Milwaukee Apples and New York Oranges: Why CC Might Pass on the Yankees' Offer

by roguejim on Nov 18, 2008 1:57 PM CST Comment 42 comments

In today's Mug, Ol Pete referred to Peter Abraham's take on the CC Sweepstakes:

It has been nearly five days since the Yankees made him a record-setting offer and not one other team has stepped forward with a rebuttal. The only other offer on the table is the paltry (ha!) $100 million from Milwaukee.

The biggest thing that has bothered me between this comparison is the 6th year. The Yankees' offer is for 6 years, $140 million, whereas the Brewers is allegedly for $100 million over 5 years. I think people get caught up in the 140/100 numbers, whereas the big difference to me is the 6/5.

Right now, the Yankees are offering CC an average of $23.333 million a season, whereas the Brewers' offer is $20 million a season. In this comparison, the per-season numbers don't seem so far apart.

In fact, let's say that the Brewers respond with a 6th year for $22 million. The difference between the two offers then becomes $3 million per season. That may be a lot to me and you and the Rally Lobster, but in MLB-Land, that's about 3/5ths of a 2009 Kapler. When you're making $22 million a season, you can lose $3 million in the cushions on your couch.

This is especially on-point if you take the big guy at his word:

I loved it here. It's one of the most fun times I've had in my life. It was definitely a blessing to be traded here.

Now signing pitchers to long-term contracts is fraught with peril (see Zito, Barry). What I'm unclear about is the danger in going to a 6th year when you're already at 5 (especially when the Brewers would undoubtedly buy insurance on him). I'm assuming it's all injury risk related --- at the end of the deal, he'd still be only 33/34 years old. (And it's worth mentioning that it might be academic, as the Yankees could simply raise their offer to well past the Brewers' means.)

However, I think he truly liked playing for the Brewers, which could be a big advantage we'd have over the Yankees --- I'd go so far to say that as long as the money is close, he'd choose us. That probably won't happen so long that the difference is between $140 million and $100 million. But if we're talking $23.3 million versus $20.3 million...I think he might stick with Cream City, and pass on the Yankees' record-setting offer.

So what do you think: how big is the leap to go from the 5th year to a 6th year? Would that be enough to keep you from pursuing CC? Be sure to check out the poll, and let long-time BCB reader* Doug Melvin know what you think.

__________

*This has not been proven to be true.

Poll

If adding a 6th year to CC Sabathia's contract offer were enough to dramatically up the odds of him re-signing with the team, would you do it?

Absolutely yes!

120 votes

Yes...but reluctantly.

112 votes

No --- 6 years is too much.

47 votes

No way --- anything beyond 3 or 4 years is too risky.

38 votes

317 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

My biggest point, which I didn't really stress

is that with contract offers, especially those by the Brewers, it’s usually about “can we afford X million dollars to this player,” and oftentimes, we’ll be outbid by not only the Yankees, but even medium-sized-market clubs. If we’re already “comfortable” with $20 million/season, then adding the 6th year shouldn’t be THAT traumatic.

Or, if this doesn’t work, we can offer $150 million over 10 years. At least then, we’d be offering CC the most money.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 18, 2008 1:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

James Stanley Cocanower

I wish he would just sign with the Yankees so we could move on. I loved CC as a Brewer, but its over. Even were he to sign to the current offer, I think it would turn out to be a Brewers mistake (though heart over brain would have me excited.) The Brewers just can’t have this much payroll tied up in one player.

I’d much rather sign Kerry Wood, Sheets to an incentive-laden two-year, and somebody like Smoltz or the Unit for a one-year deal. Give me Bobby Abreu too, while you’re at it. Tell the Yanks to sign Abreu and we’ll trade them Cam.

by James Stanley Cocanower on Nov 18, 2008 2:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

You might be right

Though I don’t see many one- or two-year deals coming down the pike for any of the players you mentioned, even Sheets. Heck, I bet Gabe Kapler gets 3+ years. :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 18, 2008 2:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Despite the elbow problems...

… I don’t think an incentive laden 2-3 year deal for Sheets is even going to get his attention. Someone’s going to offer him 48 million over 3 years, or thereabouts, and I sure as hell hope it ain’t us. I suspect it might be though. Sabathia signs with New York or LA, Peavy lands in Chicago, Brewer Nation curses the Gods, and Melvin panics and throws an offer at Sheets, and we spend the next three seasons holding our breath every time Sheets takes the mound.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 18, 2008 5:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be intrigued by the opposite direction

shrink the 5 year, $100 million deal to 4 years, $100 million. Of course the Yankees probably offer 6, 150 then.

