Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while trying to estimate how much Wooting off one could do with $160 million.
So you've probably heard from here, there and everywhere that CC Sabathia has signed with the Yankees. The Bloomberg story I just linked says the deal is for 6 years and at least $140 million, but Ken Rosenthal is reporting the deal is worth $160 million over seven years. I woke up this morning feeling like something was wrong...something didn't smell right. Turns out Gorman was sick during the night. But even if that hadn't been the case, I could have blamed it on this.
With the sweepstakes over, this may very well be the last Sabathia Smorgasbord:
- Bill Hall spent the weekend with Sabathia but "resisted the urge" to try to convince Sabathia to remain in Milwaukee. Apparently helping the team wasn't an option during the offseason either.
- Brewed Sports projects the Brewers as a 74-win team without Sabathia. That strikes me as pretty low. I'd put them at about 81 right now.
- Sabernomics says Sabathia was the second most valuable pitcher over the last three seasons, behind Brandon Webb.
- It is about the money, stupid has Sabathia's career numbers against his future AL East opponents.
So, moving on, the Yankees currently own the 26th pick in June's draft, and that pick will eventually belong to the Brewers UNLESS the Yankees also sign Mark Teixiera, who ranked higher in Elias' free agent rankings.Nationals Journal quotes Ken Rosenthal as saying the Angels have all but given up on re-signing him, and the Nationals are expected to make him the highest offer. Seamheads says he could be worth more than $200 million over 10 years in Washington.
So what now? Well, Doug Melvin appears to be dangling his feet in the closer market, as he's rumored to be pursuing Brian Fuentes and the Brewers are one of three teams in discussions with the Mariners regarding J.J. Putz. Ben Brown of Bleacher Report says trading J.J. Hardy for J.J. Putz makes sense in his book. That book should never have been written. The Mariners and Brewers have reportedly discussed both Putz and Prince Fielder, but not in the same deal.
Here's some interesting gossip: Might the Brewers also be interested in a catcher? The Orioles traded Ramon Hernandez to the Reds yesterday, but before they did, they apparently heard an offer from the Brewers for his services.
Bob Howry's recent contract with the Giants includes an incentive for games finished. Actually, so does Jorge Julio's new one with the Brewers. Over at Recondite Baseball, TheJay takes a look at why teams use games finished as an incentive base, and the odds a pitcher can reach an incentive for games finished without actually being a closer.
Some of us have been waiting for this news for months, although we probably didn't expect it to come from the Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. They're reporting Bill Hall could be on the trading block.
Elsewhere on the Hot Stove:
Astros: Reportedly met with Randy Johnson at the winter meetings.
Blue Jays: The team is reportedly targeting a 2009 payroll of $84 million, down from $97 million in 2008.
Cubs: Jake Peavy seems to think he'll be a Cub soon, but the Cubs don't seem to know that.
D-Backs: Reportedly are prepared to join the legions of others with a contract offer out to Arthur Rhodes.
Dodgers: Signed Hector Luna to a minor league deal.
Indians: Are reportedly near agreement on a two or three year deal with Kerry Wood.
Mets: The team may bring Pedro Martinez back after all and have also met with Raul Ibanez.
Phillies: May have reached an impasse in negotiations with Jamie Moyer, who is reportedly seeking a two year deal.
Rangers: Nolan Ryan met with Ben Sheets and has reviewed his medical records, but they're still not sure they have the money to sign him.
Rays: Are reportedly interested in trading for Rick Ankiel.
Royals: One of baseball's smallest markets has joined Oakland, the Dodgers and Toronto in pursuit of Rafael Furcal. They're also reportedly discussing trading Zack Greinke to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur.
Yankees: Before the ink is even dry on Sabathia's deal, the Yankees may also be offering four years, $66 million to Derek Lowe.
Chone Smith, apparently bored with the offseason, has unveiled the Hall of Very Good, for players not quite good enough for the Hall of Fame. Former Brewers Willie Randolph and Sal Bando are among the inductees.
Finally, a trifecta on bats: maple bats will still be used in 2009, George Brett is working with developers to market a bamboo bat, and Billy Ripken used to write obscenities on his.
