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More on today's Rule 5 draftees



First, a quick look at the players joining the Brewers:

Eduardo Morlan, RHP, drafted #16 in the ML phase, from Tampa Bay
BR Page

Morlan is a former Twins prospect sent to the Rays in the Matt Garza trade. He spent 2008 pitching for the Montgomery Biscuits in the Southern League, and posted a 3.64 ERA in 47 relief innings (30 appearances). He's spending the winter pitching in Puerto Rico, where he's posting a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings. He'll only be 23 on Opening Day, so the Cuban righthander still has some time to put everything together, but he doesn't seem like a likely candidate to make the Brewer bullpen out of spring training.

Mark Holliman, RHP, drafted #17 in the AAA phase, from Chicago (NL)
BR Page

Holliman is 25 years old and recently finished his third season in the Cubs organization, split between Tennessee (AA) and Iowa (AAA). He's been primarily a starting pitcher, but did pitch 13 times out of the bullpen in 2008. He posted a 4.50 ERA in Tennessee in 2008, but a 1.74 WHIP in 86 innings. He's never really been shelled at any level, but he's also never shown anything that would suggest he's more than an inning eater in AAA. He'll hang out at the end of the rotation in Nashville next season with guys like Sam Narron, Lindsay Gulin and Chris Narveson...low ceiling inning eaters.

Jonathan Ash, 2B-3B, drafted #28 in the AAA phase, from Houston
BR Page

357 of Ash's 377 minor league games have been spent at second base, but he spent a little time at third in Corpus Christi (AA) last season. At first glance, he's doesn't look like much more than roster filler...he's 26, spent three straight seasons in AA, and only collected 552 ABs over the last two seasons. He can hit a little and is willing to take a walk, though, posting OBPs over .350 in each of the last three seasons.

Shane Justis, Utility, drafted #34 in the AAA phase, from Los Angeles (NL)
BR Page

Justis is primarily a second and third baseman, but played shortstop, first and both corner outfield spots as well in both 2007 and 2008 in the Dodgers organization. He'll turn 26 before opening day, but like Ash, he's willing to take a walk: his OBP has been .352 or higher in each of his four minor league seasons. He's never played above AA and he's never been a full-time player, but his versatility should get him some playing time in Nashville next season.

Juan Sanchez, IF, drafted #35 in the AAA phase, from Minnesota
BR Page

Sanchez is only 21 years old, has two years of experience and has never played above the Gulf Coast League (Rookie), so I'm not sure what the story is here. He played primarily shortstop in 2007, but primarily third in 2008, and has played some second. He posted a .314/.382/.467 line in the Gulf Coast League in 42 games in 2008. Players drafted in the minor league portion of the draft do not have to be offered back to their original teams under any circumstances, so I guess the Brewers saw an opportunity to steal a young middle infield prospect from the Twins.

Now, the players on their way out:

Lou Palmisano, C, drafted #5 in the ML phase, Orioles
BR Page

Palmisano is 26 years old and, at best, would have been the fourth best catcher in the Brewer minor leagues next season behind Angel Salome, Jonathan Lucroy and Brett Lawrie. He had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in March and spent most of the season in rehab, finishing up with a brief stint in Brevard County and spot duty in the AFL. Obviously there will always be a market for catchers, but the O's have Matt Wieters, possibly baseball's best catching prospect, knocking on the door of the big leagues, so it's hard to imagine them finding room on their roster to keep Cap'n Lou all season.

UPDATE: Palmisano has now been traded to the Astros.

Patrick Ryan, RHP, drafted #2 in AAA phase, Mariners
BR Page

The two first names thing is confusing: MLB.com has him listed on the draft page as Ryan Patrick. At any rate, he's a 25 year old reliever in his fourth year in the Brewer organization, having spent 2008 in Huntsville, where he posted a 2.52 ERA in 64.1 innings. The highest ERA he's ever posted at any level is 3.15 at Helena in 2005. I've never seen the guy pitch but just looking at his stat line he looks like a guy with a higher upside than Palmisano.

Guilder Rodriguez, SS, drafted #24 in AAA phase, Rangers
BR Page

Rodriguez is most likely AAA roster filler for the Rangers. He's spent at least part of each of the last four seasons in Huntsville, but has never posted an OPS over .691 or a slugging percentage over .309 in part-time duty. He's 25 years old, and will likely spend next season keeping a spot on the bench warm in Oklahoma.

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As I noted on the earlier post

the O’s traded Cap’n Lou to the Astros.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 11, 2008 2:09 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Updated

Thanks!

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 11, 2008 2:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

he doesn’t seem like a likely candidate to make the Brewer bullpen out of spring training.

I think he does. They can’t send him to 3A or they have to give him back.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 11, 2008 3:28 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Does TB have to accept the 25k though?

Depends if TB thinks he’s of any value above 25k….

by SgtClueLs on Dec 11, 2008 3:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There are always some Rule Fivers who don’t even make it onto the Opening Day roster. I don’t think being drafted alone makes you a near-lock to actually get the shot you’re supposed to get through the draft.

by Zeyes on Dec 11, 2008 3:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

it depends on the direction the team is taking

I would guess more than 50% of rule 5 picks get returned (or at least offered back), but it’s more likely that teams who aren’t planning on contending will keep their guy. Think back to the glory days of Matt Ford and Enrique Cruz.

Not to say that Morlan couldn’t make the team even if the Brewers are going for it, but it makes it less likely. I’m generally in favor of keeping high-upside rule 5 guys around — if only because most managers end up burying a bullpen guy anyway. Might as well use that burying for the good of the team instead of just pissing off (or wasting) a guy in your organization.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 11, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't see the Brewers keeping him.

By my count, he’s not as likely to significantly contribute as:

McClung
Villanueva
Riske
Julio
Coffey
Stetter
Swindle
Dillard
DiFelice
Bateman

That’s 10, so if he comes into camp as the 10th or 11th best option in the bullpen, even if he’d have to be sent back to Tampa, can you safely keep him around? And can you get him enough innings to get significant work?

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 11, 2008 4:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You may be right,

…but Morlan has higher upside than at least half of those guys.

His career K/9 is over 10, and he was close to a K per inning last year in AA. Of course translating that to MLB performance leaves a big leap for him to make.

But head over to his MLS page, MLE-ize the stats, make them a little better to adjust from AL to NL. Those numbers probably don’t quite qualify him for the back of a big league bullpen (though they’re close), but I’ll bet they compare pretty well to projections for at least half of your list.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 11, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

From what I read in the past few weeks anwhere else and at Draysbay, Morlan was one of the most interesting guys available in the Rule 5 draft.

Up to KL’s depth chart, I’d have him behind the top 7 but ahead of Dill, Di, and Batman based on upside and the fact that DM liked him enough to pick him. Especially if they’re thinking about having a “rebuilding” year, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them hide him w/ Swindle or Stetter in 3A to start the year (or if someone gets hurt or tanks in spring training). And it isn’t unprecedented to keep 13 pitchers out of spring training, even though it’s kinda stupid.

Another possibility is that Melvin just signed Julio to the non-guaranteed contract for insurance in case he didn’t get Morlan or someone else in the draft, though that doesn’t seem as likely.

And maybe they just hope Tampa doesn’t want him back, although I’m pretty sure they’d take him if offered.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 11, 2008 6:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

bio from the Biscuits page

2007: Finished 7th in the FSL with 18 saves…spent his first season as a full-
time reliever … Promoted to New Britain on 8/29 … Ranked 12th in the
minors with 12.79 strikeouts per 9 innings … Pitched for the Arizona Fall
League’s Phoenix Desert Dogs after the season and did not allow a run in
12.2 IP.

2006: Disabled with right rotator cuff strain, June 26-July 20 … Selected to
2006 Midwest League All-Star Game and struck out one in 0.1 innings.

2005: Promoted to Beloit on July 16.

Originally drafted by Minnesota in the third round of the 2004 June Draft
out of Coral Park High School in Miami.
Born in Cuba … Arrived in Miami with his family when he was 12 during a
relaxation in visa rules for Cubans in the late 1990’s, though the Morlans had
to make a detour through Spain …Is a rare Cuban pitching prospect who’s not
a defector, as he emigrated with his family to Miami when he was 12.

by ol Pete on Dec 11, 2008 7:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and this note from John Manuel at BA

Skinny: Former Twins farmhand struggled with Rays as velo fell; back up at high as 92 mph in Puerto Rican League this winter, showed 95 in the past.

by ol Pete on Dec 12, 2008 9:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Julio

yeah — Julio, and Coffey too, I would think, got just enough money to make sure that they’d try out at our spring training. I wouldn’t think either of them are guaranteed a spot.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if one of them is cut before April 1. I also would expect one of Stetter or Swindle to open the year at AAA. Like roguejim ‘08 and roguejim ’07, I’d love to see us pick up Guardado as 1st lefty.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 11, 2008 7:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Patrick Ryan

Are we so stocked on relievers that he wasn’t protected? Looking at the numbers, I don’t see why he isn’t in AAA

by Saberilliterate on Dec 11, 2008 3:56 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

His numbers sound pretty good

Maybe he’ll pitch well in spring and win a spot. Maybe he won’t. If he doesn’t, I kind of wish they would have given 50k to me instead. At least I would spend some of that money on the team.

by tcyoung on Dec 11, 2008 3:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Is anyone else besides me at all worried that a good chunk of our projected 2009 bullpen was in minors last year? Julio, DiFelice, Dillard, Stetter, Swindle, and now Morlan. Can’t we sign at least 1 player who spent all of last year in the majors?

by BrewHaHeather on Dec 11, 2008 10:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

These type of players are cheaper

and will probably be just as good. That’s what smaller payroll teams have to do. Or we could go out and sign Kyle Farnsworth to a 2 year, $4 mil deal like the Royals did today. I’d bet that every pitcher on that list pitches just as well if not better than Farnsworth over the next two years.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 11, 2008 10:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh my goodness

Farnsworth is 2 years, $8 mil. Dayton Moore is an idiot, wow.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 11, 2008 11:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Question:

Since Palmisano was traded, if the Astros want to send him to the minors, they still have to offer him back to us first, correct?

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Dec 11, 2008 11:34 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yup

Not sure we’d take him, though. Probably 7 catchers ahead of him— Rivera, Rottino, Salome, Lucroy, Lawrie, Zarraga, Fryer

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 11, 2008 11:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Does that mean that he is ahead of Kendall? They both have more facial hair than my Italian Grandmother….

by Saberilliterate on Dec 12, 2008 7:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

actually

if they want to send him to the minors, they have to send him through waivers.

at that point, if some other team wants to take him (and keep him on the MLB roster), they can do so.

if he clears waivers, THEN he gets offered back to us.

fwiw, I’d guess we would take him back. he may not have the prospect status of the other guys, but guys who can actually catch (something you can’t say about at least some of the guys on jihad’s list) have value as organizational filler.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 12, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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