Brew Crew Ball: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Cal RB Jahvid Best Seriously Injured, Carted Off Field

Projecting Jason Kendall

Last night, I was looking at a graphical representation of Mike Rivera's game log.  (Can't link it, sorry, but you can look at the BR version, here.)  It's just bizarre that he spent the entire season with the team--healthy, as far as I know--and started less than 10% of the team's games.

All this thanks to Jason Kendall's durability and...game-calling ability, apparently.  It certainly isn't because of anything Kendall brought to the lineup, except for maybe contact skills.  (Contact in the form of groundouts, of course.)

Anyway, here's what Kendall's trends have looked like over the last four years.  (Again, if you're new to this stuff, read the intro to the JJ Hardy article.)

Month AVG OBP SLG OPS
200409 0.261 0.338 0.333 0.670
200504 0.269 0.346 0.340 0.685
200505 0.268 0.344 0.338 0.681
200506 0.271 0.348 0.339 0.685
200507 0.272 0.349 0.340 0.688
200508 0.269 0.345 0.333 0.676
200509 0.270 0.346 0.335 0.679
200604 0.276 0.353 0.342 0.693
200605 0.277 0.355 0.344 0.697
200606 0.277 0.352 0.341 0.691
200607 0.276 0.352 0.339 0.689
200608 0.279 0.352 0.341 0.691
200609 0.279 0.353 0.339 0.690
200704 0.269 0.341 0.325 0.664
200705 0.267 0.338 0.321 0.657
200706 0.268 0.336 0.325 0.659
200707 0.268 0.336 0.325 0.659
200708 0.270 0.339 0.330 0.667
200709 0.268 0.338 0.327 0.662
200804 0.262 0.330 0.324 0.651
200805 0.258 0.327 0.320 0.645
200806 0.259 0.328 0.321 0.647
200807 0.254 0.324 0.316 0.638
200808 0.253 0.323 0.314 0.635
200809 0.251 0.322 0.313 0.633

 That's just not pretty.  What surprises me a bit is that, aside from a slight uptick in mid-07, Kendall has been sliding downward for almost three years straight.  His April was kind of exciting for us, but MINER sees right through all those groundball hits.

For reference, the NL average catcher has a line of 255/328/387, for an OPS of 715, 65 points higher than Kendall's 08 season.  (Once you adjust these neutral projections for the NL, the projection is also in the 640-650 range.)

There's only so much room for improvement at catcher--short of trading for or developing a real weapon like Mauer, Martin, or Soto, you're left with guys like Kendall and Torrealba on the free-agent market every year.  But for the sake of illustration, the simple runs created formula suggests that Cubs catchers generated 102 offensive runs, while Brewers catchers were worth 65.  That's almost four wins, just at one position.

Maybe Kendall's experience and the pitchers' comfort level with him is worth three or four wins.  But I doubt it.

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Brew Crew Ball

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

Oct 2009 by KLSnow - 61 comments

Monday's Frosty Mug

Oct 2009 by KLSnow - 54 comments

Friday's Frosty Mug

Oct 2009 by KLSnow - 43 comments

Comments

Display:

who is this rivera guy of which you speak?

Situational Signature (8th/9th inning only): pleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendall
--NoahJ

by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 15, 2008 2:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Isn’t he the guy who was embarrassed on live TV some years ago when Al Capone’s “vault” was empty?

It's called "playing the percentages."

by hilbelink on Oct 15, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Salome/Rivera ’09!

by HRF on Oct 15, 2008 6:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

i assumed...

since we were talking about his offensive production, you already had the magnifying glass handy.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 15, 2008 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair point...

Though Jason-Kendall’s-offensive-production seems to be an oxymoron.

by Braun Holio on Oct 15, 2008 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really enjoy this series, but you didn't project his I-WARP?

Or his intangible wins above replacement player.

Anyone can state the obvious; Mid .600s OPS, 150ish games, a missing-link beard and an inability to be pinch hit for.

But the INTANGIBLES! Leadership, Grit, Running out pop-ups… Noone does it like JK.

by Braun Holio on Oct 15, 2008 6:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

In Kendall's defense is his defense

Or at least it was in 2008. Soto was in the 20% throwing out rate and Kendall was in the low 40% rate. That does cover things up a little but not four wins worth.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Oct 16, 2008 7:19 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Our friend Sky had a post at Beyond the Boxscore where you had to pick which one of a pair was more productive based on the overall rating +/- metric, and the joke/trick was that every pair was within a few runs of each other overall. One of the pairs was Kendall and Carlos Lee, they were only a few apart given Lee’s crappy defense. So if Kendall can keep up the stellar D, he’s not too much of a liability.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Oct 16, 2008 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Brew Crew Ball is dedicated to providing a friendly atmosphere for intelligent Brewer conversation. Click here to view our Posting Guide and Community Guidelines.
Start posting about the Brewers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Braun_fielder_small
Vazquez/Bradley
Barrelman_small
Just for Fun: Comparing Gomez and Gutierrez
Box_small
Low OBP + Young Player = What Kind of Career?
Barrelman_small
Updated 2010 Brewers Roster/Salary Predictions
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
2009 Offseason Free Agency Dates
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Speculationville: Glen Perkins
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Somebody Get Me My Cardboard: Bob Wolfley Breaks It Down
Small
Brewers Minor League Leaders thru the 00's - Strikeouts
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
JJ Hardy's Trade Value
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Tangentially related Brewers news

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Featured Poll

Poll
Who won the J.J. Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade?

  146 votes | Results

79 - 82

11

Won 3

1

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 28.5 Lost 2

(updated 11.8.2009 at 10:18 PM CST)

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Baseball, I wish I could quit you.
Reminder
The Pilots/Brewers First Home Game
You think you know the Brewers Farm System? You've got nothing on this guy.
Red Sox offered Bowden for Hardy?
Melvin: "We are going to consider [Lucroy] as a candidate
Hot Stove: Garland's option declined, will be a FA
Post on Minor League Ball asking for top 5 Brewers prospects
Alcides Escobar "abandoned his daughter before she was born"
Cain, Lucroy, Green in the lineup in the AFL tonight.

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


Moderators

U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small roguejim

Mordecai_brown_small Jeff Sackmann

Newavatar_small KLSnow

Box_small TheJay

Communist_party_small Jordan M

Contributors

Dsci0355_small kirbir

Picture_069_small tristarscoop

Dsc01174_small BrewHaHeather

Rubie_edited-1_small Rubie Q

Hikaru_50_small morineko

X1pxoywqu4sjf73f7drxq2lmqys7mzsyx7pa9necepiffk_ewcuwmuazb-o17ukmbriclcdkn4lk-4xposaawiq4j8hzdsccpjwatqpz2o2p-i0nnqjlyt7pmytaycsaknszvaktpshtcu9sjle1qchlw_1__small NoahJ

Hulk_buddy-icon_small Fatter than Joey