2009 Bill James Brewers Projections (Updated 1/8/09)
Straight from the Bill James Handbook, these are the current Brewers 40-man roster and Spring Training Invitees projections for 2009. Take it as it is. As you can see, roughly half of the team have no projections, but such is life. I hope you enjoy looking at this as much as I enjoyed typing it in. If you would like to know the Bill James projection for any player, just ask in the comments.
Note: If a player is added to any list, the projections will be added with them. I apologize for the lengthy space at the bottom, it simply won't go away.
| Position | Name | 2009 Bill James Projections | |||||||||||||||
| Pitchers | Age | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | HB | W | L | Sv | BR/9 | ERA | |||
| RHP | Aguilar, Omar | 23 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RHP | Bush, Dave | 29 | 31 | 29 | 192 | 195 | 27 | 44 | 128 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 11.8 | 3.99 | ||
| RHP | Coffey, Todd | 28 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RHP | DiFelice, Mark | 32 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RHP | Dillard, Tim | 25 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RHP | Gallardo, Yovani | 23 | 31 | 31 | 196 | 179 | 13 | 76 | 201 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 11.8 | 3.61 | ||
| RHP | Hoffman, Trevor | 41 | 42 | 0 | 42 | 35 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 9.6 | 2.94 | ||
| RHP | Julio, Jorge | 30 | 30 | 0 | 34 | 32 | 5 | 17 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13.2 | 4.5 | ||
| RHP | McClung, Seth | 28 | 37 | 7 | 85 | 81 | 10 | 49 | 73 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 14.3 | 4.69 | ||
| RHP | Morlan, Eduardo | 22 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| LHP | Parra, Manny | 26 | 30 | 26 | 154 | 156 | 11 | 61 | 142 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 3.95 | ||
| RHP | Pena, Luis | 25 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RHP | Periard, Alex | 21 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RHP | Riske, David | 32 | 38 | 0 | 33 | 30 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12.5 | 3.95 | ||
| RHP | Rogers, Mark | 22 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RHP | Scarpetta, Cody | 20 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| LHP | Stetter, Mitch | 27 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RHP | Suppan, Jeff | 34 | 31 | 31 | 184 | 205 | 23 | 62 | 100 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 13.4 | 4.7 | ||
| LHP | Swindle, R.J. | 25 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RHP | Villanueva, Carlos | 25 | 47 | 4 | 92 | 85 | 13 | 32 | 79 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 11.7 | 3.85 | ||
| Catchers | Age | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Kendall, Jason | 35 | 133 | 445 | 118 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 49 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 6 | 0.265 | 0.343 | 0.33 | 0.674 | |
| Rivera, Mike | 32 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Rottino, Vinny | 28 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Salome, Angel | 22 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Infielders | Age | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| SS | Escobar, Alcides | 22 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1B | Fielder, Prince | 25 | 160 | 595 | 167 | 35 | 1 | 40 | 97 | 110 | 84 | 128 | 4 | 0.281 | 0.379 | 0.545 | 0.923 |
| 3B | Gamel, Mat | 23 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| IF | Hall, Bill | 29 | 131 | 418 | 103 | 28 | 2 | 15 | 57 | 54 | 37 | 122 | 6 | 0.246 | 0.311 | 0.431 | 0.741 |
| SS | Hardy, J.J. | 26 | 142 | 556 | 152 | 32 | 2 | 23 | 79 | 77 | 51 | 79 | 2 | 0.273 | 0.336 | 0.462 | 0.798 |
| 2B/CF | Iribarren, Hernan | 24 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3B | Lamb, Mike | 33 | 97 | 237 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 32 | 22 | 36 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.335 | 0.405 | 0.74 |
| 3B | McGehee, Casey | 26 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1B/OF | Nelson, Brad | 25 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2B | Weeks, Rickie | 26 | 137 | 510 | 131 | 28 | 6 | 17 | 100 | 55 | 73 | 118 | 21 | 0.257 | 0.364 | 0.435 | 0.799 |
| Outfielders | Age | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| LF | Braun, Ryan | 25 | 151 | 603 | 187 | 43 | 6 | 44 | 112 | 120 | 46 | 117 | 16 | 0.31 | 0.364 | 0.62 | 0.984 |
| CF | Cameron, Mike | 36 | 145 | 558 | 132 | 32 | 3 | 24 | 82 | 80 | 67 | 173 | 18 | 0.237 | 0.325 | 0.434 | 0.759 |
| OF | Gwynn, Tony | 26 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| RF | Hart, Corey | 27 | 146 | 518 | 148 | 37 | 6 | 20 | 77 | 83 | 34 | 92 | 21 | 0.286 | 0.336 | 0.496 | 0.832 |
| Non-Roster STI | |||||||||||||||||
| RHP | Bateman, Joe | 28 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| OF/2B | Bourgeois, Jason | 26 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LHP | Capuano, Chris | 30 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| CF | Duffy, Chris | 28 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LHP | Gulin, Lindsay | 32 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| LHP | Narron, Sam | 27 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| LHP | Narveson, Chris | 27 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| RF | Nixon, Trot | 34 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1B | Thorman, Scott | 26 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
0 recs |
21 comments
Comments
It should be noted
that James projections are almost always on the high side. The one that really strikes me is Bush: 3.99 really?
