Rumorville: Alcides Escobar
by roguejim on Nov 18, 2008 7:13 PM CST
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PrintYahoo! Sports is reporting a pretty bland "Twins are interested in JJ Hardy" rumor (via the Chicago Tribune), but there's a throwaway line in there that likely is far more interesting to the BCB faithful:
Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin says there hasn't been much interest from other teams in Hardy, who could be available because of the progress of prospect Alcides Escobar. The current plan is to have Escobar work with new coach Willie Randolph at second base during the spring.
All along, the impression I've had of Escobar is that his skills will warrant being an MLB starter, and not bench material, and that he is spectacular defensively. I'd assume shortstop would be a better use of Escobar's range, but maybe it's simply a matter of you don't ask your all-star shortstop to switch positions to make room for a rookie.
Regardless, Rickie Weeks can't like this news. Personally, I'm not 100% sold that Escobar's offense is for real. Still, I'm going to assume that Escobar can make the switch to second base pretty easily --- heck, right now, he's probably a better defensive second baseman than Weeks is.
Assuming this plan is accurate, I doubt that the Brewers are going to have Escobar (who hasn't played at AAA yet) break camp with the major league club and start at a new position over Weeks. However, I can see Escobar starting at second base for Nashville in 2009. If we reach the end of May and Escobar is playing well in AAA while the notoriously slow-starting Rickie is struggling in Milwaukee...well, I'd be surprised if a move weren't made then.
At the very least, I'd think the supporters of the "Move Rickie to Centerfield" campaign would see this as an encouraging sign.
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it was also in a Mug reported story by Rosenthal
Melvin said Escobar will play second base as well as short in spring training, working with the team’s new bench coach, former major league second baseman Willie Randolph
I actually read an interview in a Venezuelan paper when he first went down there where he talked about how they wanted him to learn 2nd as well although to the best of my knowledge, he has never played 2nd down there.
Melvin also said in that fanposted interview that one place they had to cut payroll was bench and role players.
My guess and that is a true WAG, is that there is a good chance that “Esky” would be a backup infielder probably later in the year, but who knows.
I’d love it if they played Hardy at SS for awhile with Esky at 2nd. If Prince is on a treadmill these days like he should be and either Billy is more consistent or next year’s 3rd base is good we could really have a great defensive infield. I know I’m in the minority though.
Interesting
Alcides’s MLE line last year was .282/.318/.367/.679. If he’s as good on defense as we’ve heard, he’s probably an average SS overall if he played there in the majors right now. He’s also cheap for three years.
At second base, if his defense is diminished to say +10 runs instead of about +20 at short (just a 100% guess), that line makes him below average and probably less productive overall than Weeks.
I’m fine with them playing him at 2B a little in spring to increase his versatility in case they need him as utility guy for a little bit or in case of an injury, but playing him full time at 2B in 09 is probably not a good idea.
I’d like to see him at AAA for most of the year, to see if improve the walk rate and sustain the power— and generally improve as a player. If you want a fun comparison, go look up Jose Reyes’s minor league numbers
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
unrelated, but another fun comparison
Gamel’s minor league numbers and nick markakis’ minor league numbers. eerily seemilar, even down to the age and levels.
Gamel: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Mat-Gamel.shtml
Markakis: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/nick-markakis.shtml
Markakis has a slight edge in k’s, but his k-rate has gone up in the bigs.
Yes YEs YES!!!
This is the best news of the offseason so far… better than the ‘stache offering CC a deal. Of course it will be topped if CC does sign with us… But FUCK YES, if Rickie is moved to the bench or traded, I’d be as happy as the day Nedly got the steel-toe’d boot.
Frank Kremblas for Crew Manager.
It might not mean that at all. Esky could spend some or most of the year at AAA and if he’s here he would probably be the guy on the bench – at least that’s what I would think.
Unless Rickie gets traded.
I'd rather see Hardy's arm utilized at third.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
Hardy's intriguing
Everyone says how he’d only be an average offensive 3B, but if he can get up to Beltre-type levels on defense at third he’d be one of the best in the game and might increase his value to the Brewers, though not his value on the free agent market.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
Even if Hardy's current production would equal "average" third baseman
And Hardy stays at current production levels (offensively and defensively), than Escobar would just have to be better than Hall offensively and defensively for us to have better net production.
I think Hardy would also provide above-average defense at third base (I will assume an average bat), and Escobar would certainly be better than Hall defensively. With Hall’s struggles the past couple years, I bet Escobar could beat him out on the offensive side as well.
Maybe we could trade Hall to the Reds. It would be worth it for them just so they didn’t have to play against him anymore.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
Don't be so sure:
Weighted average (50% 2008, 30% 2007, 20% 2006), Bill Hall since 2006:
.245/.312/.443 (.755 OPS), 29 2B, 18 HR, 63 RBI
Escobar’s 2006, 7 and 8 MLE’s:
2006: .243/.263/.285 (OPS .548)
2007: .257/.275/.296 (OPS 571) in A+, .241/.267/.296 (OPS .563) in AA, we’ll split the difference and call it .567.
2008: .278/.309/.360 (OPS 669) in AA
So, to sum up, Escobar’s MLEs were about the same in 2006 and 2007, they made a huge jump in 2008, and would have to make another huge jump in 2009 to be better than Hall was in 2008.
Also, might I remind you that Escobar is still only 21 and has never appeared in AAA?
