 is still a lot to carry, but you CAN'T HAVE TOO MUCH STARTING PITCHING...for example look at the red sox in '05 or '06: traded Arroyo from a deep SP staff and ended up with people like Jason Johnson and David Pauley filling in a decimated rotation by the end of the year.  
By the way, i love Parra, but i see him going down to triple A just based on a numbers crunch.  I think he'd produce better than Cappy/Vargas/Bush (maybe not cappy but who knows), but he's one of the few with options left.
Trade cappy for an up and coming catcher.

by marty22 on Jan 18, 2008 12:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Lofton
Lofton is not a very good option in my opinion.  His stats slipped in the 2nd half last year, he can't hit lefties anymore.  He can't play every day.  He was a below average fielder in LF last year so he shouldn't be playing CF.

I like the Cameron move a lot, he gets a bad rap because he played in pitcher parks most of his career.  Yeah he K's too much but no more than Jenkins did so it isn't like we are gaining extra K's from the move, just replacing old K's.

by Ender on Jan 19, 2008 12:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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