a 2 year deal at what he got last year + an option year with a decent raise could get him back in the fold. So it could be conceivable to get him at a 2 year 25 mil deal with an option at about 15 mil would be something he’d jump at in a heartbeat considering the market

Sheets at 10 mil per year only has to throw about 150 innings for us to go into the positives on the investment. In the last four years, his lowest WAR was 2.5. Even if you assume he throws 150ish innings at 2007 levels (worst of his recent career), he’s worth about $12 mil. The risk is that he starts getting injured and missing large portions of the year. I think the benefits of getting a potential 5 WAR pitcher on a $10 mil deal outweighs all of the risk and then some.

He probably should have.

Milwaukee wasn’t (and you could argue still isn’t) a plum destination for free agents. That doesn’t always mean the Brewers would have to offer more to encourage players to join the fold, but it doesn’t help them get discounts.

unless you’re comparing apples and oranges, i.e. Lowe’s performance prior to signing this next contract with Suppan’s performance after signing his.

Quick and dirty apples to apples comparison: over the last three seasons, Lowe has averaged an ERA+ of about 125. Suppan had a 110 over his last three seasons before signing the Brewers contract (in admittedly slightly fewer innings per year). At any rate, those 15 points of ERA+ translate to about half an earned run per 9 innings (3.60 vs. 4.10 or so, park-neutral), or 11 runs over a full season (~200 innings). That’s worth about 5 million in FA salary now. Granted, the market level for salaries has increased in the intervening years (especially pushing up that $/marginal win value), but Lowe is also 4 years older now than Suppan was at the time, so it looks like a comparable overpay to me if he gets 4/60.