2009 Brewers ZiPS Projections

In case you were curious. I must say, I like Szym's new format.

about 1 year ago cwyers 18 comments 0 recs |

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Holy Braun

Optimistic (15%) .337/.390/.683, 52 HR, 160 RBI, 21 SB

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Oct 23, 2008 6:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

he still plays third though?

by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 23, 2008 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he’s in the corner outfield projections as well

by pjpaulus on Oct 23, 2008 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My god that would be awesome.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Oct 23, 2008 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's fun comparing Gamel and Hall

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Oct 23, 2008 9:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I would think Gamel would be more of an improvement (offensively of course) over Hall.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Oct 23, 2008 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Starting pitching looks pretty bleak.

I’m not really sure how Salome is “very good” with his .314 OBP. I would give him a more good with those stats. And these projections really don’t like Alcides Escobar, eh?

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Oct 23, 2008 10:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The bar is pretty low for catchers

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Oct 23, 2008 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suppose.

I guess I just prefer to look more at the grand scheme of things where his batting line really wouldn’t be all that impressive.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Oct 23, 2008 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, with “very good” being the 61-80% quintile, it doesn’t necessarily mean Salome is projected to be a superstud or anything, just that he’s likely somewhat above average in what (as you’re saying) is a pretty weak field.

by Zeyes on Oct 24, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the history on the accuracy of the pitching projections?

if only because I don’t believe Mark DiFelice would really walk that many batters. ;) (OK, and I’d like to believe that McClung is better than that projection…the 2007-08 model isn’t quite the same guy TB kept throwing out there to get pounded upon.)

by morineko on Oct 23, 2008 11:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

IIRC, ZiPS is just a bit behind Chone/PECOTA in accuracy.

They’re all accurate to about +/- 0.80 ERA, IIRC. So there’s room to play hope, I suppose.

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by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 12:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rickie's optimistic line looks good

Maybe a change in manager would benefit him: trying to get some bunt hits, cutting down his 2 strike swing and maybe just a different voice than Ned’s.

Having an OBP 120 points over BA seems exceptional. I wonder how rare that is.

by ol Pete on Oct 24, 2008 11:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Cue TheJay in 3....2....

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Oct 24, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, yeah, yeah

I was working on it.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Oct 24, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You always say that

"If loving CC is wrong I do not want to be right"
"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender"

by kirbir on Oct 24, 2008 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since 1913...*

Just over 10,000 hitters have qualified for the batting title in a season (using the current 3.1 PA per game rule retroactively). Of those, only 391 have put up an OBP at least .120 over his batting average. Four hitters out of 147 batting title qualifiers made the list this year: Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena, and Jason Giambi. Each of those guys hit below .250 on the season.

Weeks missed the list by 12 points this year, but he made it in 2007, when he had a 139 point difference between his .374 OBP and .235 BA. He’s one of only eight players (out of sixty-three total) to make the list since 2000 while hitting fewer than 20 home runs during the season.

*Actually not a randomly picked year: it’s how long batting strikeouts have been consistently recorded in both leagues – isn’t relevant to this but it was to the reason I originally put together the list.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Oct 24, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say that's pretty rare

by ol Pete on Oct 24, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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St. Louis Viva El Birdos	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
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