Fielder for B.J. Upton
by HRF on Oct 27, 2008 11:08 PM CDT
127 comments
Fielder's in arbitration. Three years of control.
Upton has a year before hitting arbitration. Four years of control.
Fielder: 39.8 VORP. Is fat.
Upton: 32.1 VORP. Potentially had nagging shoulder injury the entire year preventing power.
I don't think this straight up would be accepted by Tampa. And with Upton's absolutely torrid October--not to mention the whole reigning AL Champs with an average roster age of like 11--I really wonder how much else it would take. So, pretend you're calling up the Rays' GM Andrew Freidman and make your best offer for B.J. Upton.
(note: I bring up Fielder because he's not an untouchable and of the non-untouchables has the most value--especially going to the DH league. But if you want to make an offer including Hardy and what not, go for it.)
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ehh
i am a huge bj upton fan, but i definately would not trade prince straight up for him .. princey is proven (50 dingers last year) and bj upton has not proved much yet although im pretty sure he will .. he only hit low 270’s this year with a slow finish if i remember correctly. if i could have it my way, i would say upton and a young arm, maybe garza, or a bullpen arm and we will throw in Gwynn Jr. and a top prospect not named gamel along with princey but im not sure that will be in the best interest of the TB Rays.
by BrewerBlue87 on Oct 27, 2008 11:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
one of them is exceptional on defense
one is not
by ol Pete on Oct 28, 2008 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thinking aloud...
fielder, weeks, gwynn, luis pena for upton, garza, iwarnuma
I untuck my shirt!
by Michael M on Oct 27, 2008 11:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
prince for david price...
…absolutely
by BrewerBlue87 on Oct 27, 2008 11:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
Unless we get an arm in return…. Prince stays put.
by Saberilliterate on Oct 28, 2008 7:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't Let The Playoffs Make Upton
The guy is good, but we could use the arms a lot more than the glove and bat of Upton.
I’d dig a move for David Price here, but again, the guy should be darn near untouchable for them if they have a brain(unless they want to express gratitude for letting them have Gross for a never will be :D).
What would a Price deal look like for you guys? Because to me I’d imagine we’d be forced to move just another option to that trade. Nothing too flashy, not a huge name, but I’d think a minor leaguer or two would be needed to start that trade talk.
by Lavender on Oct 28, 2008 9:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Forget about David Price.
Untouchable is absolutely the word for him.
But, I’ve thought about the Rays as a trade partner before, because they have a DH opening with Cliff Floyd probably retiring.
The Rays are stocked with young arms of value. At the major league level they have JP Howell, Andy Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson. In the high minors they have Wade Davis, Jacob McGee, Eduardo Morlan. Any one of these guys would help the Brewers, and if we were to trade a guy like Prince, I’d look to nab like 3 of them. I’d choose Sonnanstine, Howell, and Morlan to start. Wade Davis would be awesome, too. Or, maybe they’ll ‘throw in’ Rocco Baldelli if we throw in something? Thing is, if we’re going to Trade Prince for pitching, especially young guys already to contribute at the major league level, the Rays have a lot to offer.
All I really want to know is if Greinke or Lincecum is available, but we’ve already beaten that horse to death.
by baumann on Oct 28, 2008 11:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i would say price is almost untouchable ... but not quite
it would have to include the right package .. the rays got to the world series without price this year, and they have plenty of youngarms coming up (though nowhere near as good as price) A package of fielder and parra would get it done for sure. fills the rays need for a DH and gives them a starter for their rotation (prolly a 4 or 5 for the rays). this would give them 2 more starters they did not have the past year
by BrewerBlue87 on Oct 28, 2008 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha no.
this would give them 2 more starters they did not have the past year
Math isn’t your strong suit, isn’t it?
The Rays are giving up one starter, and getting two. They are gaining one starter, not two.
Price is the closest thing to a sure-lock ace out there when you’re talking prospects. The Rays have him for six years at WELL below market value. The Rays aren’t a better team for making this deal, as Price is head and shoulders better than Fielder and Parra.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 1, 2008 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He didn't mean starting pitching necessarily.
