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Arbitration and FA Question

I just don't get it and I hope someone else out there may be able to explain it to me?

 

What is the deal with arbitration and FA?  More importantly - WHY?  I don't understand why a team HAS to even offer arbitration to get the compensation picks. 

Gagne is a free agent (thank the almighty baseball gods) - so if Milwaukee wanted the compensatory picks they had to offer arbitration?  I wouldn't mind bringing him back for $3-4M but that would break the arbitration rules.  He will sign somewhere else with another team that sees value in him - so why shouldn't Milwaukee get the draft picks regardless of whether arbitration was offered or not? 

It just seems pointless and quite frankly stupid to offer arbitration to free agents

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments

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To put it simply:

Offering arbitration is about the smallest gesture you can make to say “Yes, we’d like this player back.” So without the requirement to offer arbitration, you’re compensating teams (like the Brewers) for losing a player they weren’t even considering bringing back in the first place (like Gagne).

Now that the Brewers have declined arbitration, they’re still free to negotiate with Gagne on a cheaper deal. The old rule that you couldn’t negotiate until May after declining arbitration is gone. But the biggest pay cut Gagne could have taken in arbitration was 20% (I’m pretty sure), so the least he could have made in arbitration is $8 million, well above his likely market value.

The compensation rule is in place to protect smaller market teams. Essentially, it’s allowing a team to say “We’re willing to pay you fair market value for next season.” Then, if the Yankees exceed fair market value to sign a player or sign him for multiple seasons, his previous team gets something to help restock from within.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 2, 2008 10:08 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

But the biggest pay cut Gagne could have taken in arbitration was 20% (I’m pretty sure)

That rule only applies to players in their 4-6 years of service time still under team control. There’s no restriction on salary change for free agents like Gagne. However, they rarely lower salary in arbitration so he’d probably make around $8 million as you suggested.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 2, 2008 10:29 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"The compensation rule is in place to protect smaller market teams."

Absolutely true, of course, but what’s interesting is that is doesn’t really work that way. Some Type A’s come from small-market teams, sure (think if we were still a $50MM payroll and still had Sheets) … but many A’s aren’t free agents the first time, so they were recently signed by a big-budget team.

Essentially, the system favors free-agent churn — as I pointed out a while back, if the Cubs had offered Wood arb, it would’ve been better to sign Wood and let Sheets go than keep Sheets and pass on Wood (if you think they are equal pitchers, which is a whole separate discussion.) In other words, better to let your FAs go and replace them with other FAs — you might both gain and lose a first-round pick (which comes out even, more or less), but you gain a supplemental first-rounder.

So teams like the Red Sox seem to get an awful lot of supp picks. If the Yanks had played it riskier this year, they could’ve potentially piled on the picks.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 2, 2008 10:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OK – but in this case – we are getting screwed. I am sure the DM would bring Gagne back – for fair market value – (a lot less than he made last year) – but because of the arbitration process he couldn’t risk it so we lose the pick. I guess that is just part of the game

by Saberilliterate on Dec 2, 2008 10:53 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Or maybe he doesn’t want him and the team isn’t screwed at all.

by ol Pete on Dec 2, 2008 11:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The team isn't getting screwed.

They’re not losing a pick, they’re just not getting compensated for losing a player they may not actually want.

That’s not getting screwed, that’s just not getting something for nothing.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 2, 2008 12:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Saber's trying to say that...

… there’s a difference between not wanting a guy and not wanting him back at the salary the arbitrator is likely to give him, and that if you want a guy back you should be entitled to the compensation when he signs elsewhere. The arbitration system is there to protect the players from getting locked into a team that wants to dramatically cut their salary, and while there may be no 20% limit on a pay cut for players like Gagne, jihad’s absolutely right that there’s no way an arbitrator would cut Gagne’s salary by the 50-70% the market is likely to dictate. Saber thinks (and forgive me if I’m wrong) that a fundamentally biased arbitration system that the teams can’t rely on to be fair in circumstances like these shouldn’t preclude teams from getting compensation for free agents they lose.