Drink up.
Comments
At least we can move on now
and evaluate + decide what to do with ’09. I vote for a 1 or 2 year contract to a risky pitcher to see if we can get lucky.
Brewed Sports’s 74 is really low, but it’s not based on anything at all. I was expecting an analysis of wins over replacement, but it doesn’t look like they’ve done that.
If Gallardo produces similarly to Sheets this year, we’re back where we started ‘08. The things I said in the "Don’t give up" fanpost all apply now.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
by Jordan M on
Dec 10, 2008 10:27 AM CST
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74 wins
It’s not an analysis, wasn’t meant to be. I’m going to sort of poll the audience on every significant move to see how significant signing change the perceptions of fans.
I threw out 74 because it’s what jumped into my head as I was driving to work (all of a sudden the lack of pitching makes the club as it stands right now look like the 08 Reds to me).
Once the rosters are finalized, proper analysis can be done.
I have seen the coming of the Lord. Savior, thy name is Gallardo.
by ESK on
Dec 10, 2008 12:34 PM CST
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Well what could Bill Hall have said?
“Hey CC….I could get you in a Time Warner commercial :wink wink:”
Anyways, if Greinke can go for Francoeur, could we not get in on that by upping the anti a tad? Because to me, there’s no way that’s a straight up deal(or a logical one for that matter).
by Lavender on
Dec 10, 2008 10:36 AM CST
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Well,
The deal’s not done, so it’s not safe to assume the Royals are willing to take Francoeur straight up for Greinke, but if they are, an offer of Hart+a bullpen arm or a prospect for Greinke certainly doesn’t seem out of line.
It’s also possible the Royals aren’t as dumb as we think…perhaps they leaked a low offer they got for Greinke, just so a team like the Brewers, or a dozen teams like the Brewers, might think “I need to get in on this,” and make a better offer.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by KLSnow on
Dec 10, 2008 10:45 AM CST
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True
Guess, as a GM, you’d have to say “Wait a minute!!” :)
And honestly, everything is simply speculations and rumors this time of year. I only take the ‘agrees to sign with’ as the final say.
That said, waiting for a headline stating a trade or free agent headed to Brew Town. At least we get some quality time in the meetings now to go over alternate options at various areas where we need it.
by Lavender on
Dec 10, 2008 11:11 AM CST
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Yeah
I’m glad the CC situation got straightened out early enough to leave us time to maneuver.
I dream of a deal netting Greinke for Corey Hart + another.
Congrats 08 Crew on a fine Wild Card achievement! What do you say we keep the next postseason drought to something a little shorter than a quarter of a Century.
by MadJimiBrewha on
Dec 10, 2008 11:31 AM CST
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Add me to the list
Grienke would be a great addition.
by grant76 on
Dec 10, 2008 1:27 PM CST
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i ♥ zack greinke
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
by Jordan M on
Dec 10, 2008 6:04 PM CST
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now that CC is gone, why not move Cameron
Maybe make a run at Homer Bailey. I think Cincy needs a CF, no? Move Weeks to CF to see if there is a BJ Upton type bounce back in him.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on
Dec 10, 2008 10:53 AM CST
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Weeks to CF?
I’d much rather Hall BACK to center than do a new routine, with a person who struggled getting throws from 2nd to 1st, much less CF to home plate.
I wouldn’t mind exploring what the Yankees had in mind when they asked about him, but I’m sure other offers could be on the table.
by Lavender on
Dec 10, 2008 11:13 AM CST
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I agree
I think looking at the Yankee’s interest in Cameron, and Hall for that matter, might be the way to go now. However improbable, I guess their is a slight chance their interest was peaked for those players because of their relationship with CC, and now that they have CC they might not be willing to part with as much for Cameron and/or Hall.
I think someone put together a hypothetical payroll awhile ago which apparently I’m “challenged” in finding, but it might be nice to get an updated look at the payroll situation now without CC’s numbers and with the new offseason signings. Something to get an idea what Doug might be willing to spend now that CC’s off our books.
Congrats 08 Crew on a fine Wild Card achievement! What do you say we keep the next postseason drought to something a little shorter than a quarter of a Century.
by MadJimiBrewha on
Dec 10, 2008 11:27 AM CST
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Weeks to CF was something I first saw Keith Law suggest.