Parra is a starter they didn’t have, as a pitcher, and Prince would be the starting first basemen or DH. Thats two starting players.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on Nov 2, 2008 8:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Prince would never see the field for the Rays.
Pena is a gold glove 1B.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 2, 2008 10:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Net gain.
If you give up one starter, and get two in return, you gain a net total of one starting player. -1 + 2 = 1
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 2, 2008 12:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He would be trading Parra and Prince for Price, if I read that correctly.
Price wasn’t in the starting rotation. In this scenario, he is saying Parra would be in the starting rotation and Prince would be the starting DH.
0 + 2 = 2.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on Nov 2, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Price is 100% in the rotation next year.
Edwin Jackson will either move to the pen or be traded.
You don’t keep an elite arm like that out of the rotation. He has demonstrated that he’s ready for MLB, and will get his fair shot.
So, you can count him as a starter.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 2, 2008 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That is equivalent to saying Alcides Escobar is a starter.
I suppose it just depends how you look at it.
Why bother even bickering?
Math is always on our side.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on Nov 2, 2008 6:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Escobar hasn't proven anything at the big league level.
Price has proven something in MLB, Escobar hasn’t. He’s earned his rotation spot with his dominant performance, although it was over a small sample size. Escobar has had all of 4 ABs in the bigs.
I think making Drew, Kotsay, Varitek, and Lowrie sit down in the last innings of a really really big game kind of is proving something.
But yeah, yay for Yost.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 2, 2008 8:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Drew, Kotsay, Varitek, Lowrie...
Not exactly a murderers row. Yeah, big game and all. Just probably not the best example. :)
Escobar hit .500 with an OPS+ of 165 in a pennant race. Spot: Earned.
Hehe.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on Nov 2, 2008 10:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You said it yourself. You can’t prove anything over four at-bats.
by HRF on Nov 2, 2008 11:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Escobar also wasn't the first overall pick in the draft
by tcyoung on Nov 3, 2008 7:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So...Tim Beckham: Starter?
Draft position is irrelevant. Yeah, Price will probably be in the starting rotation. Escobar also has a good chance to be starting for us. Until it is concrete that they are, though, I am not going to say that they are starting.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on Nov 3, 2008 9:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why does everyone devalue Fielder so much around here?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Oct 28, 2008 6:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think people are devaluing him.
I think everyone agrees he’s an elite hitter.
But there are three reasons his name keeps coming up:
1. He’s a bad defender. This makes him a better DH than a 1Bman, so all else equal, AL teams should value him more than NL teams.
2. He’s going from a six-figure contract to a possible eight-figure contract in one year. He’ll probably be worth the ~$10MM he’ll make next year, but we’re already spending a lot of money, and Fielder for $10MM is a lot less appealing than Fielder for $1MM.
3. If we’re losing CC and Ben, we need pitching more than we need hitting. If there are teams that value him more than we do (see #1), it stands to reason we could construct a win-win deal to get someone in the Cain/Greinke/etc mold.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 28, 2008 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and not only is Fielder a bad defender, he's a 1B to boot
I’d rather have Upton going forward. let’s take their Marcel OPS projections, from the Hardball Times:
Fielder: .910
Upton: .770
That’s a .140 point difference in OPS. Over a full-season each .050 points of OPS is worth about a win, so Fielder’s projected to be a little under 3 wins better. BJ’s obviously a better baserunner, so let’ call Fielder’s advantage 2 to 2.5 wins. 1B is 1.5 wins less valuable than CF. Fielder’s about -1 win at 1B. BJ’s about average right now. Add it up and the two are projected to be equally valuable, if not a slight edge to BJ. And which one has more room to improve?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 28, 2008 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Based on those projections?
