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On the actual value of Mike Cameron

So, as you've likely heard, the Brewers exercised their option for 2009 on Mike Cameron today. Mike Cameron will make $10 million in 2009, $750k of which the Brewers would have been forced to pay him even if they had decided not to keep him, to buy out the option.

Now, $9.25 million is a lot of money. In $100 bills, it would pretty much fill this suitcase.

If you assume the Brewer payroll will be around $90 million next season, give or take depending on free agent signings, Mike Cameron stands to make about 11.1% of the Brewers' total payroll. That number is less than Jeff Suppan (13.8%), only slightly more than Bill Hall (9.3%) and much, much more than Ryan Braun (0.8%).

In several threads discussing the option, there seems to be a percentage of the population that feels like $9.25 million was too much to spend on Cameron, an above-average defensive CF who hit .243/.331/.477 in 2008, his tenth consecutive and eleventh out of twelve season with an OPS+ over 100. I'll agree that $9.25 million is a lot of money, and perhaps more than I'd like to spend, but if not Cameron, then what? Let's take a look down three other paths the Brewers could have pursued:

Option 1: Replace from within
Cost:
Cheap. Any two of these guys would cost less than $1 million for 2009.

Six minor leaguers played in at least ten games in center field for either Nashville (AAA) or Huntsville (AA) in 2008. Thanks to Jeff, we can calculate their major league equivalents for 2008 relatively easily. Here are the six, sorted by their MLE OPS:

Laynce Nix (AAA): .238/.287/.429
Lorenzo Cain (AA): .228/.293/.383
Michael Brantley (AA): .264/.322/.323
Hernan Iribarren (AAA): .233/.274/.283
Tony Gwynn (AAA): .231/.272/.274
Freddy Parejo (AA): .233/.248/.289

Of those, Nix is no longer with the organization, Brantley was the PTBNL in the Sabathia deal, and Iribarren has played just 11 games in center field in his career. Lorenzo Cain has played just six games above AA, and only played half of 2008.

So if you want to go really cheap and create the possibility of half innings that go 7-8-9 with Kendall, Cain/Iribarren/Gwynn, Pitcher, that's one option. On Yovani Gallardo's starts he should hit seventh.

Option 2: Sign another free agent to replace Cameron
Cost:
Moderate

Could the Brewers bring in another stop-gap centerfielder for less? Possibly. Let's look at the options:

Gabe Kapler, Brewers: There's no guarantee Kapler will be back, as he's coming off a career year and the Red Sox reportedly have interest in him. He's never had 500 AB's in a season, and hasn't even had 500 plate appearances since 2001. He had a career year and a nice comeback in 2008, but spent 2007 out of baseball, and in the five seasons before that he posted OPS+'s of 75, 85, 77, 65 and 77. He's only 33 and coming off a career year, so my guess is he'll sign for either 2 or 3 years at $3.5-$4 million per. If you sign him for that and he either can't physically handle playing full time or is ineffective, then you're back to the options listed above.

Jim Edmonds, Cubs: Came back to hit .256/.369/.568 for the Cubs in part-time duty after a rough start that led to his release in San Diego. He's 39 years old and hasn't appeared in 120 games since 2005. He's almost certainly not capable of playing everyday, but if you'd like to give him a shot I'd guess about $3 million for one year could do it.

Mark Kotsay, Red Sox: Hit /276/.329/.403 for the Braves and Red Sox in 2008. He's a serviceable big league CF with decent experience and while he hasn't reached a 100 OPS+ in any of the last four seasons, he was only truly terrible in one of them. The downside: he made $8 million in 2008, and since he's really the only other everyday option available in free agency, he'll probably get something like 3 years, $27 million, to make him $25k cheaper than Cameron.

Scott Podsednik, Rockies or So Taguchi, Phillies: Podsednik hasn't been a full-timer since 2006. He had a nice comeback in Colorado this year, but still only hit .253/.322/.333. Taquchi hit .220/.283/.297 for the Phillies this season and, at 38 years old, is likely done. Either might take a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Neither should be depended on to provide anything.