I’d rather see if they can wiggle Bailey away than take someone like Melky. I don’t like him much.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on
Dec 10, 2008 2:22 PM CST
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Weeks is to fielding/hitting as Baily is to pitching. Hype that’s not really getting there.
I’d rather package Weeks as an added bargaining chip in a deal that nets us quality pitching.
by Lavender on
Dec 10, 2008 3:11 PM CST
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I wish Keith Law would just stick to cooking. If it is such a great idea, I say let some other team live through it.
I also don’t like Melky. If they’re willing to go with someone like that, just play Irribarren. Try and pry a pitching prospect away I say.
by ol Pete on
Dec 10, 2008 6:05 PM CST
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This is all fine
unless the Yanks sign Sheets and (or) Tex. Then I will be very unhappy.
by Braunstalker on
Dec 10, 2008 11:15 AM CST
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Another rumor has it that Lowe is very close to signing with the Yankees, so Sheets might not land there.
by SgtClueLs on
Dec 10, 2008 11:20 AM CST
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Sheets met with the Rangers yesterday, and ESPN’s “rumor” state it went well. I’m not an insider so I couldn’t quite read that article. But seems like in terms of Sheets, we could just as easily give him an offer and get to the top of his list.
Just depends what we’re looking into. That Melvin is sneaky…
by Lavender on
Dec 10, 2008 11:26 AM CST
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There's a report on the meeting above, listed under "Rangers"
Sounds like Nolan Ryan was kicking the tires and checking for red flags, but they still don’t think they can afford him.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by KLSnow on
Dec 10, 2008 1:04 PM CST
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By sneaky, do you mean without a plan B?
Because that’s what I’m afraid of.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on
Dec 10, 2008 1:56 PM CST
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I believe you are underestimating the sneakiness
John Turturro Mr. Deeds quoting aside, yes, Plan B….what ever that may be.
by Lavender on
Dec 10, 2008 2:06 PM CST
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Just heard on espn
That the CC contract offer has an opt-out after the 2011 season.
Congrats 08 Crew on a fine Wild Card achievement! What do you say we keep the next postseason drought to something a little shorter than a quarter of a Century.
by MadJimiBrewha on
Dec 10, 2008 12:01 PM CST
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The team we have right now is projected as somewhere around 34-35 wins above replacement.
So that’s an 85 win team. Really, we’re close. It’s one or two semi-big signings.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
by jhmoore on
Dec 10, 2008 12:39 PM CST
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Who's the #5 starter on the projected team, though?
1. Gallardo
2. Parra
3. Bush
4. Suppan
5. ????
If #5 is McClung or Villanueva, then the bullpen takes a hit. And if it’s not McClung or Villy, then who is it? Narveson? Lindsay Gulin?
I haven’t done any statistical projections at all, but if I did I’d knock the Brewers back about 4-5 wins from whatever I found because there’s no depth in the rotation…if Suppan is terrible there’s not really an option to replace him, and if someone gets hurt the current replacement(s) would be pretty bad.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by KLSnow on
Dec 10, 2008 1:07 PM CST
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Yeah, this is the problem...
We need two SP’s. At least. One to fill the fifth spot and another as an injury insurance/Suppan Replacement. We could even force Suppan to throw out of the bullpen in low leverage situations only, couldn’t we?
by Safebet222 on
Dec 10, 2008 1:37 PM CST
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I think we could get a guy like an Odalis Perez or Mark Hendrickson for pretty cheap
But our first priority has to be a top-flight guy.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
by jhmoore on
Dec 10, 2008 2:47 PM CST
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I vote for jihad.
His pitches are sneaky fast.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on
Dec 10, 2008 1:57 PM CST
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I'd like to think that Capuano is an option.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
by jhmoore on
Dec 10, 2008 2:46 PM CST
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I thought reports had it he won’t be available till July.
Personally, I’m not sure if he’ll ever pitch in the majors again.
by SgtClueLs on
Dec 10, 2008 3:05 PM CST
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Really?