I would argue Fielder is much more likely to improve.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Oct 28, 2008 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
why, i'm curious
I made my bold, subjective claim on the fact that BJ was dealing with a shoulder injury this year and is still learning his position.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 29, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t forget your dislike of Prince. I’m curious how many games have you seen him play?
by ol Pete on Oct 29, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
about as many as I've seen Upton play
I don’t dislike Prince, as a person or a ballplayer. I think he’s overrated, so I probably like him less than most people do. But he’s still good.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 29, 2008 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
aren't you a Rays fan?
You saw Prince play as often as them?
And “good” doesn’t sound like praise. “Way overrated, crappy fielder, decent-but-not-great hitter” sounds like disdain. The flip side of that is you believe that Upton will improve because you’ve observed him and he has “natural grace.”
by ol Pete on Oct 29, 2008 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
why are you putting words in my mouth?
The flip side of that is you believe that Upton will improve because you’ve observed him and he has "natural grace".
Upton’s strength in the OF is speed. His weakness is route-taking. One can be learned, especially by someone who’s been in the outfield for less than two years. Maybe he won’t. Whatever. He’s still better right now.
When most of the world thinks Fielder is a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate, most of what I will write as someone who think he’s worse will sound like I don’t like him. And anything I will write agreeing that he’s good will get lost in the shuffle.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 29, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
These are your words: Upton ranked ninth in last year’s center field top ten list and I’d be surprised if he didn’t crack the top five next year. His natural grace… "
Decent hitters who are crappy fielders have a hard time making it out of AAA.
by ol Pete on Oct 29, 2008 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
who are you kidding?
since when have teams valued defense more than offense?
by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 30, 2008 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Middle infielders until ten years ago
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Oct 30, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
since when:P
not anti-since when;)
by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 31, 2008 12:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd ignore you, but i don't like the dishonesty involved here
my full quote:
Upton ranked ninth in last year’s center field top ten list and I’d be surprised if he didn’t crack the top five next year. His natural grace has led many ignorant observers to believe he’s lazy in the field, but learning to take better routes is really all that stands between him and being a significantly above-average defender. And a healthy shoulder is all that stands between him and a return to 25+ homeruns.
Yes, I said he has natural grace. But I directly said that improving his routes is where he will improve.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 30, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like dishonesty either
You make it sound like something you’ve pointed out contradicts what I wrote. Parse to your heart’s content.
You also haven’t responded to the question of how someone who is a Rays fan has seen Fielder as much as he has seen Upton, but again, whatever.
Way over-rated, decent and crappy explain why you wouldn’t want anyone to trade much for him, but its a worthwhile context while you sling mathematical equation results for a series of estimations that suggest that your bias is absent.
by ol Pete on Oct 30, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct me if I'm wrong, Sky
But this is what I gathered from your quote:
Some people mistake his odd running style for laziness.
You say his odd running style is graceful, and should neither add, nor subtract from his value as a baseball player.
If this is true, you both agree that how a player runs shouldn’t affect their value or potential as a player.
by tcyoung on Oct 30, 2008 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the calculations may have errors, but they do not contain my personal bias
I live in New York without an MLB tv package. How many Rays games could I watch? And I would count the Brewers as one of my favorite NL teams. I loved the Cameron signing; does that give me Brew-cred?
http://skyking162.com/2008/01/mike-cameron-savior/
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 30, 2008 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The calculations can be completely errorless and still not be accurate. The choice of calculations can be biased as well. I got the impression that Bill James young talent list was based on statistics. He has a different estimation. Hell, I can look at some of Prince’s stats and feel like yelling at the guy. I wonder how many balls that were more than a foot out of the strike zone he swung at. Its probably a lot.
by ol Pete on Oct 30, 2008 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t buy the “learning his position” excuse, but I do agree that Upton will be a very good player. Still, the type of hitter that he is I don’t expect him to exceed the high-.700’s range for OPS (as an upper bound).
On the other hand, I see Fielder as capable of being a perennial .960+ hitter. Yes he isn’t a great fielder, but let’s not forget that Fielder and Upton are essentially the same age. They’re both equally young and Fielder doesn’t have a huge edge over Upton in major league games played, so why does Upton get the automatic nod for potential?