Thanks for the probably false optimism, though.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 18, 2008 3:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I like that idea better too, but I doubt it will be enough.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 18, 2008 5:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree with this completely

at least this might give CC pause to say—well, I think I’ll still be awesome in four years plus salaries will have gone up, so I can make 25 a year for four years and then reenter the market when 25 a year isn’t such a big deal.

in addition, the Union would have less to argue with CC about if he takes the biggest dollars on the table. the rare times when you see players turn down the biggest offer occur when they decide to bet on themselves and take a shorter deal.

the problem with this, of course, is that the Yankees may be able to say “look, if its four years you want, we’ll give you 4—at $120 million.”

by James Stanley Cocanower on Nov 19, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What's a CC worth?

If they go into next year without improving the starting pitching, they are looking at 2006 attendance levels. If they bring back CC, they probably break this year’s attendance mark by a couple hundred thousand. If you assume the average fan spends $10 above the ticket price in parking and concessions, you are looking at marginal revenue of about $24 mil by signing CC. It almost sells itself.

Plus, I assume the TV deal will be come up for renewal by the end of the CC deal, which won’t be a bad thing if CC continues to deliver eyeballs.

by Getting Yosted on Nov 18, 2008 3:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

And when/if the Brewers fall on their face?

The Brewers will probably storm out of the gates with good attendance numbers next year no matter what. Sign CC, probably last a little longer. But the minute we fall on our faces, you will see attendance plummet and then your math gets all kinds of fuzzy.

I’d love CC as a Brewer, but we are pretty much putting a lot of the franchise in one basket.

by SgtClueLs on Nov 18, 2008 3:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think the attendance is going to fall, we made the playoffs and most of the casual fans will come back regardless

saying it will drop to 2006 levels is somewhat rediculous

"Cubs fans boo again – 99% of these people can’t see the plate." -Ueck

by dux2bux on Nov 18, 2008 6:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

2006 was the year they were going to breakthru

The hype and excitement were pretty big. Then the team was a huge disappointment and finished under .500. If they don’t address their starting pitching, they will be under .500 next season and those 40K+ afternoon games in July and August will be 20-25K.

by Getting Yosted on Nov 19, 2008 11:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lets do some math to figure out how much more attendance can go up before we spend that money.

To increase attendance by a few hundred thousand, the Brewers will have to average a ‘sell out’ every home game.

With 81 home games, if they average 42K/game, that puts them at 3.4M. Last year they did 3.068M with only a handful of games under 40K. And I just don’t see 42K fans on a Tuesday night game to play the Reds…

Last year there were only 12 games under 30k (23,478 was the lowest) and 46 of 81 games had attendance greater than 40k with 13 of them greater than 44k. That leaves 25 games for any notable improvement. How many are mid-week afternoon games. Unlike Cubs fans – Most Brewer Fans have jobs. We can’t get liquored up on a Thursday afternoons every week. And for the first 2-1/2 months of the season, until school gets out, it is hard as a parent to go to a mid-week night game where you don’t get home until 11.

And while CC will sell out for his 18 or so home starts regardless… 3-3.1M fans for an entire season is very close to the limit.

by Saberilliterate on Nov 19, 2008 8:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

you can be sure

that there are people crunching those numbers. They get revenue from other places as well. I have no idea how significant they are or even what they all are. The obvious would include “merch” and TV revenue.

There would also be in-house advertising (or whatever they call ads in Miller Park), luxury box prices and value of the franchise. I’m not saying those would all jump by signing CC, but they would all be positively affected by fielding a competitive, playoff team.

by ol Pete on Nov 19, 2008 9:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Where does the union factor into this?

Sabathia has the potential to sign the biggest deal ever for a pitcher. Does the union’s pressure on him to take the biggest deal and set the gold standard tilt the scales even more in New York’s favor?

If Sabathia waits to sign until after Teixeira gets his 6/$150 deal, does the pressure go down?

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 18, 2008 4:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I understand the argument

though it sounds like before any FA chooses to sign with any team, they have to check with New York first.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 18, 2008 4:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I say we up the offer to 25 million per year on the following condition:

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 18, 2008 5:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oops... on THIS following condition:

Every year for the duration of Sabathia’s contract, one steel-toed boot wearing Brewer fan gets to kick Don Fehr in the balls.

