Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while wondering how much rice one could get for Mike Cameron.
Obviously, the Cameron trade is still a hot topic around here: As of this writing, we've already had 344 comments on an astonishing nine posts since Thursday discussing the topic. (UPDATE: It's actually more like 425 and eleven posts, as I missed two FanShots.)With that said, Jeff brought a new point to the table last night, and even if you're completely sick of the conversation, you should go read it for the insight on the unique economic plight caused by a $200 million payroll.
View From Bernie's Chalet notes that the financial flexibility gained from a Cameron trade would allow the Brewers to continue to pursue Brian Fuentes. That argument works if all of the following is true:
1) The savings on Cameron won't be immediately handed to Kei Igawa.
2) The improvement created by adding Fuentes to the bullpen is greater than the loss created by replacing Cameron with Cabrera in center field.
3) Fuentes won't sign with any of a half dozen other teams that are reportedly interested in him, including the Yankees.
Meanwhile, it's possible the Yankees are pursuing Manny Ramirez, which might force them to move Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui back to center and leave them without a place to play Cameron. It is about the money, stupid isn't thrilled with that premise.
Also, rumor has it Mark Teixiera is getting close to making a decision. If he signs with the Red Sox, Brewed Sports thinks it will set off a series of moves ending with J.J. Hardy in Boston and Mike Lowell and Manny Delcarmen in Milwaukee.
Three minor league notes to pass along today:
- The Baseball America Prospect Blog has started a project to evaluate catcher defense. Click the link to see how close Jonathan Lucroy is to the top and how close Angel Salome is to the bottom in caught stealing percentage.
- Project Prospect has Alcides Escobar #1 over Mat Gamel on their list of top five Brewer prospects.
- 2008 Brevard County Manatees Stephen Chapman, Taylor Green, Brent Brewer and Charlie Fermaint were all among the leaders in errors in high A ball.
Gabe Kapler's play in Los Angeles was voted This Year in Baseball's top play for 2008, with over 12 million voters weighing in. There's video of the play at the link.
On the hot stove:
Cardinals: The team is one of several talking to Brian Fuentes, and may also be interested in Takashi Saito, Kenshin Kawakami and Koji Uehara.
D-Backs: CEO Jeff Moorad chatted with fans Tuesday and made it sound like the team is still in the market for a fourth starter.
Mets: Are treating newly acquired reliever J.J. Putz as a one-year acquisition, despite his $9.3 million club option for 2010.
Pirates: Signed reliever Chris Bootcheck to a minor league deal.
Tigers: May be getting ready to sign Matt Treanor, who has a history with Dontrelle Willis.
Also, this isn't team specific, but does relate to a free agent: Rocco Baldelli's diagnosis with a mitochondrial disorder may have been incorrect, and his condition may actually be treatable. That could raise his value a fair amount.
In an era where baseball seems to be spreading across the globe, it's weird to have two stories on the same day going in the other direction: the Astros are closing their academy in Venezuela (h/t Crawfish Boxes) and Major League Baseball is ending its affiliation with Hawaii Winter Baseball.
Hope springs eternal...except in Seattle. Washington is the only state in a recent ESPN poll voting that their favorite MLB team won't compete in 2009.
Oh, and what if this whole oil thing had gone the other way?
Drink up.
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No to Manny
Yeah, I am pretty anti-Manny. He can flat out hit but a multi year offer for him? No way.
In a league that is clearly moving towards faster, younger, more athletic, the Yanks would be going slower, older, immobile.
I like Rocco
He’d be an interesting addition if the Brewers pull the Mikey/Melky trade. The team could even decide to move Hart to center and Baldelli to right. For that matter, if they free up $10 million and are willing to move Hart to center, there are a lot of outfielders that could be brought in to play in RF.
by Marty McSuperFly on Dec 17, 2008 10:05 AM CST reply actions
If we had Rocco
I’d need to start referencing Rocko’s Modern Life a bit more. As much as we need pitching right now, there are some fairly nice outfield options like Rocco, and he’d be a nice addition to the team.
As for our most recent BCB poll, I’d love to add an optional answer of Cabrera + Any Other Pitcher Than Igawa for Cameron. Curious to see just what the bias is against the flop pitcher that is Igawa.
There's a problem there, though:
If this deal included Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes, I think most of us would be in favor of it.
Before Igawa’s name surfaced, though, the names being thrown around were guys who were passed over in the Rule 5 Draft, and I’m not sure they were that much more valuable than Igawa.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 17, 2008 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
I can understand that.
But then is Igawa’s value judged by his MLB performance, hype, or his salary? Granted his Triple A numbers aren’t too shabby, but seeing as our scouts rank amongst some of the best in the game, I think while all this plays out we should work another route around Igawa, if possible. Problem is that’s not likely with the way the politics of the matter played out. Really hope we just bail the trade sooner or later.
Still, wonder if we tried a Cameron for a Kennedy or Hughes straight up, or would it have been too obvious then that it’s a straight salary dump ;)
FWIW
The Project Prospect thing was “risers” or guys who have increased their stock so to speak and not top prospects.