If anything, going forward (as in long-term) I think traditionally accepted trends would anticipate a significant gain in power for Fielder and a decline in speed for Upton.
Are these ‘projections’ of mine entirely arbitrary? Yes, of course. But let’s not kid ourselves about the scientific accuracy of something like Marcels.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Oct 29, 2008 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I forgot to add
Something that’s being ignored in this discussion is the plain marketability of the two. The sport is, after all, eventually just about the teams making money. Regardless of who ‘earns more win shares’ on paper, most fans are a lot more eager to see a portly home-run hitting 1B than a multi-tool CF/2B.
Prince is going to be making quite a bit more money in the coming years, but I feel that lots of people underestimate this factor. Don’t think being a marketable ‘face of the franchise’ has any impact? Look how much Jeter still makes…
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Oct 29, 2008 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, and BJ's projection is against AL pitchers giving him another half-win advantage in production
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 29, 2008 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
Although I was guessing a $10 million arby salary, I saw somewhere an expectation that Prince will cost $6-8 million next season.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Oct 29, 2008 7:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah. He’s not making ten million. If he had fifty again this year… then maybe.
by HRF on Oct 29, 2008 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holy Crap
Ryan Howard turns 30 next year! I thought he was much younger. (Prince turned 24 in May.)
Also, although you hear how bad a fielder Fielder is, both he and Ryan Howard have a .990 career fielding percentage. Prince’s .988 FP is only .001 off of last season, and the same as that for Howard.
At any rate, I was comparing Prince to Howard. (Ryan Howard went to arby last February - the Phils offered $7 million, and Howard was awarded $10 million). In looking at their numbers, Prince is a step behind Howard, without a doubt - heck, Howard has averaged 51 HRs over the last three seasons. Still…I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Fielder get $8 million.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Oct 29, 2008 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think six is the realistic figure, and eight would be fair for both sides.
by HRF on Oct 29, 2008 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yay fielding percentage
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 29, 2008 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ditto to Jeffs…
In fact I would even say that some people overvalue Prince. That is why they think that he is worth Lincecum straight up.
In Milwaukee’s market, GM’s have two options with their players – sign them to Ryan Braun style deals… or trade them at their peak to get max return. From a fans perspective it sucks because we just bought that Gabe Gross jersey and now he is gone – or everyone wheres #8 because he will still be with the team (or at least on their payroll) for 7 more years.
by Saberilliterate on Oct 29, 2008 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK – sorry bad example
Scott Podsednek?
Carlos Lee
Damian Miller
Pat Listach
Gary Sheffield
et all
by Saberilliterate on Oct 29, 2008 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be like buying an Estrada jersey.
I endorse Blengino.
by Jordan M on Oct 29, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would've
If I was allowed to make the number 144.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Oct 29, 2008 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
particularly good thing
you’re not an Aaron Miles fan.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 29, 2008 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
does he have a very square stance?
by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 29, 2008 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
He’s not a congressman.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 29, 2008 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Someone who's got no one to blame but themselves.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 29, 2008 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd do it straight up,
based on Jeff’s #2 reason alone, not to him being miffed last spring, knowing he’d get Howard-like money this winter. I don’t think the Rays’d do it though; even if from a talent standpoint they would, they can’t really afford 10 mil on 1 guy, not averaging 8000 fans a game. Q-tips watch baseball on TV.
by kgaul on Oct 28, 2008 9:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Who replaces Prince if we trade him?
Gamel? Joe Dillon? Rivera?
I know people on here like Rivera, but I don’t think he’s good enough to be an everyday starter.
by tcyoung on Oct 28, 2008 9:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Gamel in the second half, maybe
I’ll bet if Prince is traded, we sign a couple of quad-A types — maybe Josh Phelps — or maybe a veteran defensive specialist like Minky, and spring training is a tryout with those guys + Gamel + Brad Nelson maybe.
