Rumorville: Mikey, Melky, and Bill E. Hall

by roguejim on Dec 15, 2008 11:17 AM CST Comment 31 comments

For those of you hoping the Yankees will absorb Bill E. Hall's contract as well, perhaps you're interested in subscribing to the New York Daily News?

Meanwhile, after getting to two top-tier starters last week in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, the Yankees will turn their attention to center field, resuming talks with the Brewers about a Melky Cabrera-for-Mike Cameron swap.

Talks were held up last week after the Yankees initially asked Milwaukee to chip in part of Cameron's $10 million salary, though the two sides appear to have come to an agreement on the players involved in the deal, according to a source.

Kei Igawa will likely join Cabrera in the trade, the source said, with the Yankees sending some cash along to help subsidize part of the $12 million remaining on the lefthander's contract. Still, the Yankees could surely look at such a move as savings, since they would rid themselves of their biggest bust from the past few years - a player they had no intention of using at the big-league level - while not having to pay his entire salary.

A second source said the Yankees have also discussed getting Bill Hall in the deal, but the infielder/outfielder is owed $6.8 million next season and just under $25 million guaranteed over the next three years, so his inclusion would complicate things even further.

Cameron is being looked at as a one-year stopgap in center by the Yankees, who are hoping that prospect Austin Jackson can step in and claim the job in 2010.

If there was one thing I'd like to remind Moustache of during these negotiations, it's this: Igawa is worthless to the Yankees. Given his contract, he worse than worthless. If he stays within the Yankees organization, he is unlikely to ever again play in New York. Ever. Even if the Yankees pay part of his salary, we're doing them a favor by taking him.

Cameron, on the other hand, has a lot of value. Even Hall has value, as the LHP-half of an infield/centerfield platoon or as a utility infielder. Generally speaking, if you have a four-player deal, and we're giving up the two most talented players in the deal and getting back the lesser talented players, we had better be saving a whole boatload of money. Or, getting a pretty good prospect back (*cough* Ian Kennedy *cough*).

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not to mention the fact that

if a year from now we don’t sign cameron don’t we get some compensation picks for him…i thought i read he’s a type b free agent

I untuck my shirt!

by Michael M on Dec 15, 2008 11:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I wonder: he had 25 home runs despite missing most of April. If he hits 30 HRs next season with another .800+ OPS, I wonder if he could reach Type A status.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 15, 2008 11:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

he's a type b

per elias

I untuck my shirt!

by Michael M on Dec 15, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well sure

But we’ve already exercised his option for 2009. I’m thinking about his 2009 performance, and if he could be a Type A after next season.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 15, 2008 11:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Would we offer arbitration?

He’ll be 37?

I believe we’d have to offer him $8M.

by tcyoung on Dec 15, 2008 12:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Tim Dierkes put it well

I’m not sure how the Yankees have managed to steer the conversation toward Cameron being overpaid. He’s not, and a fair baseball trade would involve the Yankees paying all of Cameron’s salary while giving up something useful.

by tcyoung on Dec 15, 2008 12:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

that's supposed to be a quote

by tcyoung on Dec 15, 2008 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

exactly what i was going to post

i think this trade is ridiculous. cameron is worth melky and kennedy, and that is if they yanks take all of cams salary.

by BrewerBlue87 on Dec 15, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

bingo

I don’t even know how we got to the point where we’re talking about Cam being overpaid.

The Brewers elected to exercise his option what…a month ago? Nothing much has changed in the last month, and he apparently wasn’t overpaid then, or else Melvin would have turned it down.

Sure, maybe the CC friendship nudged Doug in that direction, but not that much.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 15, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

....

hey melvin, tell those yankee bastards to get lost, ok thanks bye

by BrewerBlue87 on Dec 15, 2008 12:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Who else needs a CF?

I would love for someone to step in and offer something else for Cameron, just to keep the Yankees honest. Come on BoSox or Blue Jays, you know you don’t want the Yankees to get what they want without costing them a little extra.

Congrats 08 Crew on a fine Wild Card achievement! What do you say we keep the next postseason drought to something a little shorter than a quarter of a Century.

by MadJimiBrewha on Dec 15, 2008 1:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well, its not like Milwaukee has a pressing need to trade him.

