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Trying to get the most out of Ben Sheets

So, as you probably know, the Brewers offered Ben Sheets arbitration on Monday. He has until Sunday to accept or decline. Offering Sheets arbitration ensures one of the following three outcomes:

  • Sheets declines arbitration and signs with another team. The Brewers get two additional draft picks between the middle of the first round and the middle of the second round in the 2009 draft.
  • Sheets accepts arbitration and either heads to a hearing in February or negotiates a new deal with the Brewers before the hearing.
  • Sheets declines arbitration to keep his options open, but still signs a new deal with the Brewers.

None of those outcomes are particularly bad, but one does carry a fair amount of risk. For those not familiar with the process, in arbitration both sides submit a dollar value they think the player's services are worth for 2009. Both sides present their case to an arbitrator, who will in turn choose one of the two figures, with no middle ground.

The problem with Ben Sheets is that there's a relatively wide spectrum of arguments you can make regarding what he's worth. Eric Seidman of FanGraphs took a look at Sheets' value yesterday and even considering his fragile status, he estimated Sheets' 2009 value at $16.25 million.

If the two teams go to arbitration, Sheets and his representatives could point out that:

  • Sheets has had an ERA+ over 116 in each of the last five seasons, including 139 in 2008.
  • He has a 5.1 strikeout to walk ratio over that same time span, and strikes out 8.4 hitters per nine innings.
  • He's been an NL All Star in three of the last five seasons, and started the All Star game in 2008.
  • In 2008 he tied for the NL lead in shutouts, finished second in complete games and fifth in ERA.

Given all of that, it's reasonable to believe they'd ask for as much as $18-20 million. You can make a case for comparing Sheets to A.J. Burnett, who's believed to be seeking a five year deal worth $75 million or more. In fact, Sheets has similar stats to Burnett despite being two years younger.

On the flip side, the Brewers could point out that:

  • 2008 was the first time since 2004 that Sheets has made 30 starts, and he hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2004.
  • His willingness to work hard at rehab and appropriately prepare himself for the challenges of a 162 game season have been called into question.
  • Sheets' 13 wins in 2008 were a career high, and he's only three games above .500 (86-83) for his career.
  • He's had eight starts over the last three seasons (roughly one in nine starts) where he failed to pitch four full innings.

Given all of that, it's possible the Brewers' arbitration figure could be as low as $10-12 million.

That's a difference of $6-10 million, and it could just come down to which arbitrator hears the case. It's probably fair to assume neither side wants to leave a difference that large to chance. So, if Sheets accepts arbitration, the two sides would seem to have some incentive to work out a deal in advance to avoid the risk. Here's the deal I'd propose:

Two years, $30 million. A team option for a third year at $20 million. If Sheets can either make 30+ starts or pitch 200+ innings in both of the first two seasons of the deal, the option for the third year becomes a player option.

Sheets seems unlikely to take an incentive based deal, so this is likely as close as the Brewers could get to pay-for-performance with him. If he can pitch like an ace for the first two seasons of a deal, then he's earned the right to be paid like one in the third season, either by the Brewers or someone else.

So what do you think? Would you offer this deal? Vote in the poll below.

Poll
How would you feel about offering Ben Sheets the contract offered above (2 years, $30 million, team option for a third year at $20 million, with the possibility to change to a player option given performance thresholds are met)?
I can live with that.
180 votes
I can't live with that, and would offer Sheets more.
6 votes
I can't live with that, and would offer Sheets less.
22 votes
I can't live with that. I'll take my chances with arbitration
24 votes
I'm just hoping Sheets declines arbitration and goes somewhere else.
34 votes

266 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Display:

FWIW

Ken Rosenthal thinks Ben Sheets will turn down arbitration. Oddly, MLBtraderumors.com reads that and thinks he’ll accept arbitration. You two need to work it out and get back to us.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 3, 2008 3:13 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So we would pay 30 million

to have him pitch one full season if we are lucky(figure he will miss half the season in both years) Sorry not worth the risk which we all know is very high and very real

Let me spell it for you Cub fans O N E H U N D R E D A N D O N E Y E A R S

by WSB Chris on Dec 3, 2008 4:06 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He’s averaged 170 innings and 27.5 starts the last 2 years. Why would it be considered “lucky” to get a half season from him?

by Supertramp on Dec 3, 2008 4:13 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is a risk involved.

And if there wasn’t, he’d be a $25 mil/year pitcher.

I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.

by KLSnow on Dec 3, 2008 4:28 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Ben Sheets.

There, i said it. I would think even 25 starts from Sheets and 6-7 from a replacement level player would be worth Jeff Suppan-like money.

It is what it is.

by coolig on Dec 3, 2008 4:19 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Depressing thought

Suppan is a replacement starter, at least judging by his 3.1 VORP last year.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 3, 2008 5:48 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huh.

Then why did I hate watching him pitch so much?

Could it be that I’m uninformed and unreasonable? (Of course, I realized I’m both of those things.)

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 3, 2008 6:56 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are you under the impression that is good?

3.1 VORP sucks. That means, over the course of the entire year, he prevented 3 fewer runs than random AAA guy like DiFelice or Gulin would have. That’s .3 of a win for $12 million. The going rate is $5 million for 10 VORP, or 1 win.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 3, 2008 8:55 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No. I'm not.

I thought he was worse that a replacement starter. But hey, thanks for the condescension.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 3, 2008 9:04 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just trying to point out that he is crap. I think we agree on this principle.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by Jordan M on Dec 3, 2008 9:39 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That we do.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 4, 2008 4:51 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just saw that Pedroia got the MVP

Is he like Joe Morgan with the glove or just an east coaster with pale skinned?

by Braunstalker on Dec 3, 2008 9:11 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jeezus, where have you been?

Lordz Of Vengeance....If I'm not drunk, I'm at work.

I am also pro-Rodgers.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Dec 3, 2008 9:55 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Sheeter and would approve of this.

by HRF on Dec 3, 2008 10:05 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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