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The 2009 Bullpen - What are we starting with?

So, barring a change of plans, Salomon Torres is gone and the Brewers are not planning to pursue a high-profile free agent reliever like Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes.

Salomon Torres, who saved 28 games for the Crew last season, retired yesterday. Brian Shouse, Eric Gagne and Guillermo Mota are free agents and might not be back.

Assuming Doug Melvin's comments linked above mean he also won't want to risk big money on Kerry Wood, Japanese import Koji Uehara or Trevor Hoffman, that might mean the Brewers are headed into 2009 with a bullpen that's tweaked around the edges, if it gets modified at all. Let's take a look at what that might mean for the Brewers in 2009:

CANDIDATES FOR CLOSER:

Seth McClung: I'm not sure if all Brewer fans love Seth McClung or if the infatuation is limited to this corner of the internet. But when Grant Balfour was 0-2 with a 20.25 ERA in his first three outings as a Brewer, if Doug Melvin had publicly said, "I'm going to flip him to Tampa for a guy that'll throw 105 slightly above average innings next season," we might have thrown the Mustache a parade. McClung has the stuff to make hitters look overmatched when he's on. If he's not needed in the rotation, he might be the best fit to close.

2008, as a reliever: 25 G, 41.2 IP, 3.67 ERA, 26 BB, 37 K
Career, as a reliever: 87 G, 109.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 80 BB, 93 K

Carlos Villanueva: Got an opportunity to start in 2008, but did not perform well. When reverted to the bullpen he showed improvement the rest of the way. Villy has said in the past that he'd prefer to start, but he's much more valuable to the Crew in the bullpen, and one would suspect that getting high profile innings as the closer of a good team might be exciting for him too.

2008, as a reliever: 38 G, 59.1 IP, 2.12 ERA, 14 BB, 62 K
Career, as a reliever: 95 G, 155.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 52 BB, 149 K

David Riske:  After getting a long-term deal after the 2007 season, Riske had an injury riddled and ineffective 2008 season that I'm sure most of you will remember. A lot can change in a year...a year ago at this time we were talking about David Riske as the setup man for Derrick Turnbow. 2008 aside, though, Riske had been very consistent throughout most of his eight year career before coming to Milwaukee, posting an ERA+ over 115 in six of his last seven seasons, over 190 in three of the same seven. If he comes into spring training healthy, he could be ready to bounce back in a big way.

2008, as a reliever: 45 G, 42.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, 25 BB, 27 K
Career, as a reliever: 438 G, 473.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 204 BB, 425 K

OTHERS THAT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE:

Mitch Stetter: As things stand right now, he's the only lefty I see with a guaranteed spot in the bullpen, and even that guarantee isn't 100%. I don't think one can hope for Stetter to be as effective as Shouse was, but if Shouse returns, having Stetter and Shouse in the bullpen could give Ken Macha lots of opportunity to play matchups late in games. Stetter's walk numbers from 2008 are inflated by three outings in May where he was left out to hang and walked 8 batters in an inning.

2008, as a reliever: 30 G, 25.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 19 BB, 31 K
Career, as a reliever: 36 G, 30.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 21 BB, 35 K

Tim Dillard: The Brewers didn't use Tim Dillard a lot in 2008 (just 14.1 innings), and they didn't use him often in wins (3-10 record in his appearances), but when they did use him he didn't embarrass himself. Dillard led off his big league career with five scoreless outings where he only allowed one hit and two walks in 5.2 innings, and he only had one outing all season where he gave up more than one earned run. Not once in my life have I said "Oh good, Tim Dillard's coming in." But with that said, he was only slightly below league average (ERA+ of 98) in his games this season, and if the Brewers released him he could be on about 15-20 teams' rosters on Opening Day.

2008 (and career) as a reliever: 13 G, 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 6 BB, 5 K

Todd Coffey: Seemingly an afterthought when Doug Melvin picked him up, Coffey threw 7.1 scoreless innings over nine appearances as a Brewer in 2008, dropping his 2008 ERA from 6.05 as a Red to 4.39 overall, which is close to his career mark of 4.46. For some reason, I thought he was much older: Coffey turned 28 in September. He's had two above average and two below average seasons in his career, but even the below average seasons were disappointments, not implosions. He can contribute to a staff somewhere, if not in Milwaukee.