The Brewers don’t need someone to step in and keep the Yankees honest, Doug just needs to stand up and say, “Y’know, it’s not exactly a pressing need to trade Cameron. Offer us something decent.”

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Dec 15, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope this is indeed the case

However, it looks more and more likely that it won’t be the case…hopefully it’s just a case of us not knowing the whole picture.

by MadJimiBrewha on Dec 15, 2008 5:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Doug Melvin feels the need to trade Cameron

He feels the need to obtain a Left Handed Bat. The Yankees have a left handed centerfielder available, so that’s why we’re doing business with them.

by tcyoung on Dec 15, 2008 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly,

I have enough faith in DM to assume he wouldn’t be stupid enough to take a vastly inferior player just because he hits on the other side of the plate. I think that’s Tom Haudricourt rationale for the move.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 15, 2008 6:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Why I'm kind of optimistic about this trade

The more I think about a Cameron for Cabrera trade, the less I hate it.

It’s easy to look at Cabrera’s stat line from last year and say he’s a crappy player, so lets compare him to Cameron. I have to assume last year was an off year for Melky, so when I compared stats, I looked at 3 year averages. Cameron had only 150 more at bats over the 3 years, so the figures are easy to compare.

AVG: Cabrera: .268 Cameron: .250

OBP: Cabrera: .331 Cameron: .339

AB/K: Cabrera: 7.67 Cameron: 3.53

HR/Yr: Cabrera: 7.67 Cameron: 22.67

SB/Yr: Cabrera: 11.3 Cameron: 20

Gold Gloves: Cabrera: 0 Cameron: 2

Last year, the Brewers struck out 1203 times. Only 8 teams struck out more than Milwaukee. Despite playing fewer games (120) than any regular starter, including Bill Hall, Cameron struck out (142) more than any other Brewer.

Cameron is clearly a better player. But if we consider the approximately $8M difference in price tags, the Cameron doesn’t look so great.

Is $8M a reasonable price to pay for 8 OBP Points, 15 HR, 16 fewer batting average points at the bottom of the order, and twice as many strikeouts? If Cabrera hits .270 and we use the money to sign a veteran Starting Pitcher, I like the trade.

by tcyoung on Dec 15, 2008 11:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Trying again

Well, you have to recognize that Cam’s HR/Year is low because he played in Petco for 2/3 years and was suspended for 25 this year. You have to compare that to at-bats.

The OBPs are really similar, agreed.

Strikeouts are irrelevant, they do not matter, not even a little bit.

When evaluating defense, UZR > Gold Gloves, by just a little bit.

Finally, I’d rather depend on a player that is consistently patient to get his .330-.340 OBP than a player that has to get a BABIP-fueled high average for a high OBP like Cabrera. And you can’t totally ignore that he’s regressed in three straight years.

I’m not against Cameron for Cabrera and pitcher. I’m against Cameron for Cabrera or Cameron for Cabrera+Igawa.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 16, 2008 10:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we can analyze the trade if it's Cam for Cab straight up unless we include a free agent signing

If we go out and use that money to sign a free agent pitcher, we have to make that correlation. That is the sole reason I don’t mind this trade. If Igawa is involved, the trade sucks.

Cameron had more AB in the last 3 years than Cabrera, so comparing HR/AB would make Cam’s stats worse. Petco is a valid argument, though. Cam hit more HR in fewer at bats as a Brewer than he did as a Padre.

Strikeouts are relevant. They do matter. More than just a little bit. Cam struck out more than once per game. Let’s say he comes to the plate with nobody out and 1 runner on. if he strikes out, there is 1out and 1 runner on for Kendall and the Pitcher. At the bottom of the order, a strikeout can be a kiss of death for an inning. And at the same time, a walk doesn’t help much with Kendall and the Pitcher up next. There are numerous scenarios that are less lackluster than the one I chose, such as sac fly oppurtunities, or bases loaded, where a strikeout is the worst move you can make. I couldn’t come across any RISP stats.

I should have elaborated on the Gold Glove stat. The fact that he won multiple gold gloves shows veteran leadership, as well as a vast knowledge of the position. The fact that he won them so many years ago could also be a sign of declining defensive ability with age.

