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CC's Choices

First-time poster Mykenk came up with an illuminating spreadsheet last night in an attempt to compare the current Brewers and Yankees offers that CC Sabathia has on the table.  (Thanks!)  As roguejim pointed out yesterday, we're comparing apples and oranges if we look simply at the total numbers of $100MM and $140MM.

We've talked about this in fits and starts in comment threads, but I wanted to summarize what some of the issues are.  Of course, who knows if Sabathia and his agent are looking at it in this much detail -- they might be as smitten with the extra $40MM as the mainstream media seems to be.

Cost of Living. Depending on to what degree Sabathia wants to engage with his new community, that'll be more expensive in New York.  First and foremost, he'll pay more taxes as a part- or full-time resident of NYC.  If he wants to buy a celeb-style compound for his family, it might take $20MM for such a place on Long Island; for the same amount, he could probably buy Manitowoc.

This is a tough adjustment for us to figure, because we don't know just how much money CC would spend in NY or MKE.  With that caveat, I think the taxes alone would come close to an extra 10% bite on Yankees earnings.  Mykenk's spreadsheet estimates something closer to 15%, which isn't all that far-fetched, either.

So...if we use the 10% number, $140 looks more like $126--a yearly value of just barely more than the Brewers offer.  If we up that to 15%, the Yankees are down to $119, or slightly less on an annualized basis.

Sabathia's Next Contract.  This is the toughest thing to estimate, but it might be the most important.  If CC pitches well for the next five or six years, he'll go back on the market as a premium free agent.  He's now 28, so even if he took a six-year deal, he'd be a FA at age 34.  For comparison, Derek Lowe is 35 (and certainly not the impact player that CC is) and he'll get a pretty nice contract this offseason, if not the "Zito-like" deal that Boras is asking for.

It's well-nigh impossible to guess what CC would be worth in 2013 or 2014, but I think we can agree on one thing: The sooner he goes on the market again, the more valuable he will be at that time.  The flip side: The longer his current deal, the more likely he'll get hurt or lose effectiveness before he sees free agency again.

If I were Sabathia (insert joke here), I'd go for a four- or five-year deal with the highest possible per-year value.  In other words, I'd rather have $100MM over four years ($25MM per year) than $140MM over six (~$23MM per year).  That way, I'd make more money over the next four years, and I'd have a chance to sign another megabucks deal while I was still in my prime.

I'm hesitant to even try to quantify the dollar difference between going back on the market in 2012, 2013, or 2014.  Let's just say that, all else equal, going back on the market in 2012 or 2013 could turn out to be worth more than than going back on the market in 2014 or 2015.

Present Value.  One thing that tends to be ignored in free-agent season is that a dollar right now isn't the same as a dollar in year six.  That's true in the real world, but it's especially true in baseball, where the rate of salary inflation generally outstrips real-world inflation.

Again, Mykenk's spreadsheet gives us some good numbers to work with.  He invents likely backloaded contract schemes -- for the Yankees, an annual salary in a six-year $140MM contract goes from $17MM next year up to $28.4MM in each of the last two years.

But...that $28.4MM isn't really $28.4MM.  That extra year the Yankees have on the table is "only" worth--in 2009 dollars--$22.4MM.  As with the cost-of-living adjustment, that hardly makes it a slam-dunk decision for CC, but it does knock another $1MM per year off of the Yankees offer.

Moot Point?  As you can tell, we're looking at a lot of difficult-to-quantify considerations.  Of course, there are plenty of other issues for CC to consider that are not money-related -- does he want to share a locker room with A-Rod? Is he already sick of hearing about the 1982 Brewers? Are pinstripes slimming? -- not to mention the pressure from the player's union to take the richest, longest deal on the table.

But, if we try to quantify all three of these aspects, as Mykenk did, we get an interesting conclusion--from CC's financial perspective, the Brewers and Yankees offers are basically the same.

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Comments

Display:

Frightening

I just clicked over to the site to write a post very similar to this one, only to find this one was already here.

I guess I’ll go back to making gummy worms.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Nov 19, 2008 1:32 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Never underestimate

the gritty veteran blogger.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 19, 2008 2:20 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Geez, Jeff.

Let our new overlord write the articles now.

:)

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Nov 19, 2008 6:41 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's so clingy

Hey, Jeff should start a Brewers blog!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 19, 2008 7:11 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Like that would turn out good.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Nov 19, 2008 7:55 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm like the Craig Counsell of the Brewers middle infield.

You think you’ve gotten rid of me, but just wait, I’ll be getting 50 starts a year for the next decade.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 19, 2008 8:43 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Or Bud Selig. :D

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 19, 2008 11:52 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It is

the newest Brewers platoon. Now all we need is the catchy name. I nominate Snowsack over the all too obvious Snowmann.

September 15: Not a bad little Monday

by molitorfan on Nov 20, 2008 6:37 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One more wrinkle

Deferred salary. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Santana deal included $5 mil deferred payable 7 years after the year it was earned with 1.25% interest which reduced the NPV of the contract to $123.1 million.

by Getting Yosted on Nov 19, 2008 1:33 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can someone email this to CC’s wife??

by Saberilliterate on Nov 19, 2008 1:34 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

inflation

price inflation lags monetary inflation and all available evidence is that latter is increasing at a high rate – in short price inflation is going to speed up (IMO).

Another factor that might weigh towards NY is endorsements and merchandise sales. If he does produce like an ace, I would think he’d be selling a lot of stuff like gatorade and what not.

I don’t know how similar the cut on merchandise is that MLB gives to players is to the NFL, but in the whole Favre saga some of that stuff was talked about and it was much more than I expected.

And FWIW, there are the unverified rumors of the Giants and Dodgers getting in the mix.

by ol Pete on Nov 19, 2008 2:04 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

These are all good points,

and it’s fun to think of reasons he should stick around in Milwaukee. —

By the way, Pinstripes are thinning. That will make him look less intimidating on the mound —

But I have to think that the extra year of injury insurance carries more weight than the yearly value of the money itself. Baseball money is guaranteed, so if CC gets hurt and cannot play his 5th or 6th year, he’ll still be making $23M to heal.

by tcyoung on Nov 19, 2008 3:32 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I emailed the link.

Shits ‘n’ giggles, ya know?

Lordz Of Vengeance....If I'm not drunk, I'm at work.

I am also pro-Rodgers.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Nov 19, 2008 8:51 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Endorsements?

What about endorsements? Appearance fees? Playoff shares? (I think the Yanks have better odds to make more playoff appearances during CC’s tenure than would MLW)

by jnr98 on Nov 20, 2008 12:23 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maybe, maybe not

A Brewers team with a lot of problems made the playoffs this year and the Yankees with a massive payroll didn’t for some reason.

I also don’t think a guy like Favre is selling Wrangler Jeans, Prilosec, Tractors, Batteries, MasterCard et cetera because he plays for the Jets now. If you tell CC he has a chance to do appearances for Dunkin’ Donuts like Joba and serve iced coffee, that might be a negative rather than a positive.

by ol Pete on Nov 20, 2008 1:09 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jeff, I'm gonna

copy & paste this into another document to show some people. I’d normally just link it up, but I don’t want these guys coming here and fucking this place up.

Cool?

Lordz Of Vengeance....If I'm not drunk, I'm at work.

I am also pro-Rodgers.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Nov 20, 2008 1:12 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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