Option 3: Move Ryan Braun/Corey Hart to CF and look for a corner outfielder
Cost
: Depends on the corner outfielder

CHONE projects Mike Cameron as about three runs above average defensively in center field in 2009. Braun projects at about 7 runs below average in center, and Hart projects at 9. Braun has never played there before, so I'm not sure how reliable that number is. But, assuming one of the two would be 8 runs below average, the new corner outfielder would need to be an average defender and 11 runs better than Mike Cameron offensively to break even.

There are some Brewers that could be a fit here. Brad Nelson (.246/.321/.393 MLE in Nashville) is as close to big league ready as he'll ever get, in all likelihood. Mat Gamel (.273/.326/.430 MLE in Huntsville) could work, and a free agent to fill a corner spot is easier to find than a center fielder. This is probably the most viable of the three options, but it weakens the Brewers a lot defensively, and could mean Ryan Braun's second position change in as many years.

So what do you think? What should the Brewers have done?

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Comments

Display:

Moved Weeks to center.

by HRF on Nov 3, 2008 3:57 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2b?

Who would play second? I think I’d rather have Cameron (above average) and Weeks (average at 2B) instead of Weeks (below average in CF?) and a fill in at 2B.

by Supertramp on Nov 3, 2008 4:06 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Depends. Hardy or Escobar and a platoon at third. Or Esco at SS, Hardy at 3B and whatever can be found for second. I’m leaning towards platooning at third as I’m not seeing any available option in free agency and I’d rather trade Cameron for pitching. Plus, if Gamel somehow becomes a third-baseman instead of a “third-baseman”, the spot’s there for him. I don’t think he will and think he’ll ultimately end up in left or traded to the AL for pitching, but it’s the thought that counts.

I realize it’s a risk but Weeks athleticism is wasted at second and maybe the school of thought of a position change being good for someone’s bat could be vindicated by Weeks having a season of both-halves dominance as opposed to shitty first half-torrid second half. I also think, like the chatter at BP said today, that without Sabathia they’re also-rans and the risk-reward scenario is worth allowing to play out as if he’s an absolute disaster out there it’s not like they’d be making the playoffs anyways if an elite defensive centerfielder was patrolling their outfield.

by HRF on Nov 3, 2008 4:30 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

With option 1

Imagine the bottom half of the lineup if Escobar starts: Kendall, iffy hitting CF, Alcidinho, Pitcher

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Nov 3, 2008 4:25 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm in favor of Cameron's option, but there's a fourth route to consider:

Make a trade.

There are some good, cheap center field possibilities available. None would be as good as Cameron overall, but one of these guys plus spending $9MM on something else could very well be an upgrade:

  • Franklin Gutierrez
  • Endy Chavez
  • Nelson Cruz

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 3, 2008 4:38 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Like The Move Sticking WIth Cam

Provides a bridge to Cain in 2010 possibly.

But in terms of a move, if it were the case, Hart would have worked well in CF, and then looking for a corner option would have worked.

by Lavender on Nov 3, 2008 4:54 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow

How is it that that Braun character would be a better defensive centerfielder than Hart? Or do the 7/9 numbers take offense into consideration?

I dunno. There were 2 centerfielders in the NL with a better 2008 OPS than Cameron: Carlos Beltran (.876) and Nate McLouth (.853). You think Cameron is expensive? We’re paying $15 million for his services in 2008 and 2009; the Mets are paying $37 million over the same time period for Beltran (and will do so for the two years after next). Heck, only 9 CFs reached .800 OPS in all of baseball last season.

Sure, $10 million is a lot for a guy with holes in his swing. Still, it looks to me like the only way you can justify not picking up his option and going with a cheaper (and far worse) option is if you’re conceding that we’re not a playoff team in 2009.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 3, 2008 4:55 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Dodgers spent 18 million on a CF who didn’t play. That doesn’t make the choice of Cameron good or bad.

Not spending 9 million elsewhere may mean not being a playoff team in 2009.

by ol Pete on Nov 3, 2008 6:56 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe not good or bad

But certainly not the worst. :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 3, 2008 7:39 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On the other hand

Spending $9 million center field may mean being a playoff team in 2009.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Nov 3, 2008 7:53 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we're up to three hands now

probably good for defense but not hitting

by ol Pete on Nov 3, 2008 8:17 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are signing Cameron and getting better pitching mutually exclusive?