We pay for the difference in his contract by holding a lottery to select the fan who gets to do it and charging $5 per ticket. I’d buy 10 tickets right now. If Fehr doesn’t like that idea, then he can tell his boys to stop pushing Sabathia to play and live in a place he clearly prefers to avoid.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 18, 2008 5:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

I thought you were being clever. :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 18, 2008 6:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope.

Just bitter and angry, like usual. I’m better at that than cleverness.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 18, 2008 11:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Where do I buy tickets?

by Saberilliterate on Nov 19, 2008 8:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Why not?

Hopefully CC is a mortal man (when not pitching in the regular season) and actually considers things beyond the bright lights and insane money. Make Milwaukee home, CC. Why not? The Tankees can buy a world series but they can’t buy the excitement we have in Miller Park. Their new stadium will open to a team of has-beens that won’t make the play-offs anyways. Oh yes, I am bitter.

by One-Flap Down on Nov 18, 2008 4:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Actually, the Yankees apparently CAN'T buy a world series.

Their run a decade or so ago was mostly done with home-grown talent and their attempts to buy a championship team since have fallen hilariously short of the mark.

I do occasionally wonder if Bud asks Hank to act like an ass. Bad guys sell tickets too, after all.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 18, 2008 5:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

chatter from Gammons

Maybe it’ll be as simple as the Yankees’ blowing everyone away on Sabathia with their opening bid, which could convince the Dodgers and Angels that they’ll never be able to match the offer. Those teams instead would refocus on signing Ramirez and Teixeira, respectively. Yet the logic behind Hank Steinbrenner’s announcement of the offer could be to scare others away.

But scaring people won’t happen. Sabathia is in no rush. He went to a high school football game outside Houston on Saturday with Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson and other friends. And whether Steinbrenner realizes it or not, Sabathia will give the West Coast teams every opportunity to make him an offer that his family lifestyle cannot refuse. Signing him will take a while.

Sabathia is fascinated by the Dodgers and the Angels, and knowing the Dodgers are in it offers him the chance to make due diligence on his opportunities for his financial and familial futures. It’s clear this weekend, as he relaxes with friends, that he isn’t stirred up by the immediate frenzy.

Sabathia more likely impacts the Dodgers-Ramirez negotiations more than the Angels-Teixeira talks, although Boston’s jumping in early on Teixeira is a story line that right now is hard to follow.

I wonder how much stuff is on hold till he figures out what to do. That is if Gammons is right about all this.

by ol Pete on Nov 18, 2008 4:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

and the wheels start turning

at the sister site in Dodger town.

by ol Pete on Nov 18, 2008 4:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

COST OF LIVING

It is a huge adjustment from Milwaukee to New York. Cost of living in Milwaukee, WI is 42.9% less then NY, NY.

In other words making $20 million in Milwaukee is the equivalent of making $35 million in New York…

And making $23.3 million in New York is the equivelant of making $13.3 million in Milwaukee…

Granted he has a place in California. But BIG difference

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Nov 18, 2008 5:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry...

cost of living doesn’t apply at the same rate to someone in his position.

The biggest difference, probably, is NY/NYC taxes, which are (I believe) the worst in the nation. But in terms of housing, etc., we’re talking about him spending, say, $5,000/mo. on a crash pad in the city instead of, what, $3,000 on a similar situation in Milwaukee? He’s certainly not going to spend every after-tax dollar in either place, not like someone who’s weighing a $60k offer in MKE and a $100k offer in NYC and thinking about where they should buy a house and raise their kids.

Anyway, I hate cost of living numbers in the first place. They are like inflation figures — they assume people buy the same stuff regardless of price changes. To take one completely non-representative example, my current cost of living in NYC is less than it was in Madison five years ago. (And very little about the quality of life associated with that has changed.)