2008 as a reliever: 26 G, 26.2 IP, 4.39 ERA, 8 BB, 15 K
Career as a reliever: 222 G, 213.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, 65 BB, 144 K

Mark DiFelice: DiFelice made his big league debut at age 31 in May, and his debut didn't suggest he'd stay long: DiFelice gave up three runs on five hits in an inning in one of the losses during the Brewers' disastrous sweep in Boston that was supposed to cost Ned Yost his job. After that, all DiFelice did was post a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings over his next 14 appearances. Like Dillard, he didn't pitch in a lot of Brewer wins (the team was 4-11 in his appearances), but he pitched effectively when called upon. And while he made his debut at 31 and turned 32 in August, he's still likely got a few seasons in the tank, if not more.

2008 (and career) as a reliever: 15 G, 19 IP, 2.84 ERA, 4 BB, 20 K

OTHERS THAT COULD BE CALLED UPON:

It's worth noting that at this point, without re-signing Shouse, Gagne or Mota, without Torres unretiring and without any free agent additions to the bullpen, the Brewers have 7 relievers and, assuming a five-man rotation, 12 pitchers overall. But if they need more, these guys are waiting for a shot:

Joe Bateman: A 28-year-old righty, Bateman tripped somewhere on the ladder to the big leagues and spent 2 years in AA with the Giants before splitting this season between AA and AAA with the Brewers, despite the fact that he's posted an ERA under 3 each of the last two seasons and posted a 1.60 ERA in 33.2 innings in half a season in Nashville in 2008. He's struck out 200 and only walked 66 over 175.2 innings over the last three seasons. This winter, he's pitching for Este in the Dominican Winter League, and is 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 14 innings.

Chris Narveson: Last spring, he didn't miss making the Brewer roster by all that much, and made Doug Melvin comfortable enough to cut the cord on Claudio Vargas. Narveson will come into camp at 27 years old and, despite having a disappointing season in AAA (6-13, 5.43 ERA in 136 innings, primarily as a starter), he could get a shot to reinvent himself as a lefty who throws strikes out of the bullpen. Narveson has walked just 168 hitters over his last 406.2 innings over four seasons in AAA, and struck out 311 in that time. And did I mention he's left handed? Narveson is spending the winter pitching for Hermosillo in Mexico, where he recently picked up his second straight win, and is 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 34.1 innings (6 starts).

Luis Pena: In 2007, Pena climbed the ladder quickly, going 5-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 18 saves between Brevard County and Huntsville and earning himself a promotion to Nashville for 2008. He struggled with the Pacific Coast League, though, going 2-3 with a 6.93 ERA in 49.1 innings in 2008. Pena's meteoric rise in 2007 followed two seasons with an ERA over 4 in Brevard County, so it's possible his 2007 season was an aberration and not a trend. But it's also possible he could put it back together in 2008 and emerge as a contributor. He's spending the winter pitching for La Guaira in Venezuela, but has only appeared in three of the team's 23 games.

Sam Narron: Stop me if you've heard this one before: Narron is a 27-year-old lefty who has taken a little longer to develop than expected. He had a meteoric rise through the Rangers' organization, culminating in a 2004 season in which he went 6-0 in AA, 8-2 in AAA and made one start for the Rangers. After the season, the Brewers picked him up off waivers and Tommy John surgery cost him the entire 2005 season. Narron has worked his way back up the ladder and spent much of 2008 in AAA, where he struggled a bit to adjust and posted a 4.80 ERA in 120 innings. Like Joe Bateman, Narron is pitching for Este in the Dominican Winter League (Narron is starting, Bateman is relieving). So far he hasn't had much success in winter ball, going 0-3 with a 7.82 ERA in 12.2 innings, but again: he's still only 27, and he's lefthanded.

With those four, the Brewers will bring 11 potential bullpen arms to spring training, plus any free agents they may sign or re-sign. I don't think this bullpen is going to be as bad as some are saying it will be. What do you think?

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Don't forget about Randy Choate

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 13, 2008 12:11 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think Choate is a free agent

and a big waste of money last year.

by jeffro53081 on Nov 13, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Since we're talking about relief pitching.

I found this article interesting and helps explain why Shouse has been so good for us the past couple years.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Nov 13, 2008 12:48 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

the Brewers have 7 relievers and, assuming a five-man rotation, 12 pitchers overall.

There’s only four starters under contract right now, so you might have to throw Clung into the rotation and bump somebody up from the “others” list. If they sign someone to start, that statement is right.

