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Friday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while trying out the marshmallow fluff diet.

So, on the biggest front, there's not much to report. The Mike Cameron for Melky Cabrera deal is still under discussion. Melky Cabrera is still below average at pretty much everything he does. Chuckie Hacks, Between the Green Pillars and Tyler Maas of Bugs and Cranks all have reservations about it. Buster Olney is already working on a eulogy for the 2009 Brewers. And somehow, inexplicably, 64% of JS readers (poll is in the Tom H. blog linked above) think the trade is a good idea.

Meanwhile, Doug Melvin is preaching patience. I spent almost an hour on the phone yesterday with my dad clarifying a point on my frustration, so maybe I should clarify it here too:

I'm having no problem being patient this offseason. I understand that working out a deal and improving a pitching staff takes time. I understand that making a trade like the Cameron move to cut payroll could make it easier to sign someone. If the Brewers need to trade Cameron to make room to improve somewhere else, I understand that.

But, and this is the important part, Mike Cameron, big contract and all, is ridiculously more valuable than Melky Cabrera. Cameron would have been a Type B free agent and the best center fielder on the market if the Brewers hadn't exercised his option. He's making $10 million this season, which really isn't that much to pay for a consistently above average center fielder. Melky Cabrera was a below average player both offensively and defensively as a rookie three years ago, and has gotten progressively worse every season since. Better players than Melky Cabrera will get non-tendered today and given away for nothing. So if the Brewers have to trade Mike Cameron, there should be a better deal out there. And if the Brewers really are trading Cameron for a bad center fielder and a low-level pitching prospect (anyone but Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy), then maybe we should have a conversation about goals.

Speaking of non-tenders, Jayson Stark has a list of players that could get non-tendered today, including Gabe Gross. The Official Site is reporting that Chris Capuano is the only Brewer in danger of being non-tendered.

Maybe Doug Melvin is asking us to be patient because the pitchers he's shopping for walk slowly now that they're getting older. The Brewers are reportedly talking to Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz and Randy Wolf. If you're scoring at home, Wolf is the only pitcher on that list under 40. All joking aside, though, I'd welcome a Moyer signing, and agree with Jeff's assessment that Moyer is probably more likely to pitch 180 quality innings in 2008 than A.J. Burnett.

Not that there was a hot rumor out there or anything, but Giants GM Brian Sabean says he didn't discuss any Brewers at the winter meetings.

So I liked having CC Sabathia as a Brewer, and odds are you did too. But did you enjoy his half season of work enough to consider retiring his number? I couldn't find any other source to back up that report.

On the Hot Stove:

Angels: Could still be in the hunt for Jake Peavy.
Blue Jays: Signed Matt Clement to a minor league deal.
Cubs: Acquired David Patton, who the Reds had chosen in the Rule 5 draft, for cash considerations.
Padres: May continue their youth movement by signing 41-year-old Omar Vizquel to replace Khalil Greene.
Phillies: Signed Raul Ibanez to a three year deal.
Pirates: Are reportedly close to a deal with Ramon Vazquez.
Reds: Have reportedly signed Arthur Rhodes.
Royals: In addition to signing Horacio Ramirez and Kyle Farnsworth, they also signed Doug Waechter.
Twins: Re-signed Nick Punto for two years, $8.5 million.
White Sox: Signed Wilson Betemit to a one year, $1.3 million deal.

Two economic notes to close the Mug today: The Diamondbacks, who recently let some office staff go, aren't filling unfilled positions either. And, less than a few weeks after the death of their owner and the layoffs of much of their sales staff, the Blue Jays may be going up for sale.

Drink up.

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Comments

Display:

value

Mike Cameron, big contract and all, is ridiculously more valuable than Melky Cabrera.

Depends on your definition of value. Clearly Cameron is the better baseball player, probably about 5-10 runs better. (i think it’ll be on the low side).

But if you consider the contracts like you are implying, then clearly Melky is more valuable.

projections for 2009
cameron wOBA .333, 2.0 WAR +.25 defense, total WAR 2.25 = $11 million, contract = $10.0 million; value = $1 million
cabrera wOBA .317, 1.8 WAR +0 defense, total WAR 1.80 = $8.8 million, contract = $0.5 million; value = $8.3 million

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Dec 12, 2008 11:06 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe its just me

but in that equation, couldn’t one also put in what the Brewers already have in their system? I know there is mucho hatred for the Gwynn and there is Iribarren. Maybe Hernan doesn’t play good defense or doesn’t have a strong arm I don’t know. Cam will be a total player that is better than TG or HI, but are TG and HI even worse than Melky Cabrera?

I wonder if there is old scouting stuff that makes them think that being brought up too early messed with him.

by ol Pete on Dec 12, 2008 11:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"Clearly?"

Melky has been below average each of the last three seasons, and last year he might have been below replacement level.

Also, be careful where you get your defensive projections…as I recall, Melky projected as a break-even defensive outfielder on the corners, but better than 15 runs below average in center.

So if Melky doesn’t have a huge bounce back season, and there’s no guarantee he will improve, he’s the textbook definition of zero value. Mike Cameron, regardless of contract, is worth more than nothing.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 12, 2008 11:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

clearly

clearly more valuable when you consider the money involved.

clearly below average as a hitter, even projects to below average (2.5 WAR in the AL)… because projections take into account what he has done in the last 3 seasons. right? already accounted for?

i made my own defensive projection from chone’s 2009 projection (-3 runs) and the tango’s fan evaluation (slightly better than average). where did you hear that he’s -15 runs in center? maybe you heard it wrong?

the textbook definition of zero value is below replacement level.

which is it that you have a problem with?
 a) considering the contracts when talking about value, or
 b) the melky cabrera projection that says he’ll be about 1.8 wins above replacement?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Dec 12, 2008 12:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have a problem with b)

Projecting him at 1.8 wins above replacement. That’s unlikely at best.

Bill James projected him at .326 wOBA for 2009, and Marcel has him at .317. I have no idea how they’re getting there, because Cabrera’s last 3 wOBA’s have been .333, .317, .285. I can draw a graph if you like but the trend seems relatively apparent.

As for defense, Fangraphs has his career UZR/150 at -11.3 in center. I tried to grab Chone Smith’s 2009 projections but the site was down.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 12, 2008 12:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

chone: -3 runs in center

cached version of ’09 proj

ok, well marcel’s exact methodoloy is spelled out if you’re interested. and while your linear trend line method might prove more accurate… i was using .317 wOBA from marcel.

honestly, i’m not sure i accounted for the AL vs. NL correctly either (.5 win difference), but i’m pretty sure he’s at least one win above replacement (which has value, and because he is not a free agent, he’ll be paid below that value).

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Dec 12, 2008 12:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

UZR

-15 career per 150 games in center, although he was exactly average last year. Cameron was +13 last year.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 12, 2008 1:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And I see KL has that up a bit above. I’m not using it blindly, but if he’s below average defensively and right around replacement offensively, I don’t see how its a great deal. I don’t object to getting Cabrera to replace Cameron, but I think we can get more in return for him.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 12, 2008 1:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i think Melky will get more than $500k in arb this year.

"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We're trying to see pitches and see what we can do. ... I'm not going to sit there and walk, though. I'll eventually find it, and hopefully we'll still be in it." -Corey Hart

by baumann on Dec 12, 2008 12:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i see

2 years of service time.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/new-york-yankees_111398168678860040.html

if he has three years service (or is a super two), and ’09 is an arby year, expect him to get, as a brewer, maybe 1.2 million?

… yeah, i see that cot’s is missing ’06. clearly arbigible™.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Dec 12, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

no, 2.2 million would be closer.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Dec 12, 2008 12:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

actually, it makes more sense that i’m reading cot’s service time wrong and the 1.157 is as of the ‘08 contract, so if we assume he accumulated enough service time during the ’08 season he’ll be headed to arbitration.

and i’ll say 2.2 million dollars w/ the brewers, something higher with the yankees…

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Dec 12, 2008 12:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Jacob, you need to come around more.

by ol Pete on Dec 12, 2008 6:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

PAs by year:

2006: 524
2007: 612
2008: 453 (but with the team for more of the year)

how does that not equal 3 years of playing time? is there something tricky going on with days in the big leagues that belies the # of PAs he’s had?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4022&position=OF

"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We're trying to see pitches and see what we can do. ... I'm not going to sit there and walk, though. I'll eventually find it, and hopefully we'll still be in it." -Corey Hart

by baumann on Dec 12, 2008 12:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

non-tender list

I’d be surprised if the Astros cut Backe loose as they need pitching depth, but maybe his emotional ups and downs have soured them. He’d be worth a shot at a spot.

Daniel Cabrera seems like a guy who Os fans repeatedly suggest as part of a trade package. I don’t really know anything about him, but he has about a 5 ERA in the AL East.

by ol Pete on Dec 12, 2008 11:30 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

So I was looking up how far below replacement Backe was this year...

And it turns out that he was worth exactly as many runs below replacement in his 166.3 IP as Derrick Turnbow was in his 6.3 IP (5.4)

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Dec 12, 2008 8:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

interesting that Sabean is pals with DM the GM

The day before CC agreed to go to NY, I DLed an interview with him. He was funny in an acidic sort of way. You have to appreciate when managers and GMs actually answer questions. Do you have an interest in Tex? “No.”

It was probably partly brought about by the interviewer. I often wonder who hires some of the knuckleheads in the Milwaukee market, but this guy was painful to listen to.

by ol Pete on Dec 12, 2008 11:35 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I wish there was a way to rec specific portions of the Frosty Mug...

… because the mid-mug rant about patience and the Cameron deal is dead on.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 12, 2008 11:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

A full rec would still be accepted.

I’m glad we’re on the same page.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 12, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And somehow, inexplicably, 64% of JS readers (poll is in the Tom H. blog linked above) think the trade is a good idea.

I want to know what the crossover in readership is between here and there. I usually refrain from reading comments on Tom H’s blog because things like this. There’s just no point.

"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We're trying to see pitches and see what we can do. ... I'm not going to sit there and walk, though. I'll eventually find it, and hopefully we'll still be in it." -Corey Hart

by baumann on Dec 12, 2008 12:00 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Marty McSuperfly

used to post in the comments section after the blog that shall not be named occasionally. Tom H. would usually post in his own comment section (which always seemed to me to be the equivalent of journalistic masturbation) in response and the kool-aid drinkers would then essentially burn Marty in effigy. That was about 2 years ago or so, and I pretty much stopped perusing the comments after that. I do still check his blog regularly though. Call it a guilty pleasure.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 12, 2008 1:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There are many things on the Internet

that should be ignored at all times. The comment section of the JS is on that list.

September 15: Not a bad little Monday

by molitorfan on Dec 13, 2008 8:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OBP

“Cabrera, 24, had an unacceptable .301 on-base percentage last season and a poor .341 slugging percentage, eventually leading to a demotion to the minors. The Brewers think he can bounce back because he puts the ball in play more than Cameron (only 58 strikeouts in 414 at-bats”

Macha is all about OBP and Melky’s .301 is a joke.

Let’s not forget that Braun was officially errorless last year in LF and a lot of that has to do with Cameron’s defense.

As far as Buster Olney and his eulogy, Suck it Buster. This team has a lot of upside having Macha and Willie Randolf in the dugout rather than our old friend Ned. I am still cautiously optimistic for this team.

by GoCrew on Dec 12, 2008 12:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

melky projects to have a higher obp (.333) than mike cameron (.328).

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Dec 12, 2008 12:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

We've already discussed why I think Melky's projections are bad, but I'll point out again:

I don’t think one can simply discard Cabrera’s .301 OBP in 2008 and accept a 2009 projection that puts him much higher.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 12, 2008 1:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Um

because players have off-years?

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 12, 2008 1:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm willing to accept the possibility that 2008 was an off year.

But that’s a big difference from accepting it as certainty.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 12, 2008 1:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

discard?

the projections are based on the previous three years of data. the .301 obp is not discarded. it is actually weighted the heaviest of the three previous years.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Dec 12, 2008 4:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder

What if this isn’t a salary dump (which was my first thought) so much as it is clearing payroll to bring on the pitching we’re after?

It sounds like that Doug doesn’t think we can compete without a top starter and a reliever who can close (if not a bona fide closer).

I guess, I wonder which is better for the 2009 Brewers: “top” starter (which, admittedly, may not be very “top,” given the available choices) + closer + Milktoast or suck-o starter + suck-o closer + Cameron? The answer might actually be the Cameron option, really, depending on the names involved.

Or, more directly, which is more preferable:

1. a supplemental pick in the 2009 draft, $10 million in salary savings, no credible centerfielder
2. a supplemental pick in the 2010 draft, Cam in 2009, no credible centerfielder in 2010 (Cain?)
3. Milktoast Cabrera + $8 million in savings, no picks

Or maybe we’re clearing payroll, but keeping the option of a salary dump as the offseason progresses.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 12, 2008 12:51 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

My thought

Is that option 3 is what they would like to go for, with the $8 million in savings going into the pitching staff.

Congrats 08 Crew on a fine Wild Card achievement! What do you say we keep the next postseason drought to something a little shorter than a quarter of a Century.

by MadJimiBrewha on Dec 12, 2008 1:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Melke Cabrea is a 4th outfielder at best. Plus I think his experence last year may have broken him. Did anyone see the type of body language he has last year/ You can look at the stats and projections you want, but if his confidence has been shattered, there is no coming back.

"You are only a success at the moment that you do a successful act"
-Tex Winter

by stork02 on Dec 12, 2008 2:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

shrug

Seems like everyone, on both sides, hates this trade.

Yankee fans think Cabrera is due for a turn around, and if at all else, is so young there’s plenty of time for him to really produce. They think his defense is on par with Cameron’s, to that I say shenanigans, but I’m sure like any 24 year old prospect/full timer there’s room for development(a la teaching Weeks to throw a ball from 2nd all the way to 1st, without throwing it at the soda vendor 4 rows behind the Brewers’ dugout).

Then here, everyone writes off Cabrera as a ’that’s how he is, that’s how he’s been, and that’s how he’ll always be’ type of player. Granted all most of us have seen out of the guy are stats, which of course never lie, but give me a break when you’re getting a young center fielder for more years, less coin, and less K’s over a guy with good, sometimes shaky, defense to go with a 2 K’s a game at the plate. I truly like Cameron for the way you always hear guy’s calling him a clubhouse leader, he’s the guy to talk to, or untucking the jerseys, but $10 mil + 1 year for that as a more than likely stop gap for Cain just isn’t worth it. That of course makes me agree with KLSnow. We should have just let him go his merry way and had another Type-B FA. That way we could develop our own CF without the pressure to perform and media slamming/demanding expectations that may well have caved in a Melky Cabrera.

But being that we picked up that option, whether it be because we hoped it’d net CC or we think he’d still work well for 2009, if this deal goes down we’re free of that much more money for later on down the road for so much as a contract to some of the guys we have on board currently, let alone this offseason in the free agent market.

So for me, I’m in the boat like everyone else. Yankees’ fans hate the trade, quite a lot of Brewer fans dislike this deal, so all in all I say it makes no difference other than opening up a bit more money to use as we wish. What more could Cameron possibly could have added that a Cabrera couldn’t, and vice versa? It’s experience and cash verses youth and regaining stride. I’d take the cheaper of two evils if it’s such a headache.

by Lavender on Dec 12, 2008 3:27 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Fine

I’m okay with clearing salary, I’m okay with trading Cam if the team isn’t going to be good enough to pay a centerfielder 10 million dollars, and I’m okay with the cheaper of two evils. But the Brewers already have a cheaper evil, not just cheaper than Cam- once Meh-lky gets his arb dollars TGJR will be significantly cheaper than Meh-lky too.
  
If trading Cam is the move, I’m okay with it. I am not okay with trading him for something mediocre that the team doesn’t need and shouldn’t want.

by sheeter on Dec 12, 2008 4:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There's just one problem.

TGJ can’t hit. Great defense, but a Rickie Weeks minus power style of bat.

One thing I didn’t include in my rant-a-thon, we should be netting an arm not named Igawa(Japanese for overpriced).

by Lavender on Dec 12, 2008 4:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

neither can Meh-lky

I would classify the offensive upgrade from Gwynn to Cabrera as somewhat minimal. And since Cabrera is evidently not much of a centerfielder, I’ll take Gwynn.

by sheeter on Dec 12, 2008 4:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Uh, the difference between Weeks’ bat and Gwynn’s isn’t just power.

by HRF on Dec 12, 2008 6:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's Wessonality!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 12, 2008 7:02 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Can’t we just wait to see if this deal actually goes down before we get all worked up?

by pjpaulus on Dec 12, 2008 7:24 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Are you not familiar with blogs? :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 12, 2008 7:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha

Just trying to be optimistic and not be a say nay kid.

by pjpaulus on Dec 12, 2008 9:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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