Or the trade brings somebody more credible back.
Important to remember that “replacement level” at first base is
a) better than that of just about any other position — i.e. phelps is a better hitter than random quad-A center fielder guy
b) probably easier to find, since there are so many 1B/OF/DH types who can mash but aren’t quite good enough to start in the bigs.
If new manager guy is willing to be creative (the first of many times I’ll say that, and the first of many times I’ll set myself up for disappointment), I’ll bet that a scrap-heap platoon could be pretty decent. Most championship teams end up punting one “offensive” position — getting decent production for the minimum, like the Rays have done at RF, kinda like the Phils at 3B. Last year’s BoSox aren’t a great example, but look at the ’04 sox — cheap but productive at 1st base, same (NIxon/Kapler) at RF.
I’m digressing here, but long story short: You can be respectable at offensive positions for cheap. But if you don’t spend money/develop prospects at defensive positions, you get a sinkhole of suck.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 28, 2008 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't that be kind of counter productive?
One of the big reasons people are giving for trading prince, is that his defense is poor. Since First Base is a position where players that can’t play defense are usually just ‘plopped’ down at, it seems like we will be lacking defense at first base no matter what body we put there.
I understand the money argument, but it doesn’t make sense to me to trade players at positions where there is not much of a replacement.
by tcyoung on Oct 28, 2008 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really.
1B isn’t a premier defensive position, as you said. Although offensive production might be difficult to replace, it isn’t as hard as replacing adequate production from other positions.
I think Fielder/Upton would be horrible for Tampa, but if Friedman were drunk enough to offer such a deal, the Brewers should take it. If the Brewers can get quality young pitching, CF, or a 3B for Fielder, they should without a doubt take the deal.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Oct 28, 2008 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
depends who you're plopping
There’s a difference between not being able to play defense and not being able to play defense at other positions. Braun can’t play third base, but move him to an easier position and he’s fine.
I don’t have any idea about Josh Phelps’s defense at first, but he was originally a catcher. (True of a fair number of quad-A 1Bs, actually.) To take another example, Gamel may turn out to be similar to Braun — can’t play third, but is just fine (or even better) elsewhere.
Point being, taking the whole package—offense and defense—you can throw darts at the PCL offensive leaders and find a replacement. Ultimately, if we do something like Fielder for Cain, straight up, we’re essentially making this trade:
Fielder at 1B, crappy fifth starter (McClung in rotation instead of bullpen? Narveson? Who the hell knows after somebody gets injured?)
for
Cain in rotation, Nelson/Branyan/Gamel/whatever at 1B.
Personally, I make that move. Every day of the week. (Unless there’s something I don’t know about Cain’s health.)
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 28, 2008 11:35 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If Sabean is dumb enough to offer Cain for Fielder, of course the deal should go down.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Oct 29, 2008 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
SF would have to throw in someone else in that deal. If the brewers lose CC and Ben why trade Prince the second best hitter on the team for Cain when that still doesn’t greatly improve the pitching staff and weakens our offense.
by pjpaulus on Oct 30, 2008 2:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are really underestimating Matt Cain.
Cain is cheaper. Much cheaper. His salary is already set, and it will undoubtedly be less than Fielder’s. And, starting pitching is in much larger of a demand than 1B/DH is (Fielder is a DH with a glove, I’ll say it).
How does Cain not “greatly” improve the pitching staff? He isn’t an ace, but he’s a solid #2 guy. Gallardo is still inexperienced, having a sure-fire horse and stud really bolsters the rotation. Cain is better than any Brewers starter who is definitely coming back next year. Hell, I’d say he has more value than Sheets since he can stay healthy.
Cain is worth more than Fielder, not less.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Oct 30, 2008 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
even ignoring years/salary, Cain is a more productive player. although, everything being equal, I’d rather have the position player over the pitcher.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 30, 2008 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you'd rather have the position player over the pitcher.
Sorry – average position players are easier to come by than average pitchers. Want proof… Jeff Suppan – $40,000,000.