But hey, nobody put a gun to the owner’s heads when they repeatedly agree (via the CBA) to an arbitration system that they know regularly screws them once the player reaches free agency. I don’t think getting a compensation pick for Gagne regardless of an offer of arbitration is getting something for nothing, but it’s not like the Brewers didn’t know the rules. They gambled on Gagne last year hoping they’d get good production out of him, he’d be a class A free agent this winter and they could count themselves lucky for buying 6 months of good relief work and a couple of early picks for $10 million. Obviously that didn’t work out and they chose not to compound those gambling losses by offering arbitration that, if he took it, would probably result in them paying Gagne twice what he was worth. I think that in practice the arbitration system in the MLB is ridiculous, but DM deserves the blame for every negative aspect of the Gagne situation. Personally, I thought it was a gamble worth taking, so I’m not going to rip him too hard for it on the back end when it doesn’t pan out.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 2, 2008 12:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes – thank you for putting it into words for me.

by Saberilliterate on Dec 2, 2008 12:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

taking the low end of your estimate

is Gagne worth $3 million or rather would the Brewers want him at that?

by ol Pete on Dec 2, 2008 12:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I suspect they would, but only DM knows for sure.

The flaw in the argument is that KL and Jay may be right and the Brewers may not want him back at any price at all.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 2, 2008 11:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think they’d want him at $3 million

by ol Pete on Dec 2, 2008 11:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You could be right.

And if you are, then KL’s correct.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 2, 2008 11:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Compensation for free agents was controversial from the get-go

It’s what the 1981 strike was about. In 1976, when free agency first started, owners were afraid salaries would shoot way up and wealthier teams would have too much of an advantage. So they sought to put limits on free agency. Well, most of them did: Charlie O. Finley wanted to make all players free agents every year to keep prices down. Since Finley was a radical, the rest of the owners ignored him and negotiated with the MLBPA to place some restrictions on free agency. Players with six years’ service time could file for free agency and such players could only file for free agency once every five years. Also, only twelve teams would be allowed to negotiate with each free agent. These teams were determined at a post-season draft of negotiating rights. Compensation for losing a free agent was the signing team’s highest draft pick (unless the team was selecting in the top half of the first round, in which case their highest pick was considered their second round pick).

Even with some checks on free agency, the owners spent so profligately the average salary nearly tripled in four years. So when it came time to work on the 1980 CBA, both sides agreed to put a committee together to recommend a compensation scheme in 1981. If it failed to produce one, the owners could implement their own proposal but the players would have a right to strike. Nothing was solved, the owners put their own proposal in place, and the players struck in the middle of the season. After 712 games were canceled, a new form of compensation was agreed upon.

Type A and B free agents were introduced for the first time with similar definitions although the top whatever percentages were different. Each team was allowed to protect 24 players in its organization. Teams that didn’t sign any Type A free agents could protect 26 players. Up to five clubs could protect all of their players by pledging not to go after any Type A free agents in the negotiating draft for three years. If a team lost a Type A free agent, it could select an unprotected player from any team in the league as compensation. In addition, they got an amateur draft pick. Type B free agents netted two draft picks. All other free agents netted one draft pick.

It didn’t work. Players could be taken from teams that weren’t involved with a free agent signing. The Mets’ Tom Seaver went to the White Sox as compensation for Dennis Lamp heading to Toronto. The Athletics were allowed to draft Yankees’ top prospect Tim Belcher even though Belcher signed with New York after the deadline for protecting players had passed. Fans couldn’t figure out why any of this made sense. Heck, some teams couldn’t figure it out.

So by 1985 owners were sick of the compensation draft idea. After contentious negotiations over a number of other issues (made worse by owners claiming the last year baseball made a profit was 1978 when all 26 teams combined to make a whopping $4,568), the compensation draft was dropped. The annual draft of negotiating rights was dropped. This meant that for the first time all free agents could talk with every team. The one catch installed, however, was that for a player’s original team to retain its negotiating rights with the player they had to offer him salary arbitration. That’s where the offering arbitration to free agents thing got started.

It all comes down to this: as said above, offering arbitration is a sort of last resort way of saying to the player that the team wants him back. The idea of linking draft picks to arbitration again comes from the idea of compensation. By offering their free agents arbitration, the team is expressing interest having them back. Thus if the player accepts presumably everyone’s happy. If the player doesn’t accept and signs elsewhere, the team’s interest in keeping their now lost player is rewarded by draft picks. If the team doesn’t offer arbitration, it’s saying the team doesn’t want a player back even for fair market value set by an impartial arbitrator. Thus if/when that guy goes elsewhere, the former team gets no reward for not wanting the player back.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Dec 2, 2008 12:18 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Nice.