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
here are MINERs for both
based on them playing in Milwaukee … as a reminder, MINERs are Marcels + minor league stats + batted ball stats. (And a handful of other things.)
Alcides: 234 / 266 / 298
Billy: 258 / 325 / 454
I’m a little baffled that Hall comes out so high; his 06 isn’t weighted much at this point. But even adjusting some for the “huh? that’s way too optimistic!” factor and nudging Escobar up because he just looks so damn good in those jeans, there’s a pretty substantial chasm on offense.
Now, I don’t doubt that once he’s accustomed to the bigs, Escobar will be the better fielder, almost regardless of where they put him. And that will probably make up most or all of the difference. But, I remember reading (I think it was Sean Smith of Chone fame who did this work, but maybe not) that players (esp. IFs) tend to have rough rookie seasons on defense, perhaps because of the very different settings (bigger, more heavily lighted stadiums with more distractions, etc.) compared to AAA.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 20, 2008 4:10 PM CST up reply actions
The one thing about Hardy
Ultimately, I don’t think Hardy will be traded, because as an organization, we seem to always be coming up short on defense. I’m pretty sure the only above-average infielder we have defensively other than Hardy is, well, Kendall.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Interesting
Since Melvin has also said that he sees Rickie Weeks as the leadoff batter if the season started today, perhaps we’re in the market for a new leadoff hitter.
Perhaps Escobar and Weeks would split time at 2nd. Would Escobar bat leadoff when he played?
Can we get past the "leadoff hitter" stereotype?
The leadoff hitter’s job is to get on base and be fast. Rickie Weeks does both of these quite well. Given his minor league numbers, we can determine that Escobar would not be nearly as good as Weeks at getting on base as of right now.
I know no one’s saying this right now, but Weeks is ideal in the leadoff spot because he Ks a lot, and it doesn’t matter because he comes up with few men on base.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
.342 OBP last year
I can see where you could describe that as getting on base quite well. Seems more middlin to me. Other than using a MLE estimator, how is it you can determine how Escobar would perform?
Its kind of irrelevant because unless there is a trade for a high OBP guy at 3rd, if Rickie is on the team, there isn’t much else to put there.
.374 and .362 the two years before that
I wouldn’t expect more than a .030 or .040 split between BA and OBP for Escobar if he played next year. So if you expect him to hit .330 in the majors, sure, but I think he’d be more of a .280/.320 guy if he played a lot in the majors next year, and that’s probably a high estimate.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
"Weeks is ideal in the leadoff spot because he Ks a lot, and it doesn't matter because he comes up with few men on base."
The other arguments are somewhat persuasive (OBP and speed), but the above sentence only makes sense if playing Weeks somewhere is a necessity, which might not be the case. Adam Dunn k’s a lot too and had a better OBP than Weeks last year, so maybe we should sign him, play an OF of Cameron/Braun/Dunn and let Dunn leadoff… :)
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 20, 2008 8:11 AM CST up reply actions
You're reading it wrong.
What he meant through his phrasing is “Weeks is ideal in the leadoff spot because he is a run scorer.”
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
Did you say
That TSSC has no concept?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Rephrase
Say you have two guys— one hits .300/.360./.400 and rarely strikes out, and the other hits .250/.360/.400 and strikes out a lot. Conventional baseball says that you hit the .300 hitter leadoff and the other guy later in the lineup. Really, that’s backwards— the only advantage of a single over a walk is being able to move or drive in a runner on second or third. You want the guy with the strikeouts and walks leadoff because the strikeouts don’t matter as much as there’s fewer guys on and a leadoff walk is just as good as a leadoff single.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
I understand the hypothetical and the logic...
… but I’m not sure I accept the premise that those are the choices the Brewers have, or that Weeks should be a part of the everyday lineup at all come spring of 09. If you’re in a situation where Weeks is going to play every day and bat somewhere in the lineup, AND you’ve got no one with a better OBP, then I’d respect a decision to bat Weeks in the lead-off spot over hitting 7th or 8th.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 20, 2008 5:32 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, I'm fine with that
just trying to illustrate the principle. There isn’t that high-average alternative on the roster, and I’m fine with Rickie as a leadoff hitter. In a lineup with Weeks and Escobar next year, Weeks would be by far the better choice to bat leadoff in my opinion.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
Wouldn’t you agree that if Escobar puts up anywhere close to a .350 OBP it will be because he is hitting .330? Not that it couldn’t happen, but highly unlikely.
I'm not really arguing for anyone or claiming anything from anyone
I expect Rickie to be on the team and perhaps illogically, I’m expecting a bump in performance due to Sveum plus Macha plus Randolph.
If Rickie isn’t on the team, who leads off?
Grit leads off
We’ll pool together a bunch of grit, give the grit some pine tar, and send it to the plate.
Yeah, but than who leads off in 2010 if Jason Kendall leaves?
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
if jason kendall bequeaths the team a thumb nail clipping,
then we will have more than enough grit to form a leadoff hitter.
also, rickie may have had a .342 OBP last year, but the only regular who beat that number significantly was Prince, and i’m guessing people don’t want him to lead off. Hardy’s BB% seems to be inching it’s way back up to that that rookie-year level of 10%, and if he settles in (as he appears to be doing) as a .280 hitter, maybe we consider him? i think Hardy’s OBP will probably max at .360, but i don’t really know anything.
or we could sign Adam Dunn.
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