The hard part is dumping/trading average position players because “he has potential”
by Saberilliterate on Oct 30, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Average position players are not easier to come by than average pitchers.
they’re just not in as high of a demand.
Teams need more starting pitchers throughout a season than they do players at any given position, which increases the demand of pitchers, and thus causes the market price for pitchers to increase. Add in the higher injury turnover for pitchers, and that is what causes the market price to inflate.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Oct 30, 2008 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
and also think that people think an average pitcher is better than they really are. and teams tend to chase league-average ERAs instead of league-average skills, adding to their disappointment.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 30, 2008 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
huh....
Average position players are not easier to come by than average pitchers. they’re just not in as high of a demand.
Sorry – but the economics side of my brain is going haywire….
average pitchers are in higher demand but are just as easy to find??
Yep – that lost me…
A team needs 11-13 position players and 11-13 pitchers….ummm need just as many of one as the other…
by Saberilliterate on Oct 31, 2008 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but when you blanket "position player" to include all positions.
they…in general…aren’t as much of in demand as pitchers (especially starting pitchers), but when you pick and choose positions, it varies.
“Average” first basemen and left fielders are lesser in demand than “average” shortstops and centerfielders are. If Aaron Rowand was a left fielder, not even Brian Sabean would have been stupid enough to give him that big contract.
A team can live with below average production from 1-2 of its positions on a daily basis, but below average production from 1-2 of their starting pitchers, and they’re in some trouble.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 1, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"all else being equal"
my reasoning was that position players are more predictable; you can count on them retaining more of their value 3-5 years down the road, partially due to injury concerns.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 30, 2008 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point was that Cain pitching once every five days doesn’t make up for losing Prince’s bat everyday. If the Brewers do lose CC and Sheets in my opinion its the offense and not the starting pitching that would need to carry the team. I don’t think its smart to fill one hole in the starting pitching rotation by subtracting one of the Brewers best bats.
by pjpaulus on Nov 1, 2008 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The amount of impact a SP plays and that of a position player are equal
Your starting pitcher is the first defender, the chief preventor of opposing runs.
He plays a HUGE impact every 5th day, while the position player plays a small impact every day. Total impacts are pretty much the same, when the position player and the pitcher are of equal value.
Assuming everything else is equal, pitchers are worth just as much as position players.
Cain is still worth more than Fielder in terms of performance.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 1, 2008 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you don't like Fielder
are you going to go on about that more? Pena is a better hitter, he’s an awful fielder, he’s a clubhouse cancer. He’s worth a pitcher who is a #3 or #4 et cetera.
Where do you live?
by ol Pete on Nov 1, 2008 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would take Cain or Garza over Fielder. That decision becomes more evident when looking at their contract statuses
One extra year of a player like Fielder/Garza, etc is worth 8-10++MM on the open market. For any team with a small payroll, like the Brewers, Rays, etc, that’s kind of a big deal.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 1, 2008 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hate this argument
count up a hitters’ plate appearances and a starter’s batters faced. the pitcher has more. now, the hitter contributes in the field and the pitcher is only 3/4 of the defense (fielders), but it still comes out pretty even. the best hitters tend to be more productive than the best pitchers, but each pair deserves individual comparison. if you run the numbers, Cain’s about a win more productive than Fielder going forward.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 2, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
1 win
Based on an very long series of estimates, many of unknown accuracy.
by ol Pete on Nov 2, 2008 5:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ugh
There is a reason they are estimates. If we knew the dang future, we wouldn’t have to play the games. Every time someone makes an evaluation or prediction, you point this out.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
by Jordan M on Nov 2, 2008 9:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
why then are they referred to as measurements?
I mean really. How many estimates in a string are necessary before someone actually uses language that isn’t certain?
