I think it’s the absolute opposite problem. The potential is there, but they don’t have any sure things right now.

I’m going to have a little fun here:

Gamel: Could improve his defense to major league average and hit .300/.380/.500 every year, or could continue to suck at defense and top out around .270/.330/.400 as a first basemen or corner outfielder.

Escobar: Could undergo a Jose Reyes/Hanley Ramirez-like power spike and hit .300/.360/.480 and be an all-star with stellar D at short, or he could fail to hit in the majors and turn into Adam Everett.

Salome: Could stick at catcher and put up monster numbers, or he could falter to the BABIP gods and only be a .270/.320/.400 guy and have to move to left or get traded to the AL.

just how I consider the term “prospect.” I see a prospect ranking like this as “who is the most likely to make it to the major league club,” and then further sorted as “who is going to have the biggest impact once they make the major league club.”

That’s why I can’t get behind the Lawrie movement, even though he has tons of potential: the minor leagues are littered with 1st round picks who get hurt, or who turn out to suck, or who decide to turn down baseball for a career in vaudeville (“Odor-izzi! Ha-cha-cha-chaaa!”). Too much can happen, a la Brad Nelson.

This isn’t a slight against Lowrie: with few exceptions, like Braun or YoGa, I don’t think I’d list any prospect below AA in the top 10. In a couple of years, though, I’d be sorely disappointed if Lawrie isn’t on the list.

From BA

Brett Lawrie, a product of Brookswood Secondary School in Langley, B.C. The MVP of Canada’s junior national team in 2007, Lawrie is one of the most gifted high school hitters in this draft. He has the ability to hit for power and average, along with an advanced approach and plate discipline for his age.
As with Hewitt, Lawrie doesn’t come without questions. It’s still uncertain what position he’ll play. The best-case scenario is catcher. Lawrie has the arm strength and soft enough hands to make it work behind the plate, but he’s also raw back there. Third base is another possibility, as is left field. Obviously, the lesser the position he plays, the more that will be expected out of his bat.

From SaberScouting

17. Brett Lawrie, C/UT, Brookswood HS (Canada)
Bio: 5′11, 200, Bats R, Throws R, 18 years old
The Skinny: Lawrie has a lot of helium headed into the days before the draft, but if you asked most scouts who saw him last summer, they may tell you that they saw this coming. The Canadian slugger has played catcher effectively and has showed big upside on offense and defense, flashing plus raw power and a plus arm behind the dish. He also has above-average speed, solid contact skills, plate discipline, and developing defensive skills behind the plate. Lawrie also is surprisingly refined at the pate for a Canadian prospect that hasn’t had as many at-bats as most elite American prep prospects. His advanced bat was made known to teams when he had a 21-for-30 hitting streak on one swing through spring training camps, and hit 3 homers in a double-header on another trip thorough camps, facing some extended spring and low-minors arms, but also some high-level arms, including extra base hits off of Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies. Lawrie continues to allay fears of a minor league flameout with all-out makeup and some scouts think he may work too hard. The advanced bat and periodic loss of interest defensively may even push him off of catcher to speed up the path to the big leagues, but Lawrie could play almost anywhere on the field except shortstop. Toronto and Minnesota are known to have interest in the mid-first round.
Pros: Bat, Power, Arm
Cons: Raw Tools, Lack of competition
Comparison: Upside of Eric Byrnes or Russell Martin

From Takkle with video

A pure hitter with an intelligent and advanced approach to the game. The ball really gets off his bat with great life from gap to gap, thanks to his combination of strength and bat speed. He has yet to find a home defensively. Some still give him a chance to stay behind the plate, where his value would be best, while many are beginning to peg him as a second baseman.

The theme seems to be that he can be a catcher, but he’s athletic enough to play elsewhere

I didn’t mean to imply that he’d be headed for corner outfield or something like that (as Gamel might well be). But the gap in hitting ability between the average catcher and the average 3B is still quite large, so while Lawrie’s bat could make him a star at catcher with sufficient defensive skills, he might “only” be average or a bit above at third. That’s significant, and why I’d really like to see some evidence of how he’s going to perform first before I’d rank him above a guy like Lucroy who’s shown to have a fairly complete (if not earth-shattering) package at the same position.

Obviously if Lawrie hits like Piazza, his defense will matter very little and he’ll be given every opportunity to stick at C, but that’s also not a scenario I’m willing to simply take on faith. (From a college draftee maybe, but not from an 18-year old.)

Not that any of this means I’m down on Lawrie’s prospects or anything – if we end up with, say, a third baseman with average to above-average offense and defense I’ll be thrilled, of course – but when comparing him to players who are at least as high up on the defensive spectrum and have already proved something, I’d just like a little less uncertainty first.