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 18, 2008 6:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And

there’d be a lot more opportunities for endorsement deals and the like in NY than in Milwaukee. Only so many Time Warner cable commercials can be made, and they have Hall and Weeks under contract.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 18, 2008 6:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I assume your suggesting that he would settle for a much smaller place

or else I’m wrong about the cost of housing in NY. For someone like CC, I think $3K is a starting point in Milwaukee. Can $5K get you a secure nice size place where his kids and wife can live as well?

by ol Pete on Nov 18, 2008 7:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing $20-25 million can go an awful long way

Towards a comfortable place for CC to spend the season in New York or Milwaukee AND a place for his wife and kids to live year round in California.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 18, 2008 7:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That seems like a lot

just to get away from one’s wife and kids. Did they not have bars in Cleveland?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 18, 2008 7:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Jeff, I hate to get into non-baseball talk

But it is interesting you bring up the your cost of living situation, I might have to have a discussion with you someday regarding that very topic. I was at a conference this weekend and the salaries for the greater NYC/NJ area are noticeable higher than the majority of other starting wages around the nation. The obvious first reaction is “of course, cost of living is that much more”, however your comment intrigues me.

Congrats 08 Crew on a fine Wild Card achievement! What do you say we keep the next postseason drought to something a little shorter than a quarter of a Century.

by MadJimiBrewha on Nov 18, 2008 10:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

the simple thing to remember...

if you work anywhere in, or anywhere close to, manhattan, you don’t have to have a car. No car payment, no car insurance, no gas. $80/mo. and you’ve got an unlimited pass for subways and buses on what is the best public transit system in the US (and considerably better than driving).

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 18, 2008 10:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I find it more amusing...

… to imagine the kind of Madisonesque debauchery that you engaged in that pushed your cost of living to New York levels than to do the rational thing and realize that the absence of a vehice and its associated expenses could actually balance out the more expensive housing in NYC.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 18, 2008 11:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Chevy Impala ... debauchery

same diff, really.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 18, 2008 11:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't agree

that the difference between 20 mil and 23 mil isn’t a big difference. It’s a 15% rise in pay between the two. That’s the number that CC, Milwaukee, NY and, most importantly, the Player’s Union will look at.

by Safebet222 on Nov 18, 2008 7:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe so

Though I’m guessing there aren’t many things that you can buy for $23 million that you CAN’T buy for $20 million.

This is an admittedly optimistic reading of the CC Sweepstakes - as far as we know, CC really stands for CoCo and he’ll bolt for a $1 million difference to play for a worse team. However, I think the difference between $20 million and $23 million is a lot less than the difference between $1 million and $4 million, especially for a guy who allegedly likes it here. If you’re looking for a place to hang your “CC will re-sign in Milwaukee” hat, this isn’t a bad hatrack.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 18, 2008 7:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

you're right

the difference between 4 mil and 1 mil is a whopping 300! It’s a huge deal. Still doesn’t mean that the 15 difference between the deals CC is looking at isn’t a big deal.

CoCo was offered about 13% more by Cincinatti, so it would be a good comparison to the NY CC offer over the Brewers offer.

Hmm…. CC and CoCo, maybe we just don’t have any luck keeping guys with the CC initials.

by Safebet222 on Nov 19, 2008 5:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

On the other hand

Craig Counsell keeps turning up like a bad penny.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 19, 2008 7:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The real question

What’s so funny about the word “paltry” anyway?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Nov 18, 2008 9:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ahhh First post.

Long time lurker, first time poster. Obviously my math may be way off, and the COLA might not be right (I got it from salaries at the 500K level off bankrate.com, but making some discount/savings rate assumptions as well as payout pattern assumptions (obviously any contract CC gets will be backloaded), I put this spreadsheet together. One of the key assumptions is how big his NEXT contract will be, combined with when he gets it (year 6 or year 7). Critique away!

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=piOl0m1moh_9sSdNpeelZQw

by Mykenk on Nov 18, 2008 10:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t get it

Lordz Of Vengeance....If I'm not drunk, I'm at work.

I am also pro-Rodgers.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Nov 18, 2008 10:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

cool.

you’re right, the big problem here is just how many assumptions you have to make to get to ANY conclusion, let alone a tenable one. but it’s great to see everything laid out.

Seems like the popular meme the last couple of years has been, “Why doesn’t player X take a shorter contract, since then he’ll be younger and can get another big payday?” We saw Rafael Furcal do that … and interestingly, it didn’t work out great for him. It’s probably less likely to work out well for a pitcher, but if CC thinks he’s going to keep rocking and rolling through 2014, he could think about it this way.

A nitty gritty thing — I feel like a hobby horse is developing, but I think even the 85% COLA adjustment is way to substantial. I’m too lazy to figure out what the state/local tax difference would be for the two cities taking the partial year into consideration, but I think that, in the $15MM+ range (or, really, the $5MM+ range) the tax difference is all there is. Especially if he maintains his main residence.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 18, 2008 11:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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