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on Dec 27, 2008 9:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The batters seem more accurate than the pitchers.
If Bushie can avoid “that big inning,” its plausible.
How far will this one fly?
by Rendezvous on Dec 27, 2008 9:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just saying in general
If you average out the James projections versus the other ones out their, the James projections are usually the most optimistic.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on Dec 27, 2008 9:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That is true.
Its good to be an optimist. More of a glass is half full.
How far will this one fly?
by Rendezvous on Dec 27, 2008 10:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Or put another way...
the run environment for the projections doesn’t really add up. From what I’ve read elsewhere the batter projections apparently work out to at least .5 R/G higher than the pitcher projections, which obviously doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Whether that means that both sides are optimistic by a quarter run, or one side’s okay and the other is wildly optimistic, I have no idea.
by Zeyes on Dec 29, 2008 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yes but
i’m not a big fan of simpler systems like MARCEL because it seems like they just do a more basic regression to a player-type mean. i’m no sabermetric expert when it comes to that, but is seems to me that PECOTA’s weighted means are still the best (i.e. most accurate). i have no idea what Bill James does to get his projections.
jihad, do you have a blog or do you write for other sites? i have really enjoyed the posts you are making here. you are doing good work. thank you.
"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We're trying to see pitches and see what we can do. ... I'm not going to sit there and walk, though. I'll eventually find it, and hopefully we'll still be in it." -Corey Hart
by baumann on Jan 2, 2009 8:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Pecota, Chone, or Zips over Marcels every time, too
That’s what it’s supposed to be, though. Marcels are just supposed to be the bare minimum for those systems to beat.
I really don’t know why James are so optomistic.
In re: my writing, I don’t write for anything else, no. I’d rather just chime in with a fanpost here when something strikes me, while I’m in high school now, anyway. There are plenty of transaction analysts out there and writing a generic post whenever something Brewer-related happens isn’t the way I’d like to operate, and I don’t think anyone can top the day-to-day news coverage, analysis, and conversation we have here at BCB.
- Also: I “their/there” failed in that upper comment.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on Jan 2, 2009 11:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i just watched an interview with barry sanders.
i think you remind me of him, jihad.
"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We're trying to see pitches and see what we can do. ... I'm not going to sit there and walk, though. I'll eventually find it, and hopefully we'll still be in it." -Corey Hart
by baumann on Jan 3, 2009 10:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What's it coming to
when you see Soup’s projection of 4.7 ERA and feel encouraged.
I think McClung and Gallardo will be lower. I don’t see Bush hitting 4.0.
by ol Pete on Dec 27, 2008 11:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Braden Looper's looking at 4.03, according to James.
And a Tim Redding character at 5.01.
How far will this one fly?
by Rendezvous on Dec 28, 2008 1:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
.984 OPS out of Braunie
I’d take that.
by bklanecky on Dec 28, 2008 9:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
if these numbers are accurate, i'd be ecstatic.
Fielder’s numbers are exactly what I would expect from him. This is a fun team to watch with Bush under 4.00 and Braun hitting .310 and 44 homers.
Although, if Hart hits .290, I would expect more HR and SB
by tcyoung on Dec 28, 2008 5:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'd be pretty ecstatic too
Looks like Braun is in for a pretty good season. I’m expecting a better BA from JJ and better numbers from McClung and Gallardo though.
If Weeks’ numbers turn out to be accurate would that be considered his breakout season that we’ve all been waiting for?
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 28, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Only if he does it a full year and doesn’t do a 2007 to get it.
by HRF on Dec 28, 2008 10:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming you mean 2006, and that he doesn't play that many games,
Is that a bad thing?
by tcyoung on Dec 29, 2008 9:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
And to be honest
I’d be extremely happy with Rickie hitting 260
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on Dec 30, 2008 8:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
oh
and it’s interesting to see the brewers not winning a game by less than 3, being that there is no one with a single save in the projection
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on Dec 30, 2008 9:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Torres was projected with 23 saves.
And Gagne with 5. The pitchers projections are often a bit skewered, as Mr. James also included Sheets and Sabathia with the Brew Crew,
How far will this one fly?
by Rendezvous on Dec 30, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
gotcha
btw, rickie in his age 26 year. This is where, at least according to BP’s Baseball By The Numbers, he’s going to make his biggest strides.
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on Dec 30, 2008 10:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just stop it.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 2, 2009 9:24 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Made the batting averages longer and added Trevor Hoffman
How far will this one fly?
by Rendezvous on Jan 8, 2009 6:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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