Overall, I agree that it’s not going to be as bad as most people are thinking.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 13, 2008 1:09 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

At the moment

I feel like they’ll add one pitcher, most likely a starter, from the bottom of the second tier. It most likely won’t be Sabathia, but when the initial frenzy is over and a guy like Sheets or Garland is still sitting out there, they’ll make an offer.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 13, 2008 1:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Depth could be an issue

The eleven options above are decent enough for cobbling together a seven-man bullpen, but the team will probably need at least a dozen relievers throughout the season. It’s those extra guys that could really make the bullpen look bad. I’d be kind of surprised if they look at Narveson, Narron or DiFelice as anything more than long relievers during spring, so those three are kind of fighting for one spot. I think they might go after one of the lesser relievers on the market, and the list of non-roster invites to spring training will no doubt have a lot of pitchers on it.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Nov 13, 2008 2:21 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

really it seems like a lot of nice pieces

closer is the big question mark though. I have a hard time picturing any of those players as closers, but maybe I’m mentally stuck on the prototypical hard thrower with experience to handle the pressure of the 9th.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Melvin already had someone in mind.

by ol Pete on Nov 13, 2008 2:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

say it with me

fast eddie guardado!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 13, 2008 2:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually:

Bill James is really high on Guardado for 2009:

His projection, available at FanGraphs: 52 IP, 3.78 ERA, 16 BB, 43 K

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 13, 2008 3:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't looked closely at BJ's 09 projections, but...

in the past, he’s been on the high side on nearly everybody. Don’t ask me why, but his system seems to be built to make fans of every team happy.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 13, 2008 6:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Troll!

Who are you? A Cubs fan, no doubt. I’m flagging you, Buster Brown.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 13, 2008 7:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't work last year

This time, hopefully. He’d be another guy, like Hoffman, that would be a solid “closer” and allow the Brewers to use better pitchers in higher leverage situations.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 13, 2008 3:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hoffman and Tony Gwynn Jr on the Brewers.

Surely this team is the work of Becky Moores.

by Braun Holio on Nov 13, 2008 7:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He Who Shall Not Be Named

is suggesting Kerry Wood might become an option.

by James Stanley Cocanower on Nov 13, 2008 3:38 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting thought

But would you rather invest $10 mil for probably 2-3 years for an injury-prone relief pitcher and give up a first round draft pick, or would you rather spend about $5 million more and bring back Sheets and bank the first round pick?

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 13, 2008 5:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

#2

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 13, 2008 5:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Me too!

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 13, 2008 6:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, but...

if you don’t sign wood, and you resign Sheets, you net zero picks.

if you DO sign wood, and Sheets goes elsewhere, you give up a pick, you get picks … actually, you net one supplemental pick.

I doubt this is what the authors of the CBA intended, but the more roster churn, the more picks.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 13, 2008 6:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I never thought of it that way.

Interesting. Though I would take Sheets in that hypothetical.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 13, 2008 8:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No kidding
  • Our best pitcher has a total of 130 innings under his belt, and is probably more an upper-echelon #2 starter than a #1.
  • Our second-best pitcher has a career WHIP over 1.50.
  • Our third-best pitcher…actually pitched well last year: if Dave Bush can repeat a 4.18 ERA, I’d be pretty happy.
  • Our fourth-best pitcher is Jeff Suppan. Boy, I wish I didn’t just look up his stats right now.

Having said that, if we were to get a legitimate #1 pitcher…with Gallardo as #2, Parra as #3, Bush as #4, and Suppan as #5 (or kicked to the bullpen)…that’s not so bad. Maybe not a top-of-the-NL rotation, but we’d hold our own, I think.

Until injuries strike, that is.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 13, 2008 4:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

130 innings

better than our best player being a pirate.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 13, 2008 6:54 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

Rec'd.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 13, 2008 7:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Suck up.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 13, 2008 7:25 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Nov 13, 2008 8:53 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 13, 2008 9:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Flagged

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 14, 2008 9:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just a minor disagreement on the first bulletpoint

Otherwise I agree with you. But how many teams have a true, absolutely indebatable #1 starter/Ace.
Every team calls their best starter an “ace”, but there are, in reality very few of that type of pitcher in the league.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Nov 13, 2008 8:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No, that's true

I’d say there are, maybe, 5-10 starting pitchers in the NL that are “better” (however you define that) than Gallardo. I guess if you were to compare each NL team’s “ace,” Gallardo would fall right in the middle of the pack. (This is based on performance alone, excluding things like salary and how long he’s under our control).

I wasn’t intentionally thinking about this, but I guess I’m thinking 2009 playoffs. If we get a “true” #1 starter and bump everyone down a notch, I think we’d have a chance in any series. If we don’t and Gallardo is our #1, I think we’re outmatched by other playoff contenders. (I guess you can say that about most teams, though.)

Another scary thing to think about is that we don’t have much depth for starting pitching. If someone gets hurt…

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 13, 2008 9:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If someone gets hurt...

