2009 Bill James Brewers Projections (Updated 1/8/09)

by Rendezvous on Dec 27, 2008 8:45 PM CST Comment 21 comments

Straight from the Bill James Handbook, these are the current Brewers 40-man roster and Spring Training Invitees projections for 2009. Take it as it is. As you can see, roughly half of the team have no projections, but such is life. I hope you enjoy looking at this as much as I enjoyed typing it in. If you would like to know the Bill James projection for any player, just ask in the comments.

Note: If a player is added to any list, the projections will be added with them. I apologize for the lengthy space at the bottom, it simply won't go away.

Position	Name	2009 Bill James Projections

Pitchers		Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	HB	W	L	Sv	BR/9	ERA
RHP	Aguilar, Omar	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RHP	Bush, Dave	29	31	29	192	195	27	44	128	13	11	10	0	11.8	3.99
RHP	Coffey, Todd	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RHP	DiFelice, Mark	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RHP	Dillard, Tim	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RHP	Gallardo, Yovani	23	31	31	196	179	13	76	201	3	13	9	0	11.8	3.61
RHP	Hoffman, Trevor	41	42	0	42	35	4	10	38	0	2	2	41	9.6	2.94
RHP	Julio, Jorge	30	30	0	34	32	5	17	33	1	2	2	0	13.2	4.5
RHP	McClung, Seth	28	37	7	85	81	10	49	73	5	4	5	0	14.3	4.69
RHP	Morlan, Eduardo	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
LHP	Parra, Manny	26	30	26	154	156	11	61	142	5	9	8	0	13	3.95
RHP	Pena, Luis	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RHP	Periard, Alex	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RHP	Riske, David	32	38	0	33	30	4	15	27	1	2	2	0	12.5	3.95
RHP	Rogers, Mark	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RHP	Scarpetta, Cody	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
LHP	Stetter, Mitch	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RHP	Suppan, Jeff	34	31	31	184	205	23	62	100	7	9	11	0	13.4	4.7
LHP	Swindle, R.J.	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RHP	Villanueva, Carlos	25	47	4	92	85	13	32	79	3	6	5	0	11.7	3.85

Catchers		Age	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	Kendall, Jason	35	133	445	118	21	1	2	49	39	39	40	6	0.265	0.343	0.33	0.674
	Rivera, Mike	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	Rottino, Vinny	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	Salome, Angel	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Infielders		Age	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
SS	Escobar, Alcides	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1B	Fielder, Prince	25	160	595	167	35	1	40	97	110	84	128	4	0.281	0.379	0.545	0.923
3B	Gamel, Mat	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
IF	Hall, Bill	29	131	418	103	28	2	15	57	54	37	122	6	0.246	0.311	0.431	0.741
SS	Hardy, J.J.	26	142	556	152	32	2	23	79	77	51	79	2	0.273	0.336	0.462	0.798
2B/CF	Iribarren, Hernan	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3B	Lamb, Mike	33	97	237	64	12	1	6	32	32	22	36	0	0.27	0.335	0.405	0.74
3B	McGehee, Casey	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1B/OF	Nelson, Brad	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2B	Weeks, Rickie	26	137	510	131	28	6	17	100	55	73	118	21	0.257	0.364	0.435	0.799

Outfielders		Age	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
LF	Braun, Ryan	25	151	603	187	43	6	44	112	120	46	117	16	0.31	0.364	0.62	0.984
CF	Cameron, Mike	36	145	558	132	32	3	24	82	80	67	173	18	0.237	0.325	0.434	0.759
OF	Gwynn, Tony	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RF	Hart, Corey	27	146	518	148	37	6	20	77	83	34	92	21	0.286	0.336	0.496	0.832

Non-Roster STI
RHP	Bateman, Joe	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
OF/2B	Bourgeois, Jason	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
LHP	Capuano, Chris	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
CF	Duffy, Chris	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
LHP	Gulin, Lindsay	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
LHP	Narron, Sam	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
LHP	Narveson, Chris	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
RF	Nixon, Trot	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1B	Thorman, Scott	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

0 recs | Comment 21 comments

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Comments

It should be noted

that James projections are almost always on the high side. The one that really strikes me is Bush: 3.99 really?

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Dec 27, 2008 9:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The batters seem more accurate than the pitchers.