So would Capuano, but I think you’re the only two left.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on
Dec 10, 2008 4:57 PM CST
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Sentimentally, I would like to think he's an option, too
But I’ll believe it when I see he’s pitching well in Nashville. Relying on him to contribute in any way next year is a Milwaukee-to-Maryvale leap of faith.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on
Dec 10, 2008 5:11 PM CST
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Sheets
just to get some opinion on the matter, but id say we offer sheets high bux short years to retain him .. even melvin said he was desperate for starters now that cc is gone for sure .. do we take the risk of signing sheets again? or do we hope someone other than the yanks sign him and we sign someone else worthy of being a 3 starter orbetter? (BigUnit)
by BrewerBlue87 on
Dec 10, 2008 1:31 PM CST
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I really liked one of the ideas from the poll that was up last week.
2/30 with a player option for a 3rd based on innings pitched.
by Saberilliterate on
Dec 10, 2008 2:37 PM CST
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"Apparently helping the team wasn't an option during the offseason either."
Funny, but now you’re enabling my bitterness on two fronts!
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on
Dec 10, 2008 1:57 PM CST
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I figured you'd like that.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by KLSnow on
Dec 10, 2008 3:39 PM CST
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that was good
you got a laugh out of me as well.
September 15: Not a bad little Monday
by molitorfan on
Dec 10, 2008 7:57 PM CST
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Peavy
Just curious and I haven’t heard anything about looking at him but why not try for him?
"You have no honor!" - McClung to Fukudome
by zsxander567 on
Dec 10, 2008 2:41 PM CST
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He doesn't want to come here
I question why anyone would rather pitch in San Diego for a crap team than Milwaukee for a contender, especially if he’s willing to go to Chicago.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
by Jordan M on
Dec 10, 2008 6:07 PM CST
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Yesterday on the radio Seth Everett suggested that Peavy was manipulating the process because he wants to stay in San Diego rather than he wants to go to Chicago. Maybe the suggested package from Atlanta was BS, but it sure looked a lot better than what I see proposed from Chicago.
by ol Pete on
Dec 10, 2008 6:12 PM CST
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Zack Greinke to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur
Replace Corey Hart with Jeff Francoeur and add Greinke to the Brewers rotation. Although, I would imagine Fancoeur alone won’t net Greinke.
by Magellan on
Dec 10, 2008 2:53 PM CST
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Mike Cameron to the Yankees for CC Sabathia + Cash!
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on
Dec 10, 2008 3:37 PM CST
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Now that's the innovative type of thinking
we need in baseball. What are the chances we can get you working in the Yankees front office? I think I saw some guy names Mr. Costanza got fired a while back, maybe his position is still available.
Congrats 08 Crew on a fine Wild Card achievement! What do you say we keep the next postseason drought to something a little shorter than a quarter of a Century.
by MadJimiBrewha on
Dec 10, 2008 3:52 PM CST
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I'm sure I could talk Cashman into it.
And if you want to get me in the Yankees front office, I’m all for it considering the salary is probably pretty decent.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on
Dec 10, 2008 5:53 PM CST
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actually...
it probably isn’t. There are many reasons to work in a MLB front office, but money is NOT one of them.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Dec 10, 2008 5:55 PM CST
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groupies?
September 15: Not a bad little Monday
by molitorfan on
Dec 10, 2008 7:58 PM CST
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Really? Thats interesting.
I would have expected it to be relatively good. Especially with the Yankees, though I guess there riches are mostly devoted to players. I’m assuming it depends how high up you rank, also.
But, yeah, I didn’t know the pay wasn’t that great in front offices.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on
Dec 10, 2008 9:21 PM CST
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The thing is:
Sure, it’s a great job, but how many qualified people want it?
I’m going to guess every cubicle in America holds at least one guy who would love to ditch his day job and evaluate baseball players for a living.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by KLSnow on
Dec 10, 2008 9:45 PM CST
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So what you're saying is:
In this case, demand greatly outweighs supply, thus dropping salary because there are plenty of people who would take less money for the job?
Makes sense to me. Still wouldn’t mind the job though. :)
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
by NoahJ on
Dec 11, 2008 8:16 PM CST
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