Damon and Cam v. Manny and Damon
I wonder which alignment is more productive: Ramirez in left, Damon in center, or Damon in left, Cameron in center. I think it might be Damon and Cameron. It’s certainly close. If Damon is below average in center, say -5, and Manny is -20 in left v. Damon being +5 in left and Cam +10, is Manny worth 40 runs on offense over Cameron? It’d be pretty close, Manny had a great year and was around +70 while Cam had the suspension and was about +25. which could be +30 easily in a full season.
I know which one is less risky and more cost-effective.
If you polled 100 random baseball fans/Yankee fans, how many would think Damon + Cam would be very comparable to Manny + Damon?
Also, Mike Lowell and Manny Delcarmen would be a terrible return for Hardy.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
That's even conservative
UZR likes Damon for +20 in left in 400 career games there instead of -3 in center.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
I don't know the details of Damon's injuries,
but hasn’t he slowed down quite a bit? That doesn’t have to affect defense, but it wouldn’t surprise me if 2009 Damon is worse than career Damon. Also, I did a study on this at THT a couple of years ago, CFs are generally 10-15 runs better in the corners. So given the huge sample size in CF and the small one in LF, I wouldn’t be surprised if Damon’s true talent level in CF is closer to +10 … not factoring in his old-and-injuredness.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 17, 2008 10:59 AM CST up reply actions
Manny is probably closer to a -15 or -10 in LF
The Monster really messes with fielding numbers, and Manny was only -2 with the Dodgers.
He’s probably somewhere between his -20 with BOS and -2 with LA
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
More numbers
Using wOBA, I figure that Cam was 12 runs above the league average overall last year, Manny was 56. Drop Manny to a slightly more normal 50 and Cam to 10 for next year. So if the choice for the Yankees is:
Choice A:
Cam +10 | +10 in center, Damon +10 | +23 in left
Choice B:
Damon -5 | +23 in center, Ramirez -15 | +50 in left
Choice A: +53 runs above average overall
Choice B: +53 runs above average overall
And Cameron would only be under contract for one year, like Jeff points out that would be an asset for them.
To reiterate this, Manny had a .430 wOBA last year and if he put up just a slightly lower one and play defense a little better than his career average now that he’s away from Fenway, he still would provide about the same amount of value to the Yankees as Mike Cameron.
That’s how much value there is in defense. It’s almost hard to fathom that for the Yankees next year, Cam is just about as good an option as Manny.
And by the way, I’m much more dangerous at this now that I figured out how to turn wOBA into batting runs above average. Related question: Does anyone have data for league averages at each position in 2008 (Jeff this means you, probably)? That would help. I think B-R has it somewhere, but I have no clue how to find it. For this situation, league average of .331 or .332 OBP/wOBA is fine, but if I use this method to compare players at different positions for value, that would be handy.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
b-r does have it
on the league splits pages, there’s a section for performance by position — you’re looking at league-wide totals by position. The rate stats, then, are averages.
The only downside is that these incorporate everybody who played at that position, including backups. I did a THT column a couple of years ago comparing that average with “average starter.” Average starter, of course, is better. Now, in the type of analysis you’re doing, it doesn’t matter, because average is held constant. But if you want to say that someone is “above average,” and they aren’t very far up or down, it can make a difference.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 17, 2008 10:07 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks for this
Interesting that in the AL, right fielders were the best position by OPS. I have that bookmarked now, that should come in handy.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
FanGraphs has them.
I’m sure they’re somewhere else too, but that’s where I go for them.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 17, 2008 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
If Hardy is traded for Lowell and Delcarmen only.
I probably won’t be posting on here very often as I will have lost my interest in the Brewers as a baseball fan. That’s how much I would hate that trade.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
I'm not sure how it got into my head
But for some reason I thought Delcarmen projected to be a starter. I’m wrong, as he’s pitched exclusively in relief every season since 2004 in the Florida State League.
I would’ve been ok with Hardy netting a stopgap infielder and a starting pitcher, but I’m not ok with him netting a reliever.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 17, 2008 11:48 AM CST up reply actions
Figured out why.
I was thinking of Lenny Dinardo.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 17, 2008 12:38 PM CST up reply actions
The "plus players" better be two of their best pitching prospects.
Otherwise, honestly, I’ll still be displeased with it. Maybe two is asking for too much but I really really like JJ.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
Jon Heyman’s hot stove blog
mentions yesterday that the Yankees were looking over Sheets medical records.
Isn’t it time the Brewers call him up and get a two year deal done? The hardest part would be figuring out the media spin.
Jonathan Lucroy
My limited impression of Lucroy was that he was a very good hitter that might not be able to play well enough defensively to stick at catcher. Throwing out 45% of would be runners is pretty impressive. I don’t know how well he calls games, or scoops 59 footers, but a catcher that can hit and catch is worth his weight in gold. Between Salome and Lucroy, the crew may have a good bargaining chip.





























