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2009 Draft Order after CC signing

Here's a link to the 2009 draft order, before any free agent signings.

Assuming we don't sign any Type A's (not at all a lock), we've got #27 overall.

At the moment, we've also got the Yankees first-rounder, which is #26 overall.  That will change only if the Yankees sign Teixiera, which would mean the Angels get #26 and we get the Yanks second-round pick.  Fortunately, that appears unlikely.

Also, we get a supplemental first rounder for CC.  The supp 1sts for Type A's precede the supp 1sts for Type B's, so the very latest possible supp pick we could get for CC would be #43.  That presumes every other Type A changes teams, and they all sign with teams who were worse than the Brewers last year -- in other words, an unlikely scenario.  More likely, we'll get something like #38.

Here is a list of the teams/picks we could get for Sheets:

17. Dodgers (84-78)
18. Marlins (84-77)
19. Cardinals (86-76)
20. Blue Jays (86-76)
22. Astros (86-75)
23. Twins (88-75)
24. White Sox (89-74)
25. Mets (89-73)
28. Phillies (92-70)
30. Red Sox (95-67)
31. Rays (97-65)
32. Cubs (97-64)
33. Angels (100-62)

Getting one of those picks requires not only that the team signs Sheets, but that the team *doesn't* sign a higher-ranked Type A.  (If that happens, we get that team's 2nd rounder.)  I couldn't find a complete list of Type A rankings (I know who the A's are, just not who outranks Sheets), so if anybody has a link, please post it.

Regardless of who signs Sheets, we'll get a supp 1st for him, too.  Again, that should be around #40.   If a team *not* on the above list signs him, we'll probably get their 2nd rounder, a pick that will be in the first half of the second round--between about #50 and #65.  (Unless, again, the team that signs Sheets also signs a higher ranked Type A, in which case we're knocked down to that team's *third* pick.)

Finally, if somebody else signs Shouse, that nets us a supplemental pick -- probably somewhere in the 40s.

If we don't sign any Type A's, that gives us the following:

  • #26 (Yankees)
  • #27 (our 1st rounder)
  • #40ish (Sabathia supplemental)
  • #40ish (Sheets supplemental)
  • #45ish (Shouse supplemental)
  • something between #17 and #65 (Sheets compensation)
  • #75ish (our 2nd rounder)

Finally, since I've covered every other angle of this, let's finish it off.  Here are the guys who, if we sign them, we give up our #27 pick:

Varitek, Teixiera, Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Raul Ibanez, Manny Ramirez, Burnett, Lowe, Oliver Perez, FUentes, Juan Cruz.

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All I could find: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/10/31/elias.rankings/

In addition to Teixeira and Sabathia, the other Type A free agents according to the documents are Bobby Abreu, Doug Brocail, A.J. Burnett, Pat Burrell, Orlando Cabrera, Juan Cruz, Ryan Dempster, Adam Dunn, Brian Fuentes, Brian Giles, Trevor Hoffman, Bobby Howry, Orlando Hudson, Raul Ibanez, Derek Lowe, Damaso Marte, Jamie Moyer, Mike Mussina, Darren Oliver, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, Manny Ramirez, Edgar Renteria, Francisco Rodriguez, Ben Sheets, Russ Springer, Jason Varitek and Kerry Wood.

The Type B free agents are Jeremy Affeldt, Moises Alou, Garret Anderson, Luis Ayala, Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Casey Blake, Milton Bradley, Paul Byrd, Mike Cameron, Alan Embree, Eric Gagne, Jon Garland, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Griffey, Mark Grudzielanek, LaTroy Hawkins, Jason Isringhausen, Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Paul LoDuca, Braden Looper, Mark Loretta, Brandon Lyon, Greg Maddux, Brad Penny, Denny Reyes, Arthur Rhodes, Ivan Rodriguez, Rudy Seanez, Brian Shouse, John Smoltz, Frank Thomas, Salomon Torres, Juan Uribe, David Weathers, Randy Wolf and Gregg Zaun.

by HRF on Dec 10, 2008 7:42 PM CST reply actions  

Ok, figured it out.

Here’s a link to the Elias rankings.

Here are the players who were offered arb and outrank Sheets, in order:

Teixiera
Sabathia
Manny Ramirez
Burnett
K-Rod
FUentes
Orlando Cabrera
Ibanez
Orlando Hudson

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 10, 2008 7:46 PM CST reply actions  

hosejob

I know missing time is a big penalty, but those last four being ranked above Sheets seems a little ridiculous. Of course, I’m hoping the Brewers resign him and it’s all moot.

by sheeter on Dec 10, 2008 9:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah

the whole ranking system is kind of silly.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 10, 2008 9:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I find it interesting there's not more old media outrage

I like how a sport that apparently hates stats uses an arbitrary, random calculation to determine free agent compensation. It doesn’t even factor in defense, so a guy like Raul or Varitek is barely worth the comp pick’s value. And, to figure out the overall ratings for 1st rounders, they have to compare SS to 1B to SP to RP. Just strange all-around.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 10, 2008 9:32 PM CST up reply actions  

That reads funny

Varitek isn’t not worth the comp pick because of defense, it’s because he can’t hit. I apologize for the poor syntax.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 10, 2008 9:33 PM CST up reply actions  

there would probably be more old media outrage if

a) the old media had any idea how this stuff worked

b) there was evidence that Elias used advanced stats. (I don’t know what formula they use—they don’t publish it, but it’s been around forever, so it can’t be THAT advanced)

Now, if Marcels were a factor, or Elias admitted they were using (gasp!) O-P-S, you’d be able to hear Murray Chass screaming from Bernie’s Chalet.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 10, 2008 9:42 PM CST up reply actions  

ESPN

reports the Nats offered Teixieria $160 M for 8 years. He is originally from the area so it is not out of the question that he takes it.

September 15: Not a bad little Monday

by molitorfan on Dec 10, 2008 8:07 PM CST reply actions  

I’ve also heard 180 for 8.

by HRF on Dec 10, 2008 8:38 PM CST up reply actions  

The Yanks and Brewers picks...

can still move up a spot if the Mariners sign Josh Fields before the draft. Currently the Mariners have the 21st pick as compensation for not signing Fields. He was a college Sr so the August 15th deadline doesn’t apply to him.

by pjpaulus on Dec 10, 2008 8:52 PM CST reply actions  

Oh good ... I just duplicated somebody else's work

I spent most of the evening setting up a spreadsheet to track the 2009 draft order as it evolves over the offseason…

…turns out somebody else is doing it. Here’s the thread — it looks like it will be regularly updated. SOSHers are usually good for this sort of thing.

Note that the numbers for the supplemental round (extending to #57) are almost certainly too high — there will only be that many supplemental picks if none of the listed FAs return to their previous teams. Last year, there were 16 picks in the supplemental 1st round.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 10, 2008 10:16 PM CST reply actions  

I used
this one this morning, but yours looks more current.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by Kyle Lobner on Dec 10, 2008 10:24 PM CST up reply actions  

yeah

and SOSH guys are unparalleled in their obsession, so it will probably stay updated, too.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 10, 2008 10:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Well,

I just posted a comment on one of your posts at 11:30 your time, and you had a response up in five minutes, so it seems like you’ve got a fair amount of obsession yourself…

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by Kyle Lobner on Dec 10, 2008 10:34 PM CST up reply actions  

nah, i'm just bored :)

my obsession is far too fleeting to be worthy of the name.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 10, 2008 10:40 PM CST up reply actions  

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