If Bushie can avoid “that big inning,” its plausible.

How far will this one fly?

by Rendezvous on Dec 27, 2008 9:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Just saying in general

If you average out the James projections versus the other ones out their, the James projections are usually the most optimistic.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Dec 27, 2008 9:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That is true.

Its good to be an optimist. More of a glass is half full.

How far will this one fly?

by Rendezvous on Dec 27, 2008 10:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Or put another way...

the run environment for the projections doesn’t really add up. From what I’ve read elsewhere the batter projections apparently work out to at least .5 R/G higher than the pitcher projections, which obviously doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Whether that means that both sides are optimistic by a quarter run, or one side’s okay and the other is wildly optimistic, I have no idea.

by Zeyes on Dec 29, 2008 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yes but

i’m not a big fan of simpler systems like MARCEL because it seems like they just do a more basic regression to a player-type mean. i’m no sabermetric expert when it comes to that, but is seems to me that PECOTA’s weighted means are still the best (i.e. most accurate). i have no idea what Bill James does to get his projections.

jihad, do you have a blog or do you write for other sites? i have really enjoyed the posts you are making here. you are doing good work. thank you.

"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We're trying to see pitches and see what we can do. ... I'm not going to sit there and walk, though. I'll eventually find it, and hopefully we'll still be in it." -Corey Hart

by baumann on Jan 2, 2009 8:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd take Pecota, Chone, or Zips over Marcels every time, too

That’s what it’s supposed to be, though. Marcels are just supposed to be the bare minimum for those systems to beat.

I really don’t know why James are so optomistic.

In re: my writing, I don’t write for anything else, no. I’d rather just chime in with a fanpost here when something strikes me, while I’m in high school now, anyway. There are plenty of transaction analysts out there and writing a generic post whenever something Brewer-related happens isn’t the way I’d like to operate, and I don’t think anyone can top the day-to-day news coverage, analysis, and conversation we have here at BCB.

- Also: I “their/there” failed in that upper comment.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 2, 2009 11:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i just watched an interview with barry sanders.

i think you remind me of him, jihad.

by baumann on Jan 3, 2009 10:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What's it coming to

when you see Soup’s projection of 4.7 ERA and feel encouraged.

I think McClung and Gallardo will be lower. I don’t see Bush hitting 4.0.

by ol Pete on Dec 27, 2008 11:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Braden Looper's looking at 4.03, according to James.

And a Tim Redding character at 5.01.

How far will this one fly?

by Rendezvous on Dec 28, 2008 1:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

.984 OPS out of Braunie

I’d take that.

by bklanecky on Dec 28, 2008 9:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

if these numbers are accurate, i'd be ecstatic.

Fielder’s numbers are exactly what I would expect from him. This is a fun team to watch with Bush under 4.00 and Braun hitting .310 and 44 homers.

Although, if Hart hits .290, I would expect more HR and SB

by tcyoung on Dec 28, 2008 5:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'd be pretty ecstatic too

Looks like Braun is in for a pretty good season. I’m expecting a better BA from JJ and better numbers from McClung and Gallardo though.

If Weeks’ numbers turn out to be accurate would that be considered his breakout season that we’ve all been waiting for?

"my goodness"

by BrewHaHeather on Dec 28, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Only if he does it a full year and doesn’t do a 2007 to get it.

by HRF on Dec 28, 2008 10:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Assuming you mean 2006, and that he doesn't play that many games,

Is that a bad thing?

by tcyoung on Dec 29, 2008 9:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

And to be honest

I’d be extremely happy with Rickie hitting 260

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Dec 30, 2008 8:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

oh

and it’s interesting to see the brewers not winning a game by less than 3, being that there is no one with a single save in the projection

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Dec 30, 2008 9:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Torres was projected with 23 saves.

And Gagne with 5. The pitchers projections are often a bit skewered, as Mr. James also included Sheets and Sabathia with the Brew Crew,

How far will this one fly?

by Rendezvous on Dec 30, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

gotcha

btw, rickie in his age 26 year. This is where, at least according to BP’s Baseball By The Numbers, he’s going to make his biggest strides.

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Dec 30, 2008 10:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Just stop it.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 2, 2009 9:24 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Made the batting averages longer and added Trevor Hoffman

How far will this one fly?

by Rendezvous on Jan 8, 2009 6:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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