Excellent as always. The only problem being that “for fair market value set by an impartial arbitrator” isn’t what happens in reality. I suspect that Gagne and many of the other MLB players that weren’t offered arbitration are guys that their 2007 teams wouldn’t mind retaining, and the decision to not offer arbitration was made precisely because the teams don’t believe that the arbitrators are all that impartial and/or likely to set the players’ salaray at his actual fair market value. I think Jihad is right in his guess on what Gagne would have gotten in arbitration. What his actual market value is will be determined by the market…

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 2, 2008 12:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't it?

When teams go out and sign ever more expensive deals for players, who’s to say that the arbitrator wouldn’t set a fair market value? It seems strange to me to argue that a team willing to pay eight figures for one year of a reliever is being unfairly treated when it comes to determining his salary for the next season. I also am not convinced he’d be awarded $8 million in arbitration. The reason salaries rarely go down through arbitration is because it’s overwhelmingly 3-6 years of service guys who go to arbitration. Those salaries rise because players of similar age and accomplishments make more money each year through free agency as well as arbitration.

When it comes to a guy like Gagne, he can be compared to other mid-30’s relievers who struggled in 2008. I think he’d be more likely to make $6 million than $8 million through arbitration simply because guys like Bobby Howry, David Riske, or Octavio Dotel who’ve had good careers without Gagne’s save totals made $4-5 million last year. If teams paid that much for regular relievers last season, $6 million isn’t too far out there for a guy with all-important “closer” pedigree. Then again, given how much teams are willing to pay for closers like Cordero last year (similar career numbers to Gagne) or Todd Jones at $7 million or, like I said, Gagne at $10 million, is $8 million really so unbelievable?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Dec 2, 2008 1:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, 8 million is unbelievable.

Not because closers aren’t worth that much and don’t get paid that much, but because Gagne imploded in that role last year, yet the fact that he was and has been a closer still inflates his value in arbitration. If you’ve got an example (and yeah, I know daring you to find an example means I’m about to lose the argument) of a player’s salary being cut by 60% by an arbitrator, I’ll cede the point, but my perspective is that it’s far from a coincidence that guys who experience a dramatic dropoff in production immediately before entering free agency rarely get offered arbitration and rarely experience more than a token pay reduction when they do.

As for the ever upward trend in contracts, I’m certainly not suggesting that the owners don’t drive the average salary up on an annual basis. But we’re not dealing in generalities, but a system that’s supposed to determine the actual market value of a specific player without letting that player hit the market. That’s hard to do, I’ll admit, and as a result arbitrators tend to rely on career averages, past production, age (and actuarial calculations of career longevity) and the contracts of players with comparable numbers. That pushes numbers up in the 3-6 category, and slows the drag down for the longer tenured player: salaries rocket up in the first years of arbitration eligibility, but then drift down slowly (if they move down at all) on the back end of the player’s career. Guys with recent histories like Gagne’s are ill-suited to such an analysis and the teams rightly conclude they’ve got little to no chance of getting a fair number in an arbitration hearing, so they don’t offer arbitration, and thus lose the opportunity for the pick not because they don’t want the guy back (at least in theory) but because they can’t trust the arbitrator.

I guess now we’ll all find out what Gagne’s market value is. I’ll be stunned if he gets 8 million from anyone. A 6 million per year deal would make me shake my head, but I’ll admit it’s possible.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 2, 2008 11:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Another aspect...

Let’s not forget that the arbitrators don’t exactly “set” a salary (whether fair value or not), they simply pick one of the two figures submitted by the team and the player. Even if the club rightly figures that his market value is, say, 5 million, if that’s what they submit and Gagne’s agent submits 8 million (already quite a bit short of his last salary), chances are probably pretty high that the Brewers would lose that hearing.

Obviously that’s a problem with the system in that even a fair value may not be selected if it appears to be “just too low”, but it’s probably also unavoidable as long as real living humans still have to make that assessment. (Can we get MLB to use OOTP for calculating arbitration awards?). As TSSC said, players who dramatically underperfomed their previously-assumed value tend not to be offered arb at all, and I’m sure the fact that these players are the least likely to get a proper salary assessment from the arb board plays a large role in it.

by Zeyes on Dec 2, 2008 11:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes!

My laziness is rewarded! Thank you for saving me the trouble of making this point. :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 3, 2008 12:19 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That 5 and 8 scenario was about exactly what I had in mind

when I suggested it up above. That’s just how arbitration works.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 3, 2008 10:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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