You get a trip through the rotation like this: Rick Helling, Chris Capuano, Zach Jackson, Dave Bush, Geremi Gonzalez?

I, for one, cannot understand how the lineup in that Rick Helling start was held scoreless.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Nov 13, 2008 11:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He gave then Ricking Hell?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 14, 2008 6:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

BARNWELL!

I think there was one trip through the rotation that year that had 4/5 pitchers acquired as a result of the Sexson trade. Cappy, Jackson, Bush, De la Rosa with Davis as the only exception.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 14, 2008 9:10 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If someone gets hurt...

I was joking around with a friend about Curt Schilling’s indecision about retiring in 2009—the whole “I may come back in the middle of the season”—and, of course, Doug Melvin is the guy who apparently got the O’s to ask for Schilling in the Boddicker trade back in ’88. So Doug M just may want him back as yet another reclamation project. So this is what I came up with for exactly why that would happen:

“Gallardo dislocated his kneecap—apparently little Yo left some Duplo out in the living room—and then DiFelice threw out his back picking up the ball bag during BP, and Bush forgot how to pitch, Gulin totally crapped the bed in his last start, and we can’t call up Narron because he pulled something trying to stretch out a single down in Nashville. Villy’s doing fine but we really don’t know what the hell is going to happen, and I hear that Ken’s been tying McClung down in the dugout
when he’s not pitching so he won’t get hurt, so can you PLEASE sign this contract?”

(I forgot to account for Narveson, Bateman, and whatever else is potentially lurking on the AAA horizon.)

This isn’t saying I want Schilling. The Brewers already have a perfectly good Mark DiFelice for that sort of thing.

by morineko on Nov 14, 2008 12:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So! McClung's the closer, then?

As much as I have faith in McClung, is the larger Brewers fandom basing their enthusiasm for him entirely on 9/26/08? He’s got the stuff, and Melvin is right about him throwing too many pitches as a starter (not like anyone should have been surprised by that) but I keep thinking about how scared he looked in April and I’m so, so not sure that this is going to work.

I think you’re right that his long-term fanbase is mostly here at BCB, BTW.

by morineko on Nov 14, 2008 12:19 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

My point

By listing three players as potential closers, I wanted to make sure I made the point that it’s not a given that McClung will close, and that a case could be made for Villanueva or Riske to do it.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 14, 2008 6:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

of the 3

mcclung seems the most closer-ish. say, has there been a knuckleballery closer?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 14, 2008 6:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Dan Quisenberry threw a knuckleball occasionally

Throwing one of those sidearm seems almost unfair.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Nov 14, 2008 10:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I obviously don't remember him

but I’ve heard about Doug Jones gritting out 30+ saves with a low 80s fastball, if that counts.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 14, 2008 11:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Low 80's is very generous.

I’ve heard stories of scouts watching him get guys out in the minors without reaching 70.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 14, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hoyt Wilhelm, for one.

But I can’t come up with a recent one.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 14, 2008 12:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Tim Wakefield

15 saves in 1999.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 14, 2008 3:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you—I’d rather have one of the other two. I was just addressing the fact that everyone else on the planet (save for Doug Melvin) seem to think it’s a given already. Not you.

(…and you know me and my subject obsession XD)

by morineko on Nov 14, 2008 10:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I hate the concept of a “closer”. Closers should be firemen.

by HRF on Nov 14, 2008 1:34 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

but then

who would we get to pitch the 9th inning? :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 14, 2008 6:59 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

And without knowing who will pitch the 9th

How will we know who to pitch in the 8th? And without that, how will we know who to pitch in the seventh? It’ll be anarchy.

by Getting Yosted on Nov 14, 2008 8:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Stetter/Shouse

I thought it was uncommon to have two lefty specialists in the bullpen. As we already have Stetter, I wonder how hard we’ll try to bring back Shous-ie.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 14, 2008 11:00 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

If Shouse comes back

And I’m assuming he will until his name appears on a contract somewhere else, would it surprise anyone to see him used (misused?) as a full inning guy, with Stetter being used as a primary LOOGY?

It seems to me like, with a rotation of Gallardo/Parra/Bush/Suppan/????, the Crew is going to need a lot of bullpen innings, perhaps too much so to have two guys in the pen who only pitch 35-40 innings on 70 appearances.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 14, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

When Stetter was sent down at the end of spring training in '08

His instructions were supposedly to learn to get righties out so he could be a full inning guy.

Actually, in his career lefties hit him at .170/.316/.298, and righties hit him at .151/.352/.245, but he’s only faced about 130 big league plate appearances, so there’s a sample size issue there.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 14, 2008 12:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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