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Projecting Jason Kendall

Last night, I was looking at a graphical representation of Mike Rivera's game log.  (Can't link it, sorry, but you can look at the BR version, here.)  It's just bizarre that he spent the entire season with the team--healthy, as far as I know--and started less than 10% of the team's games.

All this thanks to Jason Kendall's durability and...game-calling ability, apparently.  It certainly isn't because of anything Kendall brought to the lineup, except for maybe contact skills.  (Contact in the form of groundouts, of course.)

Anyway, here's what Kendall's trends have looked like over the last four years.  (Again, if you're new to this stuff, read the intro to the JJ Hardy article.)

Month AVG OBP SLG OPS
200409 0.261 0.338 0.333 0.670
200504 0.269 0.346 0.340 0.685
200505 0.268 0.344 0.338 0.681
200506 0.271 0.348 0.339 0.685
200507 0.272 0.349 0.340 0.688
200508 0.269 0.345 0.333 0.676
200509 0.270 0.346 0.335 0.679
200604 0.276 0.353 0.342 0.693
200605 0.277 0.355 0.344 0.697
200606 0.277 0.352 0.341 0.691
200607 0.276 0.352 0.339 0.689
200608 0.279 0.352 0.341 0.691
200609 0.279 0.353 0.339 0.690
200704 0.269 0.341 0.325 0.664
200705 0.267 0.338 0.321 0.657
200706 0.268 0.336 0.325 0.659
200707 0.268 0.336 0.325 0.659
200708 0.270 0.339 0.330 0.667
200709 0.268 0.338 0.327 0.662
200804 0.262 0.330 0.324 0.651
200805 0.258 0.327 0.320 0.645
200806 0.259 0.328 0.321 0.647
200807 0.254 0.324 0.316 0.638
200808 0.253 0.323 0.314 0.635
200809 0.251 0.322 0.313 0.633

 That's just not pretty.  What surprises me a bit is that, aside from a slight uptick in mid-07, Kendall has been sliding downward for almost three years straight.  His April was kind of exciting for us, but MINER sees right through all those groundball hits.

For reference, the NL average catcher has a line of 255/328/387, for an OPS of 715, 65 points higher than Kendall's 08 season.  (Once you adjust these neutral projections for the NL, the projection is also in the 640-650 range.)

There's only so much room for improvement at catcher--short of trading for or developing a real weapon like Mauer, Martin, or Soto, you're left with guys like Kendall and Torrealba on the free-agent market every year.  But for the sake of illustration, the simple runs created formula suggests that Cubs catchers generated 102 offensive runs, while Brewers catchers were worth 65.  That's almost four wins, just at one position.

Maybe Kendall's experience and the pitchers' comfort level with him is worth three or four wins.  But I doubt it.

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who is this rivera guy of which you speak?

Situational Signature (8th/9th inning only): pleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendall
--NoahJ

by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 15, 2008 2:56 PM CDT   0 recs

Isn’t he the guy who was embarrassed on live TV some years ago when Al Capone’s “vault” was empty?

It's called "playing the percentages."

by hilbelink on Oct 15, 2008 3:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Salome/Rivera ’09!

by HRF on Oct 15, 2008 6:12 PM CDT   0 recs

i assumed...

since we were talking about his offensive production, you already had the magnifying glass handy.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 15, 2008 8:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Fair point...

Though Jason-Kendall’s-offensive-production seems to be an oxymoron.

by Braun Holio on Oct 15, 2008 9:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I really enjoy this series, but you didn't project his I-WARP?

Or his intangible wins above replacement player.

Anyone can state the obvious; Mid .600s OPS, 150ish games, a missing-link beard and an inability to be pinch hit for.

But the INTANGIBLES! Leadership, Grit, Running out pop-ups… Noone does it like JK.

by Braun Holio on Oct 15, 2008 6:50 PM CDT   0 recs

In Kendall's defense is his defense

Or at least it was in 2008. Soto was in the 20% throwing out rate and Kendall was in the low 40% rate. That does cover things up a little but not four wins worth.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Oct 16, 2008 7:19 AM CDT   0 recs

Our friend Sky had a post at Beyond the Boxscore where you had to pick which one of a pair was more productive based on the overall rating +/- metric, and the joke/trick was that every pair was within a few runs of each other overall. One of the pairs was Kendall and Carlos Lee, they were only a few apart given Lee’s crappy defense. So if Kendall can keep up the stellar D, he’s not too much of a liability.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by jihad on Oct 16, 2008 3:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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