“Running the numbers” is stringing together estimates that are themselves a series of estimates. They also include conceptually questionable attempts like zone ratings. After all that, the outcome is extremely close, but it doesn’t appear in the comment. Rather he declares something that very likely isn’t so.
by ol Pete on Nov 2, 2008 10:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
on anything i post in the future on this blog
please assume my implied error bars are a win or ten runs in either direction. i’m fully aware of the precision involved here.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 3, 2008 4:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
your language doesn't reflect it
your reasoning doesn’t either.
by ol Pete on Nov 3, 2008 7:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hell, i'm fine saying they're approximate equals in talent
My point still stands that the “starters only contribute once every five days” is dumb.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 3, 2008 4:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose if the price is right, you should make any deal.
To me, it makes sense to offer players from the other infield spots. With Escobar looming in the shadows, we have a viable replacement at those positions. So if we traded Weeks or Hardy, even though we wouldn’t get as good of a player in return as we would for fielder, we wouldn’t lose the production from the position we would be giving away.
But while we’re trading Fielder for Upton, why don’t the Bucks trade Dan Gadzuric for Dirk Nowitski?
by tcyoung on Oct 29, 2008 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
because they drafted him, then traded him for Robert "Tractor" Traylor
so it would be like admitting a big mistake, even if it’s horribly lopsided in your favor, and sports execs have “pride”, man.
by baumann on Oct 29, 2008 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you think Fielder is the equivalent of Dan Gadzuric, then yes they should trade him.
by ol Pete on Oct 29, 2008 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dan Gadzuric is not only the most overpaid basketball player in the league,
but possibly the worst. But that’s a thread for another blog.
How much trade value does Prince lose if we keep him next year and ship him out next offseason? Let’s assume he puts up numbers somewhere in between this year and last year.
by tcyoung on Oct 29, 2008 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say
how he performs will be affected significantly by his weight and his plate discipline. He’s shown in the past that he can lose weight – he really looks like he should drop 50 lbs or more. Being as productive as he has been really says there is a great athlete in there not that he’s unaffected by his weight. His defense has to be affected as well.
If swinging at eye high pitches is okay with the next manager, it’s a negative.
So thinner and playing with patience he has already demonstrated will be worth much more than even heavier with his demonstrated impatience. Mixing that with a calc-a-lation of one less year of arby years – I dunno honestly.
by ol Pete on Oct 29, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"depends who you're plopping"
is sig-worthy.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 29, 2008 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brad Nelson -
Still a LH bat and has experience in the minors…
by Saberilliterate on Oct 29, 2008 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a pretty good point
Melvin said he’d like another LH bat in the lineup.
by tcyoung on Oct 29, 2008 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there might even be a 1B replacement in the return package
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 29, 2008 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely not.
1. Fielder does not fill enough of a need for the Rays to go trade their starting CF (who is controlled for one more year than Prince is anyways). They can get someone to platoon with Aybar at DH pretty cheaply, much cheaper than trading a member of their core AND assuming additional salary (see below).
2. Arbitration has a tendency to value offense heavily over defense, see Ryan Howard. That being said, Fielder will command more than Upton will in arbi. It might not be significant to most teams, but to those teams with the lowest payrolls (such as the Rays), it could be a big deal. And, DH is an easier position to fill via FA than CF is. CF is a premier defensive position, and thus Upton is worth more than Fielder.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Oct 28, 2008 9:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
OK, so I have a trade question.
If the Marlins can get what looks like a pretty good reliever for Mike Jacobs, why can’t we do the same with Russell Branyan? I would venture to guess that Branyan could at least put up similar numbers to Jacobs.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on Oct 30, 2008 2:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Trading for anything except a top, top, top flight reliever is ridiculous. And, even then, the top flight relievers are so overvalued it makes little sense unless you’re trading from excess with one hole to fill to put the team truly over the top.
by HRF on Oct 30, 2008 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And, Leo Nunez is not a top flight reliever.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Oct 30, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Branyan's a free agent, for one
Also, Jacobs is under team control for a couple more (three?) years. Branyan has been signing one-year deals the past couple seasons. I guess someone could want to sign him to a three-year deal, but I don’t know who.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Oct 30, 2008 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you could make a decent case that Branyan would be just as good as Jacobs, if given the playing time.
However,
a) jacobs is 27, so there’s still room to dream about improvement (even if it isn’t smart to do so)
b) branyan has had injury problems, and he’s old enough for them to be really worrisome
c) jacobs hit 30 HRs and 90 RBIs!!!!!!!!!!!!!! with counting stats like that, you’ve gotta be good, right?
They’re pretty similar players, actually, just more Ks and Ws for Branyan.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 30, 2008 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
FYI - TAMPA DOESNT WANT FIELDER
Sorry to burst your bubble, but the Rays would not even consider trading BJ for Fielder. We would not do the trade straight up, we would not do it if you threw in someone else. BJ is not going anywhere. Maybe we would trade him for Jay Bruce or for his brother, but I dont see Cinci or Arizona going for that. You might as well find someone else to speculate about. Also, we already have a first baseman we like a lot so we are not interested in Fielder.
by Devil Ray on Nov 2, 2008 12:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for your feedback
we’ll be sure to check with you next time we want to talk about a player.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 2, 2008 2:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you gotta love inter-blog discussion
you can almost see the protectionist walls go up. sigh.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 2, 2008 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
your words
“… decisions about conduct and banning are entirely at our discretion, and the ground rules above may or may not apply to those decisions. We may suspend a user’s account any time we find that, in our judgment, it will make the site more enjoyable, more successful, and more fan-friendly overall. Usually, although not always, we will explain to a user why their contributions aren’t meshing with the site’s philosophy before taking any official measures.”
I get the general idea of your economic analogy. If you were to continue it, this statement sounds as if it is dictatorial and lawless.
by ol Pete on Nov 2, 2008 5:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My favorite part
is the sense that all Tampa Bay transactions have to go through “Devil Ray.”
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Nov 2, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not anymore
Since he disregarded the letter telling him to take “Devil” out of his name.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Nov 2, 2008 3:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Devil Ray - did Ken talk to you before he hired appointed Dale?
We could’ve used a second opinion on that one, maybe.
My favorite part as that D-Ray misses the point: there hasn’t been a ‘legit rumor’ about anything of this - it’s just speculation and discussion on the relative/comparative value of players - for fun. We’re just having fun, Devil Ray. We like Carlos Pena just fine too. BJ’s a nice player. Sorry we insulted you with our fantasies and hypotheticals.
by baumann on Nov 2, 2008 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you do any sports handicapping? Because I would like to fade your selections if you do.
by HRF on Nov 2, 2008 3:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jay Bruce and Justin Upton over prince?
Really?
They’re…..a couple years younger anyway…..
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on Nov 2, 2008 6:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bruce… that can go either way.
But Justin Upton? Hells yes he’s over Prince.
by HRF on Nov 2, 2008 7:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Justin - hell no
B.J. is debatable because of the defense especially at CF.
by ol Pete on Nov 2, 2008 9:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
…am I living on some fantasy world where Justin Upton isn’t the most valuable commodity in baseball since Ken Griffey Jr’s pre-arb years?
by HRF on Nov 2, 2008 11:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Braun is more valuable when considering contract situations.
Justin Upton hasn’t signed long-term.
Braun is more cost controlled, and thus more valuable. And, he’s young too, albeit not as young as Upton.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 3, 2008 11:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not considering contract situations
Braun is miles ahead of Justin Upton.
by ol Pete on Nov 3, 2008 11:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Plus, Braun was able to bounce back from an injury pretty easily – probably mostly because of his young age and peak physical condition. Would Upton be able to?
"If loving CC is wrong I do not want to be right"
"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender"
by kirbir on Nov 3, 2008 12:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was the rubdowns.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Nov 3, 2008 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we’re going to just agree to disagree.
by HRF on Nov 3, 2008 3:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and Evan Longoria
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 3, 2008 4:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Longoria > Braun, and it isn’t remotely close.
by HRF on Nov 3, 2008 5:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 4:31 PM CST)
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