Rickie Weeks 2006-2008 AVG: .247 OBP: .358
Mike Cameron 2006-2008 AVG: .251 OBP: .339
Getting on base helps you when you have good bats behind you. Like I said before, how much does walking in front of Kendall and the Pitcher help? At the bottom of the order, I would rather have OBP be a result of hits that could drive in runs than walks that don’t go anywhere.

by tcyoung on Dec 16, 2008 11:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I could be wrong, but at this point I'd be surprised if DM "used that money"...

… to make a move in free agency or acquire a pitcher. I don’t think they’re conceiving the potential trade as a salary dump that enables a second move. I could be wrong, of course, as this is pure speculation, but I really think they like Cabrera and have no real intention to “free up” Cam’s salary for use on other players that aren’t on the roster. Clearing Cam’s salary probably makes Fielder’s raise a wash and I suspect that’s how it’s seen by the front office.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 16, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Strikeouts are relevant. They do matter. More than just a little bit. Cam struck out more than once per game. Let’s say he comes to the plate with nobody out and 1 runner on. if he strikes out, there is 1out and 1 runner on for Kendall and the Pitcher. At the bottom of the order, a strikeout can be a kiss of death for an inning.

Here we have the problem of comparison. I am comparing:

A strikeout to a groundout/flyout.

You are comparing:

A strikeout to a ball in play. Usually the ball in play is better, because depending on how/where it is hit, it could become a hit.

Many times, a K is preferable to a ball in play because it eliminates the possibility of a double play.

To illustrate my point, take these two players:

Player A: .270/.350/.450 in 550 PA
Player B: .270/.350/.450 in 550 PA

Which one is more productive?

Player A struck out 200 times, but compensated by hitting more line drives.

Player B struck out 0 times, and as a result hit more groundballs and grouded into more double plays, though he did move more runners along the basepaths.

These players are almost exactly equal. I maintain that strikeouts are almost entirely irrelevant.

And I do agree that the extra money must be considered. If Cam is a 3-4 win player, Cabrera is 1-2, you have to replace him with a 2 win player just to come out even, and that costs 8 million per year.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 16, 2008 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And I do agree that the extra money must be considered. If Cam is a 3-4 win player, Cabrera is 1-2, you have to replace him with a 2 win player just to come out even, and that costs 8 million per year.

2 wins in a year where The Brewers are down from everyone else.

by HRF on Dec 16, 2008 3:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Comparing Strikeouts to Groundouts/Flyouts

You are correct that striking out avoids the double play. But it also avoids sacrifices.
Cabrera has grounded into .024 double plays per at bat; 34 total.
Cameron has grounded into .013 double plays per at bat; 21 total

However, over the last 3 years:
Cabrera has hit .023 sacrifices per at bat.
Cameron has hit .009 sacrifices per at bat.

Cameron has not had double digit sacrifices in the last 7 years.

Haven’t we had enough HR or K guys on this team?

by tcyoung on Dec 16, 2008 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

it's not that big of a gap.

SFs probably do go up if you strike out less.

SHs (sac bunts), on the other hand, are a completely different skill. Cam doesn’t have very many because he’s a power hitter and power hitters generally aren’t asked to sac bunt. Cabrera has a lot of sac bunts because giving up a Cabrera AB to advance a runner doesn’t cost much. (Because he’s not that great of a hitter, at least lately.)

If you limit the comparison to SF, we’re looking at .009 per AB for Melky, .007 for Mikey. That’s the effect that striking out more has on Cam’s ability to generate sacrifices.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 16, 2008 5:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting,

SF are not considered At Bats, what about SH?

by tcyoung on Dec 16, 2008 8:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Making contact with the ball can result in a double play or some positive things. I’d have to say that Ks might just matter a little bit.

And there is no way of knowing if either player’s UZR is even remotely accurate. Does Cam and/or Melky play shallow, i.e. on the perimeter of the CF’s assigned zones? That’s probably the biggest possible factor for error, but there are a lot of others.

by ol Pete on Dec 16, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

by Kyguy922 on Dec 15, 2008 2:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I predict 83 times.

One for each loss.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2008 5:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course, that's not based on anything rational or scientific.

Not sure why I felt the need to say that since nothing I write here ever is.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2008 5:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yikes

This trade just gets Sabeanier and Sabeanier every day.

by rob deer's moustache will destroy us all on Dec 15, 2008 10:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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