There is no salary cap, and any good pitcher is going to demand $50+ million over a few years anyways. I’m aware of the limitations on what the Brewers can do with payroll, but I don’t think that they have to have a CF who makes the league minimum in order to make be successful.

They do need to spend money wisely and if they can get an above average player for a below market price they need to do it….and they have with Cameron.

by Supertramp on Nov 3, 2008 7:57 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

there is a salary cap

It’s Mark A. They have several places where changes would be beneficial. Your argument is that the upgrade in CF is worth around 8 million dollars. I’d rather the money be spent on something like help at 3rd or more starting pitching. Oh and they could probably use another middle reliever and/or a closer.

They aren’t going to be able to get everything. Filling in whatever with guys from the minors or scrap heap guys is the other side of getting Cameron’s home runs.

by ol Pete on Nov 3, 2008 8:24 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are signing Cameron and getting better pitching mutually exclusive?

You get better pitching with better defense, so by signing Cam, you’re kinda doing both.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Nov 3, 2008 10:09 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is now way to prove this

Didn’t seem like Cameron was a well liked clubhouse leader last year? Also CC likes Cameron as well maybe it will help bring him back to the team. I say this is a solid move.

by pjpaulus on Nov 3, 2008 4:58 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Almost forgot

We also get to see another season of untucking the shirts! That’s definitely a plus

by pjpaulus on Nov 3, 2008 5:00 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In 2009

They’ll also be celebrating the working man by grabbing a beer and putting their hand down their pants while watching TV mid-game.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 3, 2008 6:33 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Al Bundy!

September 15: Not a bad little Monday

by molitorfan on Nov 3, 2008 7:24 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I believe

he played football in high school. Think he can handle centerfield?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 3, 2008 7:39 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

he did

have 4 touchdowns in one game. Polk High rules!

September 15: Not a bad little Monday

by molitorfan on Nov 4, 2008 7:36 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have the pictures to support your plan

Congrats 08 Crew on a fine Wild Card achievement! What do you say we keep the next postseason drought to something a little shorter than a quarter of a Century.

by MadJimiBrewha on Nov 3, 2008 7:15 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was hoping Brook Keishnick would make a comeback as a CF’r

by Saberilliterate on Nov 4, 2008 8:14 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am setting for Cam K's at 175 next season

Regular season only

Oh and 150 of those K’s will come with RISP ;) lol

Let me spell it for you Cub fans O N E H U N D R E D A N D O N E Y E A R S

by WSB Chris on Nov 4, 2008 8:19 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Regular season only

hahahahahahahahahaha…..

thanks for the laugh… as things sit for the ’09 Brewers… you are thinking of post season…. thanks

by Saberilliterate on Nov 4, 2008 1:51 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think its funny...

You have written off the 2009 Brewers in November of 2008.

by Supertramp on Nov 4, 2008 1:59 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

26 years of losing will do that.

You might also want to read the statement “as things sit for the ’09 Brewers” If by some miracle, they resign CC, or another couple of quality pitchers. Fill the bullpen, find a solution for 2b and 3b and remember that the games in Aug in Sept count too…. cool

Otherwise – a lot of “Ifs” have to happen for the Brewers to be competitive let alone challenge for the division title. If Yovanni has the season that we all hope for… If Manny Parra continues his success without a ‘sophomore slump’ and doesn’t hit the wall at 160 innings… If Dave Bush continues his success… If Ricky Weeks plays at the potential that we have been waiting for since 2004… If JJ continues to hit above expectation… If the Brewer’s can find a bullpen diamond in the rough…

Sorry too many ifs… 2007 and 2008 were the years

by Saberilliterate on Nov 5, 2008 11:08 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

“How is it that that Braun character would be a better defensive centerfielder than Hart? Or do the 7/9 numbers take offense into consideration?”

Hart is not a very good defensive outfielder, some systems show him as below average and some slightly above average.

by Ender on Nov 4, 2008 11:24 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Really!

I guess I assumed, with his speed and arm, that he was an above-average fielder. Shows what I know.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